I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
This too shall pass. Tip to Instapundit.
Rising tensions with China are fueling American interest in revising issues around the Panama Canal.
Former President Carter passed away last Sunday. His death at a ripe old age is to be mourned, of course. I am disappointed he was our president and relieved he served only one term. His post-presidency charity efforts obscured his quiet help for enemies of America. He was an awful man and president.
Rising sun: "The Japanese Cabinet on Friday approved a record [$55 billion]) defense budget for 2025 as Japan accelerates building up its strike-back capability with long-range cruise missiles and starts deploying Tomahawks to fortify itself against growing threats from China, North Korea and Russia."
That's 3.3% of GDP: "Finland’s conservative-led government has unveiled a broad plan to lift defense spending from $6.8 billion in 2025 to $11.5 billion in 2032."
Old Air Force proposals to base offensive nukes on the Moon. To be fair, having nukes 2-1/2 days from American soil rather than 20 minutes would complicate an enemy first strike.
To maintain the pace of strikes on Hamas that used accumulated pre-war intelligence on targets, Israel had to use artificial intelligence to generate new targets fast enough. You'd need AI for a high-tech phalanx.
That can't be good: "Chinese hackers that gained access to U.S. telecommunications networks in a sweeping cybersecurity breach were able to use their positioning to geolocate millions of individuals and record phone calls at will[.]" Via Instapundit.
But China believes we'll defend our allies? "[Censorship suggests] despite [Covid 19] ultimately killing more than 1.2 million Americans and over 7 million people worldwide, there was still an overriding interest in the administration to downplay the Chinese responsibility for the pandemic." Via Instapundit.
Not pining to renew the bro-mance: "North Korean leader Kim Jong Un vowed to implement the “toughest” anti-U.S. policy, state media reported Sunday, less than a month before Donald Trump takes office as U.S. president." His new friend Putin would be jealous.
China's massive military build up and aggressive psychological warfare.
Rule of law: "Law enforcement authorities in South Korea requested an arrest warrant for President Yoon Suk Yeol after being impeached two weeks ago for his martial law decree on Dec. 3 that shook the nation."
More American security assistance to Ukraine, mostly ammunition.
I'm skeptical when I read that European parties or politicians are fascists. I experienced too much of our media accusing normal Americans of that (your gentle host was called a "fascist" for wearing an Army uniform) to accept this without more proof. That same media praises the autocratic European Union.
Please define: "A delegation led by Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Minister Andrii Sybiha met with Syrian Foreign Affairs Minister Assad al Shaibani and Intelligence Chief Anas Khattab. Shaibani said that there will be a 'strategic partnership' between Ukraine and Syria during a press conference after the meeting."
The Arakan of Myanmar (Burma) can only dream of being crowned Queen of the Victim Prom by the sainted international community.
Russia is waging a war of sabotage against Finland and the Baltic States, especially Estonia (tip to Instapundit). You can call it "hybrid war" to avoid calling it war, but that's what it is. And if we insist on court levels of proof before treating it as a form of war, it could get much worse for Estonia and NATO.
Can American, Japanese, and South Korean submarines strangle China by blocking China's trade routes? My gut feeling is that we under-estimate China's ability to cope well enough to cope under wartime conditions.
The U.S. seeks AI to "empower decision-makers to better understand and engage with potential adversaries, optimizing strategies for deterrence and incentive-based actions." We were successful with pattern recognition to predict terrorist activity locations in the Iraq War. Can it really be scaled up?
Drones: "Despite all the remarkable innovations above, drones are not as destructively effective on the battlefield as artillery, missiles and landmines. However, drones are what captures the public imagination." Agreed. Useful? Absolutely. Silver bullets? Nope. Stop throwing panties.
"End the Cold War in Cuba"? By ending it, the author means rescuing the cruel communist dictatorship from its own incompetence. Ef that. Let the communists flee in disgrace and fear to Venezuela first. But what do you expect from a publication drawing on "social-democratic" tradition? Just proto-communists.
Basically, just how effed is Germany? Is it the fault of voters demanding this clusterf**k or leadership ignoring voters to implement the clusterf**k? And can Germany pull out of its suicide dive into the mountains? Or is the cockpit just too cozy--for now--to bother?
A Ukrainian sea drone apparently shot down a Russian helicopter. Could future warships be disaggregated in numerous manned and unmanned hulls? Damaged or destroyed components could be quickly replaced with new components. You might not reload them at sea--just replace it and send the empty one to port.
The retreat from quasi-empire continues: "Ivory Coast announced on Tuesday that French troops will leave the country after a decadeslong military presence, the latest African nation to downscale military ties with its former colonial power."
Well, Michigan defeated Alabama in their bowl game despite our depleted team. Broadly speaking, Michigan did to Alabama what it did to Ohio State with a defense-centric game plan that exploited early Alabama turnovers. Best 8-5 season ever!
The war on terror is not over: "A man intentionally drove a pickup truck into a crowd of revelers on Bourbon Street in New Orleans' French Quarter early on New Year's Day, killing 10 people and injuring dozens of others, officials said. The FBI said the driver was killed in a firefight with police."
The Strategypage annual wars update for 2024."Thanks to modern technology, especially ubiquitous access to cell phones
and the Internet, any mayhem anywhere on the planet easily becomes
another news item for a global audience." Still, numerous old empires try to revive their past glory.
Former imperial subjects--including Ukrainians--strenuously disagree: "While rebuilding the empire is popular inside Russia it has terrified and united the rest of Europe and led to a growing militarization effort." And Russians are suffering to restore bits of the empire in Ukraine.
Hmm: "For historical analogy, think of Russia as the equivalent to World War II Japan while China is the wealthier and more powerful Nazi Germany." I see Russia as World War II Italy because of its nostalgic obsession with imperial glory that threatens to be a drain on Chinese resources to sustain.
China's shrinking and aging population affects the PLA: "There's also a shortage of skilled people in the armed forces. Plenty of low skilled or inept volunteers, but not the ones that are most needed, and in demand." Can China effectively use its new, shiny weapons? That's long been my question.
Is this old-school mass assaults or Russia's version of repeated small-scale waves? "North Korean troops deployed to Russia’s western border with Ukraine are conducting 'human wave tactics' on the battlefield, leading to more than 1,000 casualties within their ranks last week, a White House spokesman said[.]"
When I first heard the NOLA police chief describe the 1/1 terror attack, she seemed ... off. Seemingly perplexed that the killer would ignore clearly evident prohibitions about entering certain areas. Per Instapundit, she clearly has no business wearing a police uniform. The actual police responded bravely.
Being invaded--and some needed purges--has made Ukraine's counter-spies more effective.
Strategerski: Effing with NATO just provokes its member states to spend more to resist Russia, as Norway's experience shows. Russia invited this problem.
Link between Las Vegas and New Orleans attacks. And of course the ISIL link. That link may make it difficult to justify withdrawing American troops from eastern Syria. Tip to Instapundit.
China has illegally exerted control since 2012: "Chinese air and naval forces staged 'combat readiness patrols' around Scarborough Shoal last Sunday, marking Beijing’s final major show of strength against Manila over the disputed South China Sea maritime feature in 2024."
I hope these Navy plans to build up "joint all-domain operations" capabilities in INDOPACOM bring real capabilities soon rather than spectacular PowerPoint presentations.
The odd situation of Ukraine subsidizing Russia's war on Ukraine by allowing natural gas to flow across Ukraine to European customers has ended with the expiration of the contract period. With this advance notice, Europe should be prepared to cope.
What could possibly go wrong? "[The] South-North Water Transfer Project" ... "aims to redistribute billions of cubic meters of water annually across one of the world's largest countries, spanning 2,700 miles." I'll go out on a limb and predict that this will "unexpectedly" create huge problems.
So-called bomb planters thought to be working with the New Orleans terrorist were curious bystanders. That makes more sense given than none of the bombs were detonated. Clearly the terrorist expected to survive longer to detonate them. Thank you police officers who rushed to the sound of the attack.
I'm assuming Russia can still build effective subs given their strategic importance: "The Russian Navy accepted the fifth in a class of advanced nuclear attack submarines that is set to be based near Norway, Moscow announced last week." They are needed to protect a SSBN bastion.
I won't joke about France. Those desertions highlight that Ukraine should have sent new soldiers to experienced brigades where they are a minority able to learn from veterans. Veteran cadres should have staffed the core of new brigades. The narrow problem of this brigade is a failure of its leadership.
Wait. What? Is ProPublica suggesting American shipyards hire illegal immigrants? Unless that is true, Trump's policy to stop illegal immigration will have no effect on Navy expansion. I never trust ProPublica and it is disturbing that Defense News uses them in their Early Bird Brief.
FPV drones had the field to themselves for a while: "An Estonian tech startup has developed a miniature missile designed to counter low-flying drones that it plans to test in Ukraine this month, as Russian drone attacks continue to cause havoc across the war-torn country." That is changing.
A bold raid to destroy an Iranian underground missile-production facility in Syria: "The raid, codenamed Operation Many Ways, was deemed an outstanding success, with the facility destroyed and none of the 120 Israeli special forces troops involved being injured."
VDH likens Germany's de-industrialization from green policies to the punitive Morgenthau Plan that was considered but never implemented by the Allies to make sure Germany was never a threat again. I made that comparison several times in 2024 data dumps. FFS, where is the clue bat?!
No! Way! "US officials were briefed on Iran's oil smuggling scheme—and mostly ignored the intel" which allowed Iran to earn billions to sponsor terrorists. But of course they did. Tip to Instapundit.
America's challenges in 2025: "The big problems are so pervasive, complex and entwined, they are at best mitigated, navigated or reduced." This fits well with my observation that we need to pace ourselves using military power when we go to war.
Can Israel exploit its victories to take persistent enemy pawns off the board for quite some time? We must let Palestinians face defeat without a foreign safety net. Decades of that net is false compassion. Defeat that forces them to accept a deal that abandons their desire to kill all the Jews is real compassion.
What the heck is going on in South Korea? Is this resisting rule of law or upholding it?
But the EU is not "Europe": "The European reality is one of a sprawling bureaucracy held together by a series of tenuous compromises, lurching from one crisis to another. Despite the grand rhetoric, it seems Europe’s main goal has become to avoid falling apart long enough to issue another press release." Just die.
Ukraine highlights the next generation of FPV drones. It's a deja vu feeling, no?
Is the U.S. building a small base at Kobani in northeast Syria to shield the Kurds from the Turks? And is it for our troops, coalition forces, or both? Based on the way the DOD spokeswoman answered questions, I suspect we are building a base for coalition forces.
Hard target: "The Australian Defence Force (ADF) has received the final nine F-35A
Lightning II aircraft, rounding out the planned fleet of 72." Australia is definitely lunge worthy.
They led an army in Europe in World War II: "Canada’s Army suffers from a severe recruitment and
retention shortfall, outdated equipment, and inadequate training—crises
that erode its ability to defend the nation and support NATO." I don't expect Canada to field two corps. But please don't stink on ice.
The A-10 is old: "The Air Force sent at least 39 retired A-10 Thunderbolt IIs to the boneyard in 2024, a significant increase as the service moves toward removing the aircraft from its inventory even as it recently used the planes in training exercises and in combat overseas." But it's really a matter of trust.
Preparing F-22 crews for shooting down Iranian long-range Iranian drone-style cruise missiles.
Bomb the food supply? "Strategic bombing is still difficult to carry out effectively, especially due to the lack of accurate [bomb damage assessment]. That’s why finding key targets that are few in number and difficult to repair, like power plants and Ammonium production facilities, is so important."
The end of history is over: "The USN/U.S. Navy is the most powerful in the world and has been that way for eighty years. That primacy is now threatened by the American inability to maintain an adequate number of supply and support ships for the fleet at sea." That's a problem.
Near the end of this DOD news conference, a reporter asked if the military is doing enough to track extremism in the military given the two New Year's Day bombings by veterans. How fun! Now do Islam, which even Moslem leaders understand has an extremism problem.
Risking war during a presidential transition is difficult to justify, as I've noted. Biden certainly has the authority to strike Iran's nuclear facilities before exiting. The transition shouldn't be safe zone. But it would have to be done with the full approval of and coordination with Trump who is coming in.
In my view Slovakia deliberately created this vulnerability by refusing to seek alternatives as a favor to Putin: "Slovakia could substantially cut its support for Ukrainian refugees in response to Kyiv's recent decision to shut off a Russian pipeline supplying natural gas to central Europe."
Sh*t got real: "Poland’s Interior Ministry is drawing up rules and regulations for evacuating civilians and national culture treasures in the event of a natural disaster or military threat." Clearly hateful "Russophobia" unrelated to history or current events.
Huh: "Russia-appointed officials in Moscow-occupied Crimea announced a regional emergency on Saturday, as oil was detected on the shores of Sevastopol, the peninsula’s largest city." Does oil protect Russia from sea drones? Can Ukraine ignite it? Can fire be focused on military target or is it a war crime?
Eye in the sky: "China has been spotted testing a new early warning and control aircraft, reportedly the KJ-3000, based on the Y-20 platform."
A Ukrainian pilot's view of the air-to-ground war.
The drone went rogue over Ukraine so the Russians shot it down and bounced the rubble with a missile strike: "In late 2024 Russia sent one of their new Su-57 stealth fighters into Ukraine accompanied by an S-70 Okhotnik-B stealth drone." Ukraine still collected the debris.
Teetering: "Three years after invading Ukraine, the Russian defense budget has turned into a monster devastating the economy." Corruption was accelerated by war rather than reducing corruption. Note Strategypage adds information to older posts. So saying Russia is on the defensive is clearly old prose.
I'm calling BS: "The European Union will closely watch the political process developing in Syria and stand by the country if it moves toward a peaceful and open future but it will not back Syria's Islamization, Germany's foreign minister said on Friday." If the jihadis wear suits on camera, the EU will sign deals.
Just lie back and think of virtue signaling. What happens when you import invaders. National security starts at your border.
