China's large maneuvers around Taiwan late last year could reveal China's intention to isolate the Taiwan Strait. I think that is likely, but we should not count on that limitation.
This seems to be a reasonable conclusion:
Taiwan’s MND assessed that the military actions aimed not only at rehearsing a comprehensive blockade of Taiwan but also at extending the PLA’s operational reach, with a broader objective of “internalizing” the Taiwan Strait. This aligns with the PLA’s operational principle of “training where battles are fought.”
"Internalizing" the Taiwan Strait as China's territorial waters fits with my view on a Chinese invasion of Taiwan that China would want to portray Taiwan as an internal matter rather than immediately internationalize the war by striking American and/or Japanese bases in the region to de-fang a potential Western response.
I don't know whether a Western blockade of China could succeed soon enough to matter--or even succeed at all. But I think China would prefer not to test their resilience with the threats of internal unrest and possibly nuclear escalation if the CCP feels unrest threatens its power.
But of course, we must not count on China ignoring our forces. Especially with forward forces deployed in too few bases. I'd rather keep our best forces out of an enemy's reach to avoid tempting them to strike first.
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NOTE: I made the image with Bing.
