If America and China go to war, America will no doubt attempt to blockade China. I frequently see commentary that America could collapse China with a blockade without any other military action. I doubt that is true, certainly not in any reasonably rapid time line. But nobody really talks about the effects of a long war on America. Would cutting off China be just as bad for America?
If China forces a confrontation over Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own territory, the United States will need to respond decisively: The implications are enormous, potentially including a global economic crisis far worse than the shock caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Right now, America isn’t ready.
As a report from a House panel concluded last year: “The United States lacks a contingency plan for the economic and financial impacts of conflict” with China.
Even aside from the question of how long China could fight a war under American-organized blockade--and Germany's ability to cope (that's "cope" and not "thrive") for nearly four years of fighting until its army was defeated on the Western Front under a near-total British blockade is not encouraging (and add in Russia under lesser sanctions, although even that is undermining Russia's ability to wage war notwithstanding Putin's Potemkin Facade)--cutting China off from the world also cuts off the world off from China.
Before China industrialized, blockading China was almost irrelevant to the rest of the world. Now that China is fully integrated into the global supply chain, cutting off China would harm America and the rest of the world, too.
Silver bullets never work out.
And tip to Instapundit for the Potemkin Facade link.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.
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NOTE: I made the image with Bing. It isn't quite what I wanted, but it's good enough for blogging work!
