I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
While Russia tries to freeze Ukrainians by bombing their electric grid, Russians begin to freeze in the dark because electricity (in some areas) and central heating plants are breaking down. Sanctions hurt.
Killing Ukrainians is neither fun nor easy: "By 2024 Russia allows men as old as 70 to enlist and receive the cash payments. Many of these men were grandfathers and admitted they did it to provide for their orphaned grandchildren. The fathers had died in the war ..."
A gray hull line in the sea: "The Philippines and the United States carried out joint maritime exercises for a fifth time in the South China Sea, Manila’s armed forces said on Sunday, in a move that would likely irk China. "
Shadow war: "In late 2024 Shin Bet, the Israeli security agency reported that it had arrested seven Israelis who had been operating as Iranian spies since the October 2023 Hamas uprising in southern Israel. The seven spies had operated from 2022 t0 2024, [conducting recon useful for strikes.]"
Assuming the war is actually over, Hamas emerges from the rubble they ensured by using Gaza as a human shield to claim victory. How many more such victories could they endure?
Sweden's prime minister warned of the Russian hybrid war threat to the region: "The Swedish Armed Forces statement, titled “Hybrid operations harm Sweden,” quoted Swedish Chief of Defense Force Gen. Leif Michael Claesson." It's a form of war, of course. But one easy to ignore if you choose.
CRS report to Congress on the Ford-class carrier.
I suspect this author is just being wrongly fixated on a word that is irrelevant to the goal of prioritizing preparations to fight and win. Remember the Land Warrior project? But sure, we need soldiers and not warriors. Warriors fight as individuals. Soldiers fight as a team. Soldiers beat warriors.
Has China's growth over the last two or three years slumped to 2% notwithstanding robust growth officially reported? I wouldn't be surprised. I've long droned on about the limits to China's rapid growth.
Is Russia hiding excessive, banned nuclear strength? "A newly released U.S. State Department report highlights mounting concerns over Russia’s failure to comply with key verification provisions of the New START Treaty." Or hiding nuclear weakness?
Poland received the first 28 of 250 M1A2 Abrams tanks ordered: "Poland has its first batch of the United States’ most modern battle tank, taking delivery of more than two dozen of them amid a broader military buildup in conjunction with its growing role in hosting American personnel."
This is what civilian control means: "Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Linda Lee Fagan was abruptly fired Monday by the new acting head of the Department of Homeland Security, precipitating a leadership shakeup for the force." She wasn't on my radar as a problem. But we need every service in the fight.
Why wasn't this done a week ago? "Prosecutors in New York City accused a leader of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, and three of his followers of trying to organize an assassination of a government critic in 2022." Maybe because Iran has long had a hall pass to murder foes here.
Israel has problems in Lebanon if it hopes the Lebanese army can provide security against Hezbollah re-establishing itself in southern Lebanon. Will Israel need to establish friendly Lebanese militias there (again)? And don't even try to claim the UN will do the job.
Lockheed Martin (I have a small number of their shares, FYI) offers a AGM-179 JAGM alternative to Harpoon anti-ship missiles installed on Navy Burke destroyers.
It is true that Ukraine has shown more skill at combined arms operations than the Russians have. But until Ukraine can do that with at least multi-brigade operations, the advantage is not significant.
Our gun barrel liners are better than Russian liners, but we can still only produce 30 per month: "The U.S. Army is moving to establish a second production source for barrels for 155mm M777 towed howitzers in response to what it calls 'unprecedented demand' from Ukraine."
When counter-measures deny cheap FPV suicide drones free rein over the battlefield, will this replace them? "The U.S. Army is looking to give its still-in-development anti-armor guided 155mm artillery shells the ability to ‘collaborate’ with each other to help find their targets and otherwise be more effective."
The Abrams tank is surely good--for now, with additional protection added. I'm certainly happy we didn't lose it. But it is an old design with limits on modernization. And we don't actually build new tanks. Further, the Army Science Board doesn't see it being a first-line vehicle by 2040. What comes next?
Russia is lying about the health of its economy. Of course it is.
NATO--and perhaps China, as well--pales as a threat to Russia compared to demographics: "Russia's economy has a dire demographic problem on its hands, and the nation could see its population slashed in half by the end of the century, an Atlantic Council report says." Waging war doesn't help.
Can HTS "bring together a patchwork of former rebel groups, each with their own leaders and ideology"? Southern non-HTS rebels declined to show restraint when outside powers tried to include Assad (and save him?) in talks. The Syrian multi-war seems to be evolving rather than ending after the fall of Assad.
I assume we consume these faster than me make them: "The U.S. Navy’s use of expendable Nulka decoys in combat has highlighted the need to expand the ability of its ships to launch off-board decoying electronic attacks, including ones lasting tens of minutes or more."
Even if South Korean President Yoon's reasons for declaring martial law were illegal, has the opposition illegally escalated the dispute to a crisis, justifying his concern even if martial law was not justified? I've been hesitant to make a firm judgment on this crisis. Perhaps justifiably. Who are the insurrectionists?
If Israelis define victory over Hamas as getting their (surviving) hostages back, Israel guarantees every rabid jihadi enemy will take even more hostages.
Russia has a lot of problems but seems to want to do or die trying to conquer Ukraine. Strategersky.
America's and China's geography intersect at naval power (which included air power). As I've long said, whatever our problems are with geography and the tyranny of distance, I wouldn't trade places with China. Time has eroded our military advantage since I wrote that. But the geography remains the same.
Surge of support: "DoD will begin augmenting its forces at the southwest border with an additional ~1500 ground personnel, as well as helicopters with associated crews, and intelligence analysts to support increased detection and monitoring efforts."
Right now our interests have good overlap: "Boosting India’s naval capabilities is one of the best ways the United States can counter Beijing’s rising power in the Indian Ocean, an expert in South Asian security said Wednesday." India definitely needs better naval capabilities for its own defense needs.
The Army could get hammered: "The strategy targets both the Army’s active-duty cohort and the National Guard and calls for deactivation of four Stryker brigades, six infantry brigades and two aviation brigades." In 1997, with similar thoughts in the air, I wrote this paper. Add in this, this, this, and this, too. Sigh.
The facade is flimsy: "President Vladimir Putin has grown increasingly concerned about distortions in Russia's wartime economy, just as Donald Trump pushes for an end to the Ukraine conflict, five sources with knowledge of the situation told Reuters."
Make it so: "On Wednesday, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, reintroduced the Protecting Military Installations and Ranges Act, which requires a review by federal authorities before entities linked to China, Russia, Iran or North Korea can purchase land within 100 miles of an armed forces installation."
Pirate vessels should be sunk on sight: "The Somali pirates are back in action. It’s been eleven years since the last outbreak of piracy in the Red Sea. Violence against commercial shipping in the Red Sea region began in 2010 when it had reached levels of activity not seen in over a century."
Holding the initiative papers over this problem: "As Russian conscripts and newly acquired contract soldiers continued to suffer casualties in Ukraine, the quality of those troops and their willingness to fight declined. This was accelerated by the even greater decline in the number of combat officers available."
The Quad (Australia, India, Japan, and the United States) eases into defense cooperation.
It is unclear if survivors of the first wave will go home: "North Korea will reportedly deploy new military personnel to Russia by mid-March 2025, likely to maintain the current pace and intensity of attritional, infantry-led assaults in Kursk Oblast." Does Kim want "infected" troops who saw the outside world back?
The jihad takes many forms. Sometimes it is flying planes into our buildings. Sometimes it is driving around little girls to be gang-r*ped. Sadly, too many Westerners feel too fashionably guilty to object to any of it. Asking again, why do we hate us? Tip to Instapundit.
Russia is running out of troops. I've been suspicious of Russia's claim of an ever-expanding horde.
Make Haiti less of a Hell hole again. The expert for Haiti appointed by the U.N. called Haiti "apocalyptic." What would we do without U.N. experts? Maybe the U.N. should give Singapore a 20-year contract to set up an economy and government there.
No! Way! "Israeli hostages released as part of the recent ceasefire with Hamas have claimed they were held in a U.N. camp in Gaza."
I ignore ProPublica, but our new icebreaker saga rings true: "it has a type of
propulsion system susceptible to failure in ice. Its waste and discharge
systems weren’t designed to meet polar code, its helicopter pad is in
the wrong place to launch rescue operations and its rear deck is easily
swamped by big waves." Sigh.
So the ef what? "Europe considers sending troops to Ukraine if there's a ceasefire. But would Russia accept?" Ukraine and any donating states are sovereign and not bound by what Russia would accept. Russia should not be granted a veto on Western security steps.
Something new: "Ukraine is carrying out more attacks on targets deep inside Russia using a new generation of long-range drones. Ukraine is also producing over 100,000 drones a month, including more new types, especially those for attacking targets thousands of kilometers away"
Talk to him rather than Hegseth? "U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will visit Panama during his first overseas trip in the post, a source told Reuters on Thursday, as President Donald Trump makes a push for the United States to take back the Panama Canal that has angered the Central American country."
Collective defense: "Two Bundeswehr Patriot systems are set to protect a strategically important airport near Rzeszow in south-east Poland that is key to supplying war-torn Ukraine for the next six months."
That's a mobile war crime: "A North Korean multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) designed to be disguised as a common truck looks to have appeared in Russia’s Kursk region." It puts civilian vehicles at risk because an enemy can't distinguish civilian from military vehicles.
Without stealth, Ukrainian pilots are using low-level flying tactics to avoid being targeted by air defense systems until they pop up to execute their mission. In the Cold War, this was something American pilots practiced Persian Gulf War experience led us to abandon that approach. Helicopters flew low, too.
LOL: "A senior Russian official has said that Moscow will counter any moves by Western military alliance NATO to dominate the Baltic Sea."
Bouncing the legal rubble: "The Philippines will soon decide on an international platform to sue China for alleged damage to the marine environment, its justice minister said, as it pursues a second highdoesn't need no stinkin' rulings.
It's only legal under China's "law": "China's coast guard said the Philippines on Friday sent a civilian vessel to deliver provisions to its warship 'illegally grounded' at Second Thomas Shoal, a disputed atoll in the South China Sea." It's the Asian outpost of freedom (sorry Hong Kong).
Decision dominance: "Senior Army leaders established and iterated data-centric policy from as far back as 2021 for the Army to move directly toward rapidly enabling commander decisions with live data to achieve overmatch of our adversaries on future battlefields." Just don't sink to data-overload paralysis.
I hope this is just the opening position for negotiations on terms: "President Donald Trump wants to withdraw 20,000 U.S. troops from Europe and demand a subsidy from allies to pay for the remaining American military presence on the Continent, Italy’s leading news agency reported this week."
An essay on "the Panama Canal's physical and political vulnerabilities, to include 'criminal, enemy saboteur, sea drone and air drone threats' to the canal
and as well as 'U.S. hemispheric maritime commerce and infrastructure.'" Obviously, China is a problem. Let the diplomacy begin.
Honestly, with all the propaganda about the F-35 (buyers and pilots love them), I assume we prioritized aircraft production over spare parts: "All three variants of the relatively new F-35 Joint Strike Fighter have failed to hit readiness targets entirely. " With F-35s in U.S. and allied arsenals, readiness will improve.
Russia wages war on NATO in the electronic spectrum: "In late 2024, northern Finland once more suffered electronic jamming problems against GPS and the commercial GNSS system used by commercial shipping." It's not kinetics, but it's war. And could kill. Most targets won't admit Russia is attacking.
Is the party over? "China continues trying to make the best of a bad situation they cannot seem to control; a shrinking population, a workforce that is shrinking even faster and markets for its exports leveling off." The CCP has based the legitimacy of its monopoly on political power on economic growth.
Russia is used to foreigners believing its BS: "Russian President Vladimir Putin is once again attempting to obfuscate his unwillingness to participate in good-faith negotiations to end the war by blaming Ukraine for defending itself against Russia's invasion and illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory."
Putin says Ukraine must be eliminated because of the dread Nazi threat. He could declare America must be de-Nazified just by citing our own media. Tip to Instapundit.
Foreign peacekeepers may come and go, but the Haiti gangs abide: "The reality is that the large criminal gang militias have become private armies that do what they want."
Island hopping in the west Pacific: "Japan continues to expand its navy by adding some amphibious and transport ships. These will be used to supply troops stationed on small islands in the Ryukus, a chain of islands between Japan and Taiwan."
Still not completely sure who is pure in this drama: "South Korea's prosecutors indicted President Yoon Suk Yeol on Sunday on charges of leading an insurrection with his short-lived imposition of martial law on Dec. 3, the main opposition party said."
It's not safe to withdraw if Hezbollah can return: "Tensions erupted in southern Lebanon on Sunday after the deadline expired for Israeli troops to withdraw as part of a ceasefire deal reached between Israel and the Iranian-allied Lebanese Hezbollah movement."
Well if China is offering reassurances ... : "China has tried to reassure India over its plans for a mega dam in the Tibetan Plateau, which has prompted fears it will cause water shortages and damage the environment, by saying it will not try to benefit at the 'expense of its neighbours'."
Lukashenko has been the self-described dictator of Belarus since independence. He will be "re-elected" this month (funny how autocrats pay tribute to democracy with fake elections). Will he take Belarus full circle back to part of Russia? Are Belarusians doomed to being led into the larger gulag?
Whether it is incompetence or "malicious compliance" (much like slashing a public library's hours rather than lay off an administrator when a library get a budget increase less than desired), the military needs a good Roman decimation. Tip to Instapundit.
I'm ending updates to this post on the Last Hamas War. Any notable developments will either be posted in Weekend Data Dumps or posts here; or on Substack.
