Russia's nuclear sabre-rattling is losing its effect from over-use. And just maybe the sabre isn't up to a good rattle.
This failure of a Russian Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) in September is interesting:
Open-source intelligence analysts reported that imagery indicates that an unsuccessful Sarmat test caused the damage but offered differing analyses about whether an explosion occurred close to or at launch or before launch during fueling. The silo at the Yubileynaya site was reportedly converted especially to conduct Sarmat launches. Russia intends for the Sarmat ICBM to replace the Soviet-era Voevoda ICBM and accelerated the development of the Sarmat after an agreement to source components parts for Voevoda from Ukraine collapsed following the start of Russia's war against Ukraine in 2014. Sarmat's development has faced repeated delays, however, and this recent apparent failed test would be the fourth reported failed test of the Sarmat to date. Russia has only successfully tested the Sarmat once, in April 2022, and the Russian military reportedly put the missile on combat duty in September 2023. The latest apparent failed Saramat test does not necessarily indicate that Russia's existing nuclear triad is any less effective than it has been but does suggest that Russia continues to struggle with developing new missile capabilities under the pressures of international sanctions and the demands on the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) amid the war in Ukraine.
But is the test failure revealing? Sure, alone this doesn't mean Russia's nuclear arsenal is a Potemkin Threat.
But the state of the Russian military in general, which was openly revealed in the Winter War of 2022, sure does suggest that it is unlikely that Russia's vast nuclear arsenal is an island of excellence awash in a sea of military mediocrity. Sure, the missile status is separate from the warhead status. But Russia's problems are clearly broad across their military.
Given the stakes, we can hardly assume all of Russia's nukes are a bluff. But Russia has a history of bluffing about nukes. And that's their main claim to great power status. So if you had to bet about whether most are little more than decoys, that's the way to go.
How much of Russia's nuclear arsenal actually works? If the Russians have any sense at all, anything that works is aimed at China.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
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NOTE: The image was made on Bing.
