Wednesday, October 16, 2024

Iran Gears Up For a New Tanker War

The Houthi aren't waging war on Israel in the Red Sea. The Houthi are waging war on the West.

Looking at the ships struck it is clear that the Iran-supplied Houthi proxies are not fighting Israel despite loud claims of solidarity with Hamas:

The Houthis, direct proxies of Iran and indirect proxies of China, are waging a commerce raiding war against the West. 

Indeed they are. Occasional Houthi attacks on Israel combined with propaganda are a convenient smoke screen to allow Iran to build up an anti-ship capability on the Red Sea. Although the ability to hit the Suez Canal is validated with strikes as far as Israel.

As I noted back in 2015:

Iranian fanboys have gained power in Yemen and Iran is sending help. Another asset to potentially wield an oil weapon against Arab Gulf states is created.

Iran's efforts pre-date that success that has led directly to today's shipping problem.

While Iran has long had the ability to interfere with Arab oil exports out of the Persian Gulf because Iran overlooks the southern exit at the Strait of Hormuz, Arab states since the Iran-Iraq War "tanker war" that America eventually intervened in have worked to diversify export capabilities away from Iran, primarily through Red Sea ports. Iran has followed that shift to preserve its threat to wage another tanker war against the Gulf Arab states.

Why China would support Iran when China relies on Middle East oil just as other part of the world do, too, is a mystery.

So "resisting" Israel is a convenient excuse to build up Iran's anti-ship capability in the Red Sea.

Yet America just puts on a production of Resolve Theater in the Red Sea.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

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NOTE: I mined the image from my old DALL-E 3 stockpile.