Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Belarus under Lukashenko has tried to balance relations between the West and Russia to preserve its independence. Since the creeping Anschluss was carried out by Russia prior to the Winter War of 2022, balance has been impossible. Will Belarus try to reverse Russia's pull and try to crawl to the West despite Russia's grip?
Last month ISW wrote that Belarus seemingly agreed to become even more deeply controlled by Russia:
The Kremlin continues to advance its strategic effort to de facto annex Belarus and further expand the Russian military’s presence in Belarus through the Union State framework. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko signed a new Union State treaty on security guarantees at a meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union State in Minsk, Belarus on December 6. Lukashenko made a public appeal to Putin that Russia deploy Oreshnik ballistic missiles to Belarus under the condition that the Belarusian military-political leadership would determine the Oreshnik's targets should the missile ever launch from Belarusian territory. Putin responded to Lukashenko's request by stating that Russia could deploy Oreshnik systems to Belarus by mid-2025 on the grounds of the new Union State agreement on security guarantees and as Russia scales up the production of Oreshnik ballistic missiles. Putin noted that the new security treaty allows Russia and Belarus to use "all available forces and means" as part of Russia’s and Belarus’ mutual defense obligations.
I've long noted the creeping Anschluss, which accelerated before Putin ordered his troops to invade Ukraine in 2022.
I've also wondered if Lukashenko really is willing to submit to Russia. Could Belarus be trying to get nuclear missiles into Belarus in order to capture them? ISW certainly sees such motivation in play:
Lukashenko is likely trying to preserve Belarusian sovereignty against Moscow by advocating that Belarus control Russian weapons deployed in Belarus – an endeavor Lukashenko has historically failed at.
If Lukashenko can disarm and eject the Russians from Belarus, he could claim to have a nuclear deterrent to prevent a Russian invasion. Russia won't know for sure that his officers controlling the nuclear warheads didn't take bribes to give Belarus control.
Unless Russia knows it placed inert nuclear warheads in Belarus to avoid such a ploy, of course.
I wonder about the path Belarus is taking because it doesn't make sense that Lukashenko would volunteer Belarus to be a target for NATO nuclear weapons as a favor to Russia. And after Russia failed to decisively support Assad, how does Lukashenko judge Russia's ability to hold Belarus?
What else is going on behind the facade of brotherly solidarity?
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War, including the revived Syria multi-war, in this post.
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NOTE: I made the image with Bing.
