The Hamas slaughter and kidnapping raid on Israel has shockingly reminded us that too many Americans think an ally's flaws make them unworthy of support, justifying whatever evil that ally's enemy inflicts.
Even as Hamas stormed into Israel in a clear murder and kidnapping raid, there are Americans willing to claim that Hamas is the good guy in this horror. Palestinians play the victim with Israel the sole villain. Don't buy that. Israel isn't pure. But they are far better than their barbaric enemy. Israelis are the good guys in this fight to the death that Hamas chose.
Until World War II the territory of Gaza, Israel, and the West Bank was under the control of an imperial power. First the Ottoman Empire and then the British after World War I. After World War II when Israel was created, Arab states invaded. And at the end of it Israel controlled land that had been allocated to local Arabs; Egypt controlled Gaza; and Jordan controlled the West Bank.
In 1967 Israel responded to threats of invasion by taking Gaza (and the Sinai) and the West Bank to make it easier to absorb future Arab attacks. In the prior 19 years Egypt and Jordan did nothing to provide Palestinian residents a homeland. Indeed, in 1970 Jordan drove Palestinians deemed a threat to the Jordanian state out of the country.
After the 1973 war, before the end of the decade Israel made peace with Egypt and then returned the Sinai peninsula. An American-led non-U.N. monitoring force mans a buffer zone to this day.
In 2000, Palestinians rejected a peace deal that would have given them Gaza, the West Bank, and symbolic territory in Jerusalem. Israel was on board the American-sponsored plan (under Clinton, most visibly at the Camp David summit). The Palestinians rejected that deal.
Since then, Israel has increased territorial control in the West Bank through settlements, but otherwise the area is loosely controlled by Fatah, a rival of Hamas that is more interesting in enriching its leadership.
In 2005, tired of fighting locals, Israel pulled out of Gaza. After, voters chose Hamas to rule them. And then Hamas decided that Gazans had voted enough.
And Hamas and other Gaza Palestinian groups have repeatedly attacked Israel, increasingly counting on rockets.
Clearly, Palestinians have decided that killing Jews and annihilating Israel is more important than getting a state short of all of Israel included in it. Death and destruction is embraced and building a new and prosperous state is rejected. Yes, Hamas has some level of popular support. But the bright side is that some people do want peace. And some supporters surely shrink from this kind of slaughter.*
Why Democrats love the mullah-run Iran is beyond my powers of comprehension. Oh yeah.
And in the latest horrific attack, Hamas achieved the greatest one-day killing of Jews since Hitler. So bravo, guys. God is greatest, eh? What this should show to all of us is that Hamas is one more Islamist terror actor in the Islamic Civil War that we should all want to crush. You think they wouldn't kill Americans or other Westerners if they run out of Israelis?
Despite the shock that has created resolve to end this threat, I think the Israelis have to be aware of the clock. Israel will fight under the rules of war. Gazan civilians will nonetheless die in large numbers because that's what happens even in a lawfully conducted war conducted in dense urban terrain. And because Hamas and its ilk will use human shields--even their own, some of whom will be armed or unarmed eager volunteers--to survive a little longer under Israel's assault and make Israel look bad.
But time is Israel's enemy. Whether this means Israel has weeks or months to decisively cripple Hamas with a March Through Gaza, I do not know. It is unfair that Iraq had years to clear ISIL from Iraq in bloody fighting and plow through Mosul, turning the city into rubble, without serious human rights complaints. But that's the way it is.
I think that although Saudi Arabia understands that Iran is the common enemy of the Saudis and Israelis--Iran sponsored drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities and is not shy about wanting to control Mecca and Medina--the Saudis have to pay attention to popular opinion on this issue. Decades of eliminationist propaganda has had a deep effect. So Israel has to have a sense of urgency so as not to strain the Saudi ability to be patient and quiet. Egypt and Jordan face similar pressures from below.
Israel understands the clock issue simply from the heavy reliance on reservists pulled out of the civilian economy to fight a major war. Diplomacy adds to the urgency to win as soon as possible. Although the shock of this slaughter means Israel will likely push the clock in order to be thorough, if needed.
Hell, notwithstanding Biden's pledge of full support, those holding him upright probably have different views that seek to save Hamas from the consequences of barbarism that will float to the top if the war lasts too long.
The biggest immediate questions are whether West Bank Palestinians will join Hamas and whether Hezbollah will join in. The West Bank has people sympathetic to Hamas but leadership that agrees with Hamas but doesn't want to be on the Hamas leash. Hezbollah in southern Lebanon has recently come out of a bloody expedition to save Assad in the Syria multi-war. Will Hezbollah want to risk Israel going all the way to Baalbek in this actual war? I don't know the answers to either question. Nor do I know if Israel can conduct a simultaneous larger ground war to include southern Lebanon, which Hezbollah controls and where it has tens of thousands of rockets and missiles stored. Those rockets compel invasion unless Israel has an effective firepower alternative.
I hope America and Europeans will be able to pressure the already battered Hezbollah to stay out of the fight and let Israel focus on this one narrow fight in Gaza.
And even when the war is won and Gaza is rubble, Israel will need to patrol the Gaza sea border and line the land border with ditches, obstacles, minefields, and robotic and remotely controlled machine guns and grenade launchers covering a no-man's land free-fire zone where any entry is assumed to be hostile. With fortifications ready to be manned by troops and reserves on hand to counter-attack. Israelis will thoroughly supervise material going into Gaza to prevent it from being diverted to preparing for another war. Gazans will need to prove over time that all that isn't necessary because they've accepted their primary goal in life isn't to kill one more Jew on the path to all of them.
People are wondering what we should call this latest war. As you can see from my initial post on the war, it was obvious to me that this would be a war and not just a brief conflict of terror and retaliation. Israel vows that this is an actual war to end the Hamas threat.
I say call this fight the Last Hamas
War. And mean it. No eventual peace deal between Palestinians and
Israelis is possible while Hamas and its allies hold the Palestinian
people in thrall.
*I don't go along with the idea that Palestinian identity is "artificial." That it was created by Arab states defeated in conventional war in order to wage war on Israel by other means, so can be ignored. That question is now irrelevant. That identity exists. I reject Palestinians posing as Queen of the Victim Prom, around which the entire world must revolve. But I believe a defeated Palestinian people abandoned by former Arab allies eager to move on with their lives will be forced to make peace and get on with their lives, too. Palestinian terror apologists drone on about the "root cause." That root cause is the bloody murderers of Hamas leading the cooperative Palestinians through the gates of Hell.
UPDATE: Just some of the murder and violence spree. Tip to Instapundit.
UPDATE: Did Hamas really essentially expend its manpower in this suicide attack? I did hear that the Israelis isolated some of the attackers inside Israel, and I assume have killed or captured them. But I assumed most terrorists ran back to Gaza. Am I wrong? Maybe there aren't many trained men to resist an Israeli ground push? That is weird. And perhaps Arab states are not so much sympathetic to Palestinians but, as Strategypage writes, worried Iran could achieve a similar surprise against them.
UPDATE: I'm not hearing much about continued Hamas (and allied) rocket attacks now. Did Hamas expend most of them in the initial pulse? Has Israel knocked out the remaining launch and storage sites? Or am I not just seeing the stories?
UPDATE: In regard to those who want Israel to kill every Palestinian in the path of their invasion, I understand the anger and frustration. It is easy to see the horror Hamas inflicted on innocents and just say "Kill them all and let Allah sort them out."
But I will repeat my objection to a similar call for America to "take the gloves off" in Iraq.
Free democracies can't be brutal enough to make that strategy
"effective"--which is why it is termed a "final solution." Perhaps most
importantly, I wanted our soldiers to come home as heroes and not
murderers. And they did. After getting our Sunni Arab tribal enemies to change sides in the Awakening to help us kill jihadis, and creating an Iraqi ally that kills jihadis to this day. American brutality would not have achieved that.
I say the same for the Israelis. Even as I am willing to give them the time to destroy their jihadi enemies in Gaza.
My caution does not mean Israel should not be decisive in its military response. Remember, the rules of war don't make it illegal to conduct military operations that kill civilians. And speed saves lives if it ends a war faster. Finally, don't buy the "proportionality" nonsense that holds Israel must lower its military activities to match what Hamas is capable of. Fighting with a fraction of your power is not a law of war.
Israel can push through Gaza killing its enemies, and human shields don't require Israel to refrain from using firepower to achieve military objectives. Soldiers don't need to be murderous barbarians to fight with all their power and win. Make Gaza howl.
UPDATE: Did Hamas go too far for Arab states to stomach? We'll see if that attitude lasts until Israel finishes the destruction of Hamas. Tip to Instapundit.
UPDATE: We must recognize that mullah-run Iran is our enemy and treat it--and its allies and proxies--accordingly. Which will be difficult for the strangely mullah-loving Democrats who collude with Iran to strengthen the mullahs to carry out. But making that change is key to cutting the Gordian Knot that ties so many of our problems together in Tehran (and note I included Gaza in that 2009 post).
UPDATE: So far, America is supporting Israel.
UPDATE: This satire is relevant. Tip to Instapundit.
UPDATE: This is actually vague enough to include Saudi patience for whatever Israel needs to do to destroy Hamas: "Bin Salman said that his country will continue 'to stand by the Palestinian people to achieve their legitimate rights to a decent life, achieve their hopes and aspirations, and achieve just and lasting peace,' the official Saudi Press Agency reported." Don't be quick to assume Hamas has achieved a strategic objective of splitting Saudi Arabia from Israel. Delay, probably. But not an end.
UPDATE: Yeah, it is mind boggling that the border was so poorly defended and that Israeli troops were so slow to react. This is shocking: "Israel has reported that 85 soldiers, 37 police officers and 5 ISA (Shin Bet – Israel Security Agency) members have been killed."
UPDATE: Retired U.S. Air Force colonel: "What Hamas did, what their leadership did, was apparently they moved off of the normal modern communications links that we take for granted every day, and went back to what you did in the 19th century: face-to-face meetings, they went and used couriers instead of going in and using the telephone or the cell phone." That's basically how Hitler achieved surprise in his Battle of the Bulge offensive in 1944. If information on German plans didn't come from the compromised Enigma code machines, we didn't think it was real. I'm rather shocked the Israelis were so one-dimensional. If true, of course. Tip to Instapundit.
UPDATE: If Hezbollah joins Hamas at war, Israel has to advance into Lebanon to occupy rocket launch sites because air defenses can't handle the volume Hezbollah could fling at Israel.
But could Israel manage a deep drive to crush Hezbollah while it does the same to Hamas? Don't know. But I also don't know if Hezbollah is recovered from its bloodletting in Syria fighting and dying in large numbers to defend Assad for it to think joining the war is a good idea.
UPDATE: Israel's drive into Gaza's urban terrain, while not a megacity, will no doubt illustrate why I prefer to avoid sending the Army into cities (in Army magazine).
UPDATE: If Israel's northern front expands to Syrian territory, that's because Iran has been preparing the area for this role.
UPDATE: There was a last minute warning that was not received or ignored?
Shortly before attackers from Gaza poured into Israel at dawn on Saturday, Israeli intelligence detected a surge in activity on some of the Gazan militant networks it monitors. Realizing something unusual was happening, they sent an alert to the Israeli soldiers guarding the Gazan border, according to two senior Israeli security officials.
Hmmm. Was it vague and ass-covering? Was it the last in a series of false alarms? Or was it specific as in "grab ammo and body armor, and get your ass on the line now!"? The details matter.
Also, Hamas knocked out cell phone towers and remotely controlled machine guns. Israeli troops didn't have a timely back-up for those systems, didn't monitor them sufficiently, or didn't have time--or perhaps the numbers--to react. In many ways, this sounds like a high-tech version of the Bar Lev line that was meant to protect soldiers from harassing fire and not serve as a fortified line to stop an offensive that Egypt launched in October 1973.
The Gaza border line was clearly designed to stop terrorist infiltrators and prevent Hamas from shooting or kidnapping individual soldiers. But Israelis clearly thought of it as a defensive line. They might not have held a massive rave so close to Gaza if they knew how thin that shield was.
Also, Israeli leadership for commanding troops on the border were concentrated and taken out in the initial attack, wrecking the ability to organize a response quickly--or even inform superiors of the scale of the attack.
But a major failure took place months earlier when Israeli intelligence concluded that Hamas was staying out of clashes that involved smaller jihadi groups because Hamas knew it was futile to fight Israel and wanted de-escalation. When in reality the Israelis should have smelled a grenade.
UPDATE: Well, Palestinians are still firing rockets into Israel from Gaza. But it doesn't seem to be more than a trickle at this point.
UPDATE: Again, this Hamas terror offensive seems either suicidal or designed to draw Israeli troops into urban ambushes. But another possibility is that Hamas had no idea its attack would kill so many civilians. Hamas, too, might have over-estimated the prowess of Israel's military in that moment of time. Hamas leaders might be scared witless right now--as are their Iranian masters.
UPDATE: Good article on WTAF Hamas was thinking. I suggest they might have "succeeded" beyond their wildest imagination and their pucker factor has shot up beyond design parameters.
UPDATE: On Wednesday:
Vast numbers of troops have already assembled in southern Israel. Along with huge numbers of tanks and other armoured vehicles.
Less clear is when the order will be given, or what the Israeli government’s ultimate objectives are.
Killing every Hamas and jihadi member is the obvious mission. How is the big question.
UPDATE: Saving the Israeli hostages is a dilemma. But failing to hammer Hamas out of worry for the hostages risks far more death and destruction in the future. Israel must destroy Hamas. So Israel has to risk men to find and save the hostages. But success may rely on a carrot and stick. That is, if those with immediate control of the hostages fear death now that it is thundering toward them, a carrot of money and evacuation to live a monitored life in a friendly Arab country might be only way to rescue some of the hostages. Can Israel find those who hold their people and communicate with them to pull this off?
UPDATE: Israel has to think about additional fronts in Lebanon, Syria, and the West Bank. I have no idea if any will blow up. Hezbollah in Lebanon is bloodied from defending Assad. Assad needs Russia and doesn't much like being Iran's tool. And Fatah in the West Bank fears Hamas. But there is pressure to open those fronts. And I am now hearing that Hamas and its allies keep lobbing rockets into Israel. So one more reason the clock is ticking for Israel.
UPDATE: I still wonder if Hamas possibly imagined it could be so successful in killing Jews. Our analysis is basically assuming Hamas (and possibly Iran behind them) achieved exactly what they set out to do.
If Hamas assumed the outcome would be a more spectacular "normal" terror attack that Israel would blunt based on their reputation for effectiveness, what would we be speculating about the objective? Certainly not the region-changing de-railing of the Israeli-Saudi alliance.
We'd probably lean more to the idea that Jew-hating terrorists like to kill Jews.
UPDATE: Western support for Israel will erode even faster than it has for Ukraine. As Israel counter-attacks, they will appear powerful rather than the victim.
Israel will tear up Hamas' infrastructure in their campaign. But killing the leadership and soldiers may require a post-advance quiet campaign of finding the tunnels and killing the Hamas personnel hiding inside of them waiting for opportunities to strike Israeli soldiers until Israel must retreat.
While an ugly aspect of this new war, Israel can probably leverage its control of supplies to the civilians to compel human intelligence tips as to where the entries are. But Hamas made this ugly. Israel needs to make this the last Hamas War.
I have no idea how the hostages can be rescued in these circumstances. Nobody in power in Israel or America can admit that. But that is the reality. Unless hostage rescue specialists are way better than I expect they can be for this mission impossible.
Tick tock on the clock.
UPDATE: Israeli potential options. I'd go with modified Germany 1945 option with a temporary relocation to Sinai until Israel can uproot all the terror infrastructure and repair/complete the minimal civilian infrastructure to allow the re-entry of civilians who wish to return-rather than to a third country in the Islamic world--and who are screened to be allowed to return. I believe that was basically my initial reaction.
I really can't see the expulsion options taking place. And I trust Israel will use military power as needed for its military objectives and not to just kill. I don't like reading people essentially calling for that. Whatever guilt Gazan Palestinians share for cheering on Hamas terror, there are little kids who are innocent there. No less innocent than Israeli kids slaughtered by Hamas terrorists.
Yes, innocent kids will die in the Israeli offensive. Just as innocent French, Belgian, and Dutch kids died from the Allied offensive to liberate them in World War II. But you shouldn't celebrate that or make it worse than you need to achieve military objectives. That's what Hamas does. Including using their own children as human shields. Ultimately, the rules of war don't require Israelis to care more about Palestinian children than Palestinians care. God help them.
Tip to Instapundit.
UPDATE: Interesting:
The Marine Corps’ expeditionary unit capable of special operations has departed early from a scheduled exercise with Kuwait "as a result of a emerging events," days after war broke out in the Levant following a deadly attack on Israel by a Palestinian militant group.
It could go to the Mediterranean Sea. But it could stay in the Red Sea to make final overland movements if intended for hostage rescue in Gaza. Although I suspect we'll leave that up to Israel.
I suspect they are just going mobile afloat in case an embassy in the region gets an Iranian embassy treatment.
UPDATE: ISW has converted its Iran update to an update for this war. This is the latest.
UPDATE: On Friday, it looks like Israel is planning to go right to left, after warning civilians to get out of the way in the northeast. Amazingly, the UN and WHO criticized the move. Israel is damned if it doesn't get civilians out of the way and damned if they try to do that. It's almost as if Israel is expected to just sit still and die.
We'll see if the civilian push ends up sending them into Egyptian Sinai. Or if Israel gains control of the northeast (basically Gaza City) and then brings civilians back under their control in the northeast in order to clear the southwest next.
Amazingly, Gaza terrorists continue to throw rockets at Israel. Even in tiny Gaza it doesn't seem possible to stop the attacks with firepower. Troops need to control the potential launch sites. That will be even more necessary if Hezbollah attacks Israel with its far larger and higher quality rocket and missile arsenal.
Hamas finally achieved what I warned they were begging to get in 2021. I shall repeat that the Palestinians are "most stupid and self-destructive people in the world[.]"
UPDATE: While there are worries that Israeli troops could be entering a trap that the Hamas slaughter a week ago (the death toll is rising and seems to be close to 1500--half our 9/11 toll in a much smaller country) was designed to provoke, I suspect Hamas succeeded beyond a level of response that would allow that kind of ambush of a precise incursion.
The only way this pending level of Israeli response could be an ambush is if Iran buried a nuke in Gaza City to bypass Israeli missile defenses, counting on an Israeli brigade to park itself within its blast radius. I'd say that's the output of an active imagination--and it probably is--but given the surprises we've had already I don't know it is absolutely safe to rule it out. And it would require Iran to already have nukes to deter an Israeli nuclear counter-strike. Maybe I'm not worried enough.
Again. I assume nothing. But I'd be less worried if I knew our intelligence agencies had looked into what is really a worst-case scenario.
As an aside, the British are moving forces including Royal Marines to the region. The speculation is hostage rescue but I suspect it is to prevent another Benghazi 2012 situation.
UPDATE: Airlines are wary of flights to Israel. Good grief, have people already forgotten how Russia shot down a Dutch airliner flying over the Donbas? This isn't being skittish. Lord knows what reaction Hamas planned for.
UPDATE: I hate the term "the military wing of Hamas" as if it is separate from Hamas and somehow beyond its control. "Oh that darned military wing! Making the political wing look bad!" Why don't journalists speak of the "military wing of Israel" to excuse anything Israel does?
UPDATE: When I wrote earlier that fighting without "taking the gloves off" allows soldiers to come home with heads held high, I was perhaps unclear on the cause-and-effect. It isn't just preventing the burden of killing civilians. Killing soldiers is a burden, too. But fighting under the rules of war that tell soldiers that killing enemies who are fighting is acceptable--and necessary--that counts for a lot. Killing soldiers who are surrendering is bad. But killing civilians stains the soul even more. That purpose is as important as protecting civilians (to the limit you can do that in war), in my opinion. And God help us if we adopt the rules of Hamas that slaughtering civilians is what lets you come home with heads held high.
UPDATE: Israel is not conducting "collective punishment" of Gaza for slaughtering 1400 people and kidnapping a hundred who are likely doomed to be murdered. "Collective punishment" would be killing an entire village because an occupying soldier being shot be someone in the village. Otherwise, the Allied bombing and eventual invasion into Germany would also be "collective punishment." As for Israel cutting electricity and water? Well, wartime blockades are not "collective punishment", either. It is astounding that Israel is expected to be the logistics support for their enemy. And note, too, that Egypt is happy to maintain a blockade of Gaza.
UPDATE: When I hear people defending the Hamas terrorists on TV it takes all my will not to say, "F**k it, kill them all and let Allah sort them out." But unlike those monsters on TV, I have a conscience. So I stifle that reaction. I hope Israel kills off every Hamas member that can be tracked down. Or executes them after a trial. Imprisoning them just encourages future terrorist hostage takers who will demand a thousand terrorists for every Jew they capture.
UPDATE: I heard that Biden asked Israel to delay its ground offensive to help get Gazans out of the way. The obvious reason is to hinder Israel to please the administration's progressive base (and staff). But it is possible Israel isn't quite ready and a Biden request to delay gives Israel an excuse and provides America with some breathing room with Arab allies. Just spitballing, here.
UPDATE: Hmmm. With Israel warning Gaza residents in the northeast--basically Gaza City--to evacuate to the southwest before Israel's army enters, could Israel be planning to occupy a depopulated northeastern Gaza? That would be a buffer to protect Israeli population centers that can be bombarded from the Gaza City region. And then Israel can let Hamas deal with a more densely populated rump Gaza? That would also give Israel plenty of time to unearth evidence of what Hamas and its allies, including Iran, have done there.
UPDATE: Hmmm. Controlling an empty northeast Gaza has a couple long term benefits for Israel. My initial follow-up thought was that Hamas would be pretty damned busy for a long time trying to cope with an influx of over a million people and all the tensions that would unleash.
Then I thought that Israel could have an option to create a new Gaza--New Palestine--that can be created by Israel, built with Saudi and other Gulf Arab money, and inhabited by Palestinians from rump Gaza in the southwest, the West Bank, Lebanon, and the rest of the Arab world. These Palestinians would be screened by the Israelis (and Arab partners who have no love for pro-Iran Hamas and who sign on to the Abraham Accords) to keep out terrorists or those with known terrorist sympathies. And numbers could be kept down until the economy allows for more immigrants.
The very existence of New Palestine might free Arab states to make peace with Israel, by pointing to a new hope for progress, the core of a Palestinian state, and real peace.
I'd like to think that something good can come from all the dead Israelis on October 7th and the costly but very necessary war that Israel is compelled to wage to stop that cycle of hate in defense of its own people.
Maybe Israel has to build a worthy partner that wants land for real peace with Israel--not all the land and all the Jews dead, as Hamas and too many Palestinians want.
UPDATE: Background information and this important summary of Hamas war methods:
The Hamas attack on Israel used tactics that made atrocities into a powerful weapon that made it more difficult to identify Hamas fighters unless they were carrying a weapon. Hamas also hides among civilians and likes to use civilians as human shields when attacking Israeli. If the Israelis shoot back anyway, Hamas considers the dead civilians as involuntary martyrs for the cause. For Hamas there is no bad publicity. While Israelis and Western nations deplore the ruthless tactics Hamas uses, they have a difficult time coping with Hamas unless they adopt some the atrocious Hamas methods. This aids Hamas as well because Hamas did not encourage or sometimes did not allow civilians to leave Gaza city as the Israeli attack force is preparing to attack the city. The civilians have nowhere to go because Egypt has closed its borders to Palestinians.
In the best of circumstances, an Israeli offensive into Gaza would involve a lot of unintentional civilian deaths. But we're far from the best given that Hamas and its supporters are drunk on blood lust.
UPDATE: I have no doubt Hamas planned to slaughter innocents on October 7th. What I wonder is whether Hamas expected to be so successful given the reputation of Israeli security services. Answering my question may shed light on what Hamas hoped to achieve. Which could range from "that's what Jew-hating monsters do" to realigning the strategic situation by breaking progress in Israeli-Arab diplomatic relations. Right now we base the answer on what Hamas actually achieved. I don't think that's the right way to figure out intent. Tip to Instapundit.
It is sad that when it comes to Israel, the Je Suis Charlie moment is shorter than even in France. Westerners of a certain ilk save their real anger for the backlash rather than the original lash.
UPDATE: Israel turned on the water in southwestern Gaza. I remain unclear about what percentage of drinking water comes from Israel.
UPDATE: The head of the Anglican church said the Hamas terror attacks were evil and barbaric: "But the civilians of Gaza are not responsible for the crimes of Hamas." True enough to an unknown degree. But the civilians of Gaza are going to have to pay part of the price for the crimes of Hamas. Israel is not obligated to care more about the lives of Gazans than Hamas cares.
UPDATE: I don't know how to define the claim that a "significant portion" of Palestinians don't support the terrorists who govern them, per Biden, meaning Israel must have a light touch in its
invasion. But in practice the percentage doesn't matter for the conduct of the
Israeli offensive. In my opinion, having troops follow the rules of war
is really meant to help soldiers deal with the horrors of war by
assuring them that it is possible to carry out that inherently ugly
business with honor. The Allies didn't defeat the Axis by prioritizing not killing even friendly civilians over defeating their war machines. That is false compassion.
And by rules of war I don't mean the imaginary rules of "proportional" limited use of weaponry to match the weaker enemy's capabilities or to compare casualties as if the purpose of war is equitable body counts. Nor do I mean imaginary rules that fail to distinguish between illegal targeting of civilians and the legal killing of civilians caught in the middle of lawful military operations. Related to this is the actual rule of war that puts the responsibility of dead civilians--as a general proposition--not on those who fire a weapon at combatants but on those who use civilians as human shields (it is also possible both could be guilty in a particular attack).
Our media doesn't seem to understand this nuance at all. I understand that Gazans want to live. Of course they do. I want them to live, too. But they need to let their own Hamas leaders know that--not expect Israel to shrug off terror attacks by Hamas on Israelis who want to live.
UPDATE: The coverage of the horrific but brief mass slaughter, rape, and kidnapping of Israelis has rapidly faded in favor of sympathetic coverage of Palestinian suffering. Thus the pressure for Israel to simply shrug off the attack builds, "Oh that militant wing of Hamas. Bad boys. Completely separate from Hamas and the people of Gaza, of course. But whatareyagonnado, eh?" I say destroy Hamas now. Talk about a Palestinian state later when the Israelis have a partner for peace talks and not a partner for ceasefires during which Hamas reloads.
UPDATE: ISW's October 15th update.
UPDATE: Where the Hell was he on October 6th??!! "'We are on the verge of the abyss in the Middle East,' United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned in a statement Sunday."
Hamas pushed the Middle East into an abyss on the 7th. Israel may help the region climb out if it destroys Hamas and makes Palestinians decide to reject that kind of leadership going forward.
NOTE: ISW is offering some war insights in its coverage of Iran.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
