Aerial drones (unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs) have an impressive record in the Armenia-Azerbaijan war of a couple years ago and in Ukraine on a much larger scale right now. Don't get overly worked up over a weapon exploiting the current counter-measures gap. That gap will be closed leaving drones as one more useful weapon in combined arms arsenals.
Ukrainian drones are wreaking havoc on Russia's army:
Many Ukrainian innovations involve the use of locally developed and built UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles). Before the war there was a “UAV tinkering and development” movement that became a military asset once Russia invaded. What made Ukrainian UAVs particularly effective is that there was no standardization as was the case in Russia and many other nations that are major military powers. This meant Russia had a difficult time detecting, let alone intercepting, the constantly growing multiple types of increasingly effective Ukrainian UAVs.
Early in the war I think Ukraine's success was largely due to their artillery and mobile anti-tank teams. And Russia's operational mistake of thinking they were conducting a parade and not an invasion.
I think the small, cheap drones are effective now for two reasons: the static nature of the war that allows drone operators behind the lines to search at their leisure for Russian units and targets; and the temporary advantage those drones have until cheaper counter-measures are developed (which for Ukraine is amplified by their non-standardized arsenal).
Germany early in World War II had a massive initial advantage using tanks. The advantages of tanks declined--but tanks were still vital--as Allied equipment, tactics, and experience were developed to rival German tactical developments.
Large-scale drone use by Ukraine is taking advantage of the novelty and lag time in developing counter-measures. So like sea drones, temper your enthusiasm.
And lest you think I am in denial about the small drone threat, I wrote about one kind of counter-measure five years ago in Army magazine for defending against that threat.
Drones in all the domains will eventually just be one more weapon in a combined arms effort.
Indeed, the drones might fight low-level air campaigns in the "brown skies" just above forward combat units that look like "blue sky" Air Force campaigns with specialty drones for ground attack, recon, electronic warfare, intercepting enemy drones or protecting friendly drones, and maybe aerial refueling. You might even have recovery drones to pick up downed UAVs.
UPDATE: Timely news:
NATO is expected to adopt its first-ever counter unmanned aerial system doctrine, which will in part advise member-states on layered approaches to defend against UAS and the common training of operators.
Although it isn't just about tanks, I assume.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
