I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out and subscribe! Hell, share links. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I'm also occasionally posting short data dump items on my Substack "Notes" section.
As Israel works to take down Iran's pawns that have plagued Israel for decades, let's remember that "ending" as war is not the same as "winning" a war. I know you hate it when I prattle on about checking the Definitions Section. But it is always important. Reality will not bend to pretending.
India builds SSNs and SSBNs. The process is slow "because the Indian weapons development and procurement bureaucracy is infamous for its ability to disrupt and delay weapons development programs."
Are Russians falling for their own BS? And does the West inadvertently amplify Russian disinformation efforts? That happened in the Cold War. Even the Internet doesn't pierce the bubbles that leaders live in. I think Russia fell for its long BS on NATO "threats." They fool themselves more than us, as in 2016.
One thing I hadn't considered about intermittent traffic surges from odd sources is that it is from users using VPNs. That actually makes sense since it doesn't look like someone is scraping the site for individual posts. And it certainly isn't a cyber attack.
I want to believe lack of details is for operational security: "The U.S. government’s plan to transition to a new bilateral security agreement with Iraq is about as clear as mud." But I fear it is murky to conceal the extent of the retreat that is in no way an "evolution."
The war on terror continues: "American forces killed more than three dozen members of terrorist groups in Syria in two airstrikes this past month." Keeping ISIL and other jihadis in Syria (including Iran) off balance is a forward screen for Iraq to avoid a repeat of the 2014 near-catastrophe.
Friends: "The Philippines held a joint patrol in the South China Sea that included forces from Japan, Australia, the U.S. and New Zealand on Saturday."
In for a penny, in for--well, just for the penny: "The Coast Guard will double its Guam fleet to six cutters but doesn’t plan to accompany the Philippine coast guard as it struggles to maintain territorial claims in the South China Sea, the service’s Pacific-area commander said Friday."
The Russian air crew certainly learned that America practices seriously to shoot them down.
A good offense is a good defense: "The Iranian security establishment is likely preoccupied managing the crises that it faces over planning an immediate retaliatory strike to avenge Nasrallah."
Oh? "The Lebanese government is ready to fully implement a UN resolution that had aimed to end Hezbollah's armed presence south of the Litani River as part of an agreement to stop war with Israel, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said." Israel shouldn't repeat their post-2006 mistake.
News from the shooting gallery: "Navy ships intercepted a Houthi barrage of missiles and drones launched from Yemen at the shipping lanes of the Red Sea, the Pentagon confirmed Friday, while also denying reports that any ships were hit in the attack." Tactically good. Strategically? I have doubts.
I bet talk of Western failure to supply Ukraine with military equipment quickly enough to allow Ukraine to win when Russia was weakest in autumn 2022 perhaps deliberately obscures our complete inability to do so. Only now is our production reviving. Better for Russia and China to think we chose this path, eh?
Yeah, our era has a worrying inter-war vibe about it. You'd think I'd be more concerned current events show that era is reaching its end. But I'm oddly confident we may escape the next logical stage. I'm not sure why.
Taiwan thinks China is building toward a force capable of invading Taiwan but has still fallen short. As I addressed in Military Review, I think we all need to reconsider what a PLA victory looks like.
Australia: "The collective failure to properly address allegations of unlawful killings arising from the Afghanistan war has delivered a great injustice upon our soldiers. ... The reckless handling of the Afghan allegations set a bad precedent that must be challenged until a new process is institutionalised." Indeed.
Does Russia have enough Chinese currency to keep trading with China? Trade with China has allowed Russia to avoid some sanctions effects. Will it be barter next?
DOD support for coping with Hurricane Helene. It seems really bad and I don't see much discussion in the news that might light a fire under butts.
NATO seeks to reform for the current era. While Europeans have lots of money to send to help Ukraine, only America has the military power to send weapons and ammunition in quantity. Or actual combat units in a war.
China: CCP power being centralized under Xi, a stalling economy, and a shrinking population. Plus shiny weapons that can't be employed as well as their new-car smell suggests and ambitions for territory and glory.
Okay: "Taking on lethal attack drones attacking Red Sea shipping and U.S. Army operations in Jordan, Iraq and Syria will be the Defense Department’s focus for Replicator 2, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin wrote in a Friday memo to Pentagon leaders." Fighter drones? Never thought of them for sea ... Hmmm.
Russian chest-beating and flinging turbulence in the Alaska ADIZ. Not just evil. A-holes, too.
Evil and a-holes. But they don't forget why they fight: "The Russian government wants to earmark 32.5% of its spending next year
for defense, a record amount and up from a reported 28.3% this year, as
Moscow seeks to prevail in the war in Ukraine." We rarely show passing familiarity with that whole victory notion.
Australia wants lighter vehicles for littoral warfare. Presumably overseas littoral ground warfare given that Abrams tanks could be used in their own coastal regions.
Once again we see a U.S. presence doesn't prevent locals from peacefully sorting out their differences: "Since the IEA took over, the situation in Afghanistan has gotten much worse. The once again stalled TAPI project is one of many victims of the upsurge in violence and anarchy throughout the country."
Russia upgraded its generally disappointing Pantsir air defense system. Much like Allied bombardment of Germany in World War II achieved, Russia seems to be pulling back battlefield air defense to protect the skies of the homeland in the face of Ukraine's bombing campaign against Russian logistics.
Microwave anti-drone weapons that can apparently be scaled down to a drone payload. As a warning, I was told our signal unit's microwave dishes could cook food if dangled in front of them.
Iran's Red Sea front is reactivated: "Yemen’s Houthi rebels launched an explosive-loaded drone that crashed into one ship Tuesday in the Red Sea and a missile that exploded against another."
The war on terror continues: "Islamic State in Somalia has approximately doubled in size over the past year, the chief of U.S. Africa Command told VOA." We're fools if we think that war is over and that the jihadis don't pray for the chance to kill us here at home.
Yikes: "Fort Eisenhower, Georgia, has been without water for days and has had much of its electricity knocked out, leading to evacuations of families and soldiers after Hurricane Helene." I trained on my first MOS there when it was Fort Gordon.
This story about anti-war protesters planning to gather outside an American base in Germany leaves out an important fact. What war are they protesting? FFS.
Russia has ordered the conscription of 133,000 men, aged 18-30, into the Russian military's autumn draft wave. Russia has two per year.
Iranian assets are the likely suspect for small attacks on American troops in Iraq and in Syria.
Canada wants submarines, joining Taiwan and Australia who have recently confirmed the need. I'll ask again, are surface warships too vulnerable in this era?
When Israel's enemies choose to kill Israelis, the idea that Israel should restrain its killing of those enemies is insane. Killing jihadis is good. Don't break out the Smart Diplomacy® to save enemies from their decisions to resort to war!
Discussing the return of very long-range air-to-air missiles to Navy fighter aircraft. I noted this figurative rise of the Phoenix in the Navy.
Per round fired, Ukraine is more effective. And the firing ratio to Russia is perhaps 1:3 now: "The Ukrainian military is gradually narrowing the gap with Russia in terms of artillery shell usage, thanks to continued support from its Western allies." We'll see how FPV drone reputation fares as artillery revives.
Russia is deploying free-floating mines in the Black Sea to drift into grain ships and into NATO waters. That would be a war crime for any country that recognizes unlawful methods of war. Russia does not. NATO may need to sweep those up.
Ukrainian air defense: "Training of additional maintenance personnel is underway but the shortage of these technicians will continue to limit the number of F-16s and Patriot systems Ukraine can use."
Congo (DRC): "The eastern regions of the country, abundant in valuable ores, continue to attract various local armed militias either seeking these resources for themselves, or to be paid not to interfere with anyone else who tries to do so. This ongoing instability hampers economic development and deters investment."
The Navy made its recruiting goal this last fiscal year. And it doesn't look like it met it by reducing the goal as the Army did.
The Pentagon wants cheap suicide drones that can be mass produced.
Did Western writers make too much of that Chinese sub that sank at its pier? All I said last week was that the PLA Navy's new-car smell is misleading. I stand by that. I don't recall anybody suggesting it was a nuclear reactor hazard. But sure--big shock--the media often doesn't understand military topics.
Oh, FFS. Britain has ceded authority to its strategically located island in the Indian Ocean--Diego Garcia, where America has long had an air base--to a weak government that I predict won't honor a 99-year lease any more than China did. And when that government bows to China, we won't make it ten years.
This story citing a Florida State Guard member is not referring to the National Guard. He's in a state defense force that Florida recently established.
I also suspect Trump could turn against Russia if Putin won't cut an acceptable deal to end its invasion of Ukraine. I just don't think the goal to "make America great again" involves letting a brutal aggressor win in Europe.
Please note that toilet paper is not much of an imported item. Tip to Instapundit.
North Korea boasts about its nuclear infrastructure. Strategypage notes North Korea's growing nuclear arsenal. But what is it? My impression is that they haven't mastered warheads for ICBMs. Do they have missiles with shorter ranges? Bombs? North Korea wants a nuclear arsenal. Do they have one?
America must fix recruiting and retention for the armed forces.
A call to replace tube artillery with rocket artillery. The man has experience with artillery. Yet I doubt he's right. But he might be. My main hope is that this is a question that can be examined without determining the answer ahead of time. We already greatly reduced our tube artillery since the Cold War.
Britain's rulers blame Britain for strained British-EU relations and are eager to bend the knee to Brussels. Well, America had to wage another war--the War of 1812--when the result of the original Revolution just didn't set in as firmly as it should have. Starmer is not the PM to do that. British voters? What next?
Ukrainian pilots need more time to switch to F-16s from their old Soviet models? When this started I read that experienced pilots had an advantage in switching planes. Either way, we ignored a faster model.
China's subliminal war ratchets up: "Chinese Coast Guard ships entered the restricted waters of Taiwan’s Kinmen islands twice on September 26. The PRC has normalized such incursions since February to erode Taiwan’s control of the waters and assert the PRC’s right to enforce its laws there."
Until Russia stops pretending China isn't the threat, Russia is our enemy: "A hacking group tied to Russian intelligence tried to worm its way into the systems of dozens of Western think tanks, journalists and former military and intelligence officials, Microsoft and U.S. authorities said Thursday."
China continues to make friends in the South China Sea: "Vietnam condemned China on Thursday, saying Chinese law enforcement personnel assaulted 10 Vietnamese fishermen, damaged their fishing gear and seized about 4 tons of fish catch near the disputed Paracel Islands in the South China Sea."
The NRO aims for persistent space imagery.
The Philippines told us to leave after we defeated the USSR. China changed that attitude: "Marines and sailors arrived in the Philippines as part of a fairly new, but annual rotation to Southeast Asia as the U.S. looks to reassure regional allies in the midst of ongoing tensions with China[.]"
Reach out farther and touch someone: "The American AIM-120D3 missile is an much upgraded AMRAAM air-to-air missile."
Good call: "South Korea views North Korea as increasingly unstable and potentially reckless." Which is why South Korea intends to develop nukes. To go along with their new missiles. Their new subs will provide the basis for a conventionally powered sub carrying nukes.
I doubt that's a silver bullet: "Beijing could wage an economic and cyber war to force a surrender from Taiwan without direct use of military power, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based research institute, said in the report."
Iran used cash payments from America for mayhem: "Iran's nuclear program has been going on for decades without delivering a usable nuclear weapon. Billions of dollars goes into this program, money that could help revive the Iranian economy." Iranians are upset. Assuming some money didn't buy nukes.
Once again let's remember that a "proportional response" under international law doesn't mean a "similar response" to the scale or result of the enemy attack. It means that the attack is proportional to achieving the lawful objective of the attack.
If Hamas leaders think the West Bank is safer, an Israeli strike undermined that: "The Israeli military said the air strike was a joint operation with its Shin Bet security service, aimed at killing Oufi and 'other significant terrorists'."
