Sunday, October 29, 2023

Weekend Data Dump

China and Russia are a problem. Excuse me? "The United States prevailed in the Cold War thanks to a consistent strategy pursued by both political parties through nine successive presidencies. It needs a similar bipartisan approach today. Therein lies the rub." I am sure Gates has a better memory than I have of the era. Yet I remember the 1970s and 1980s as having very weak bipartisan support for the Cold War. Democrats apologized for the Soviets. See Senator Bernie Sanders for one of those monsters preserved in amber in our government today.

I've said many time that the liberals of my younger days are gone. At least in defining the Democratic Party. Once, liberals were stalwart supporters of freedom of speech and individual civil rights. They supported blue collar families. I admired that, even as I disagreed with almost all of their policies. Now "progressives" are in charge of Democrats. And for those not paying attention, the outpouring of enthusiastic support from progressives for the Hamas slaughter, rape, and kidnapping of Jews on October 7th may finally demonstrate what the Democratic Party has become--enablers of cheerleaders of genocide. Let's re-think who is "deplorable" in the American political spectrum, eh?

And now for something completely different:
You think you hate and distrust the media enough. You don't.


Biden administration efforts to delay Israeli military operations. Democrats don't like Israel these days. So falling for the Hamas ploy is predictable: "The Biden administration is frantically trying to stall Israel’s invasion of Gaza in hopes of furthering negotiations over the more than 200 hostages still held by Hamas, a report said Sunday." Hamas would happily release one per week. I'm being generous saying Biden is "falling for" the ploy. I think Biden would call that outcome a success of Smart Diplomacy.® 

Good: "The U.S. Air Force is moving ahead with its plan to build homeland-defense radars that can detect a new generation of Russian cruise missiles—including a search for sites whose total area could cover nearly half of Manhattan." North America is no longer a sanctuary.

As we deploy forces around Israel, remember that we are a large part of the Multinational Force and Observers along the Egypt-Israel border. You never can tell when the MFO will be a target of the jihadis.

Hmmm: "A call by Ethiopia’s prime minister for his country to regain access to the Red Sea after a 30-year hiatus has sparked fears that the issue could destabilize the Horn of Africa." Eritrea's exit from Ethiopia after a long war ended Ethiopia's access to the Red Sea.

Is Australia strong enough to embrace China economically without China demanding Australian subservience? A strong alliance with America is a big help, of course. But Chinese imperial attitudes are hard to kill.

As the difficulties of urban warfare are contemplated, remember that rubble is good for defenders for both cover and obstacles to enemy vehicle movement. As I've noted, a decision to fight for a city is a decision to destroy it. That's not original. But it is true. The decision is one Hamas and Israel make jointly.

More on the Carney air defense engagement over 9 hours. It has from the start seemed odd that we would be Israel's first line of defense for this. Maybe we are to free up Israeli air defense assets for the Gaza and Hezbollah threats. But is it out of line to wonder if the Houthis--on Iran's order--attacked our destroyer and we don't want to admit it to avoid the need to escalate now? It would not be the first time an American destroyer was attacked by the Houthi. And don't forget the Cole incident.

It's fair to wonder if Iran infiltrated the White House and compromised Biden if their agents are doing exactly what the Biden administration wants.

I'm assuming that as many of our four SSGNs that we can make available are on station somewhere from the Mediterranean to the Arabian Sea, or heading that way.

Russia wants to conquer Ukraine. But how Russia wants to do it is unclear--even to the Russians.

It's so cute that Russians think they'll be asked: "It would be out of character for Russians to accept being the junior partner to a country that has failed to provide military support. But then again, not much noise was made when China included Bolshoi Ussuriysky Island, currently Russian territory, on its new world map." I mentioned that new "official map" revision two weeks ago. It was clever of China to make the point when Russia is fully engaged in the west. There is more to come, I assume.

If the employees don't like working for a hate group, they should quit. Tip to Instapundit.

Throwing an elbow: "The United States on Monday renewed a warning that it will defend the Philippines against any armed attacks after the island nation accused Chinese coastguard ships of 'intentionally' hitting its vessels in the South China Sea over the weekend." 

Maybe I don't know enough, but I think Strategypage is over-estimating the effects of the GMLRS on Russia's rail lines north of the Sea of Azov: "The four-month-old Ukrainian offensive in southern Ukraine recently achieved a major objective. Ukrainian forces advanced to within GMLRS missile range of the only Russian rail line that carried supplies to occupied Crimea. Ukraine had already disabled the other rail supply route to Crimea, which used the Kerch Strait bridge." Ukraine don't have that many systems (mostly HIMARS) to launch the rockets. And Russia can repair rail lines. It's not like Russia needs the lines open 24/7. Get back to me if Ukraine drops the Kerch Strait bridge. And when Ukrainian guns are within range of the rail lines.

Huh. The University of Michigan wasn't the school in our state with the worst story of last week. Thank you, MSU.

Sort of preaching to the TDR choir. I'd much rather support Iranians who want to destroy the mullah regime than wage war on the mullah regime to destroy their nuclear weapons potential. The latter could only buy time. But we'd at least have more time to achieve the former.

Hamas released a new ration of two hostages that it hopes will hold off Israeli attacks as fools call it a sign of "good will" by murderous and vile terrorists.

Have we passed Peak Stupid? Glamour magazine women of the year winners are all actual women. Tip to Instapundit. 

North Korea is crazy if they think any nuclear-armed submarine they put to sea will survive for long: "The U.S. and the Republic of Korea’s navies completed a combined theater anti-submarine warfare exercise this month aimed at improving submarine tracking and engagement, amid heightened nuclear threats from North Korea."

Rehearsing for the big one: "Western militaries respond by moving troops across Germany to Poland and the Baltic states in the hopes of deterrence, but in preparation for defense." As long as it isn't a new version of a 21st century Dyle Plan.

Finally: "Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has submitted a protocol for Sweden’s admission into NATO to Turkey’s parliament for ratification[.]" I assume Erdogan is confident he will get new F-16s. Fingers crossed Hungary won't continue to be ... problematic.

They have a point: "Britain should either increase it’s military presence in the Indo-Pacific or curb its ambitions in the region, according to the parliamentary Defence Committee." Before Russia brought war to Europe, Britain's Indo-Pacific plans made sense. And for trade it still does. But now Britain has to think closer to home for military deployments. I'd rather have Europeans in Asia just for tripwire purposes.

Huh: " For the past year, a Marine reconnaissance platoon has been testing an all-electric motorcycle that will help bolster its role as the eyes and ears of a Marine ground combat force in the expected future fight." I can't help but think that lightening up the recon is a mistake. Heck, even the Israelis went down that recon dead end. Maybe drones change everything. Well, until counter-measures are fielded.

China continues to blockade the Philippines outpost on Second Thomas Shoal. The U.S. reminded China of our defense pact with the Philippines. Before we start shooting at the Chinese, maybe try Berlin Airlift (East), eh?

Jewish people could ignore the red-green alliance that uses hatred of Jews to paper over other issues (coughLGBTQUERTYcough) that divide them. October 7th and the reaction of the left which celebrated the Hamas mass murder, rape, and kidnappings of Israelis erased the ability to pretend. For many Jews, not all, of course. There will always be "goodlife" willing to stick with the left and its Islamo-Fascist buddies no matter what. It was a great mistake to believe Nazis--national socialists--were creatures of the right rather than of the left. One more thing to blame on our media. And while "conservatives" in past centuries have been a home of anti-Jewish actions, today's conservatives in America are not the monarchists of Europe but  more often the "classical liberals" of economic and personal freedom. Tip to Instapundit.

Russia is replacing the Wagner assault units with other convict-based assault "Storm Z" units to throw at the Ukrainians to inflict losses on them at the price of Russian garbage people that Moscow would prefer to see dead, anyway. I suspect these new units won't have the esprit de corps that Wagner gave them to disguise their disposable nature.

Russia passed a potential artillery ammunition crisis as its production and some North Korean imports fill the gaps. Russian artillery fire will be about 12-20% of first-year usage, but high enough to fight in 2024. Ukraine relies on the West to sustain its artillery fire. No word on how Russian artillery barrels--which wear out--will hold out. I assume that Ukraine's continued attacks on Russian logistics will continue to cause localized shortages. But the Russian shells will get through on a static front line.

A reminder that you might want to read my post on "proportionality" and the rules of war. The laws of war video I embedded in an update at the end is great. It reassured me that my memories of what I thought I knew were accurate. 

Speaking of goodlife. I noted back in 2005 that many Westerners are honored to be the victims of the jihadis. As I concluded: "Our multi-cultis are capable of excusing any offense by our enemies and magnifying any flaw on our side to excuse beheadings and honor killings and whatever else our jihadi enemies decide we deserve. When some on our side decide to be nonjudgmental, the sky's the limit for our enemies." [LATER: The goodlife was mercifully the usual suspects in the media rather than the woman hostage who was wrongly portrayed.]

Why are we accepting Iranian attacks on our forces in Syria and Iraq? Unless we are ramping up right now, Blinken's "blood and guts" warning to Iran sounds hollow. To be fair, I assume we are waiting to restore our air defense assets Biden withdrew from the region a couple years ago in order to defend against Iranian ballistic missiles it fired at our bases in Iraq after we killed Iranian terror master Soleimani. [THURSDAY: News reports that Air Force planes struck Iranian proxies in eastern Syria that have been bombarding our outposts. It seems limited. And apparently our air defense are in place.]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say Macron's purpose is to dilute the resolve Israel has and constrain its actions: "The French president, Emmanuel Macron, has proposed widening the international coalition against Islamic State to fight the Palestinian militant group Hamas as he made a visit to Israel."

The U.S. will send its two Iron Dome batteries back to Israel. We say we really aren't planning to integrate these with our forces anyway. Perhaps they were just to see how a future American-designed system could fit in.

Oh FFS: "The White House scrapped plans to have the new wave band the B-52s perform at Wednesday’s state dinner for Australia’s prime minister after deciding that it would be inappropriate at a time when 'so many are facing sorrow and pain,' in the words of first lady Jill Biden." Ah, the words of Doctor Biden. So much for passing Peak Stupid. Unleash the James Taylor!

Of course: "The U.S. Air Force is planning to position aircraft at a military base near Athens in connection with the American response to events in Israel, Greek media reported this week." It's not like Hamas fanboy Erdogan would let us use our Incirlik air base, eh?

Netanyahu was warned about the October 7th Hamas attacks? This is a hit piece. Notwithstanding the headline's implication, that's not what is claimed. This is a partisan attack published by a partisan outfit blaming Israel's "distraction" on internal divisions caused by Netanyahu's attempt to reform an overly powerful judiciary. The left's excessive reaction was what caused distractions--if they were to blame for the failure to see this coming terror attack. And note that the author founded "an Arab-Israeli peace organization" and interviewed a left-wing Israeli politician who is on that organization's advisory board as the source of the accusation! And it includes only a partial transcript. Regardless of politics, the Israeli military on guard along the Gaza border the morning of October 7, 2003 had no excuse for thinking their front was as quiet as the Ardennes front on the morning in December 16, 1944. Tip to Instapundit. 

Huh: "Senators and policy experts say Hamas’s attacks against Israeli citizens and the bombardment of Gaza by Israeli forces have inflamed tensions and will put pressure on Biden to take a harder line against Iran, scuttling any hope of reviving elements of the Iran nuclear deal in the foreseeable future." It is very odd that Iran wasn't willing to patiently wait for Biden to surrender the region to Iran.

The threat of Greenland's ice sheet melting is overblown. Also, if it happened it would take 10,000 years. So ...

From the "Well, Duh" files: "The removal of China’s foreign and defense ministers appears to enforce leader ’s demand for total obedience and the elimination of any potential rivals within the ruling Communist Party, analysts say." Yeah. But be careful what you wish for.

China's rulers have no idea what their economic statistics really are. Yeah, the bifurcated system of fake public statistics to fool the people and foreigners and a covert means of getting the truth to the top has broken. I mean, how can Chinese genetic long-range planning talent work without knowing the truth now?

At China's Belt and Road forum: "Putin’s words, coupled with the lack of any meaningful results of the meeting (bar a contract on food and agricultural products which has yet to be confirmed by Beijing), illustrate the extent to which Russia’s war against Ukraine has deepened the asymmetry between the two powers." Well, sure.

If you define "victory" for Israel in its war against Hamas as making the Palestinians love Israel, sure, the war will fail. And yes, my statement is hyperbolic. We all know that. So don't get your panties in a twist. But we saw how crushing Germany and Japan in 1945 undid their hate that "emerged from, a much larger, decades-long conflict that has brought much suffering—to both sides[.]" So maybe after 50 years something good can be built on the foundation of the destruction of Hamas. For some reason there is a class of people in the West who hold the bar of victory high for the West but very low for its enemies. So if some fraction of Hamas survives the war, be prepared for proclamations of Hamas "victory."

Government censorship by proxy. The media is sadly the government's willing collaborator when Democrats are in the White House. Otherwise they're just the Democrats' willing collaborator. This would be called a Constitutional crisis if Republicans did it. You know it would. Tip to Instapundit.

In his mind, Obama made love to the mullah regime in Iran every day. I know you come here for perspective.

Unless the clock has ticked too long for Israel to be thorough without a political backlash from the Biden administration, I'd agree that: "the war triggered by Hamas’ barbaric attacks on Israeli civilians on October 7 will be the first zero-sum conflict in the Arab-Israeli arena since 1948." Because if America isn't resolute and open in backing Israel's destruction of Hamas, no Arab state that doesn't like Iran or its proxies will prevent their people drunk on Jewish blood lust from demanding their governments act against Israel--and America.

Clearly, left-wing administrators and not left-wing students are the real product: "Harvard University employs about 1,352 full-time administrators for every 1,000 undergraduate students enrolled at the university, an analysis conducted by The College Fix found." Tip to Instapundit. It would be cheaper to give each student a personal butler.

Powered Joint Direct Attack Munition: Turning a bomb into a cheap loitering cruise missile. I have a nagging feeling this is turning a cheap field expedient drone weapon into an expensive weapon.

SDBs for Israel.

Oregon says minority students can't possibly be expected to learn how to read, write, and do math--so won't require those skills to graduate. That will work out just swell, I'm sure. If there are any old timey KKK people still out there, they must be kicking themselves for not labeling their identical views about minorities as "progressive." Let's note right now that Oregon was established as a whites-only sanctuary. The apple doesn't fall far from the tree, I guess. Tip to Instapundit.

This author says Eisenhower is staying in the Mediterranean while Ford is heading to CENTCOM. That's the reverse of what was ordered for those carriers. If true, it makes sense considering I said in this data dump that Eisenhower being dispatched to the region from North America might have specialized equipment and personnel for missions around Israel. It might look too obvious to prying eyes to transfer equipment to Ford.

Some leftists say Hamas is kinder and gentler because its covenant was amended to simply speak of getting rid of Israel: "Israel will exist and will continue to exist until Islam will obliterate it, just as it obliterated others before it" See? No slaughter of Jews is even mentioned. Just the formal state of Israel should go! It's just a paperwork issue, really. Hamas sure did display on October 7th how it sees its role in obliterating the state of Israel without slaughtering Jews. Hey, what other countries are on the list to be obliterated, considering Hamas says Israel is just the most recent in a long line of victims? Just asking for a friend.

Counting on some hidden Putin illness to kill him and save Ukraine is some low-odds madness, if you ask me. Don't assume a replacement would be better. Although Putin or his replacement could always decide retreat is a better route to survival than continued war.

How Russia has mostly used its old T-62s: "the tanks function as do-it-yourself howitzers by super-elevating their guns and blasting away, inaccurately, at Ukrainian positions."

I compared Israel's laxity along the Gaza border to our 1944 Ardennes front failure in an earlier entry here. But like that battle, individual Israelis used initiative to fight and prevent the Hamas atrocities from being much worse

Wow: "Russia has freed up to 100,000 prison inmates and sent them to fight in Ukraine, according to government statistics and rights advocates — a far greater number than was previously known." The prison population has gone from 460,000 when the war started to 266,000 now. How soon before Russia conducts mass arrests to cycle through the prison system?

The U.S. is working to help Ukraine rebuild its defense industrial base

Well, yes: "Depleted weapons stockpiles and a dangerous security outlook mean NATO countries need to ramp up arms production for the long haul, the alliance’s top official said Wednesday." The Russian military hasn't looked that good. But it could have kept shooting long after the Europeans ran out of ammo.

Maybe: "Chinese President Xi Jinping’s removal of four ministers and demotion of former foreign minister Qin Gang makes Xi look powerful, but actually is a symptom of weaknesses in his leadership, analysts say." Or maybe it's a symptom of his ability to crush political enemies with no consequences.

Good: "The U.S. Air Force has activated two detachments at Robins Air Force Base in Georgia dedicated to electronic warfare and its future applications."

I've long wondered if Israel can tap the desire of Lebanese to break Hezbollah's state-within-a-state hold on Lebanon: "As a result, Hezbollah cemented its power-grab on Lebanon and is dragging it into the current Israeli-Hamas war, against the wishes of the majority of the Lebanese people." I've considered it counter-productive for Israel to threaten to punish Lebanon for "hosting" Hezbollah. I don't think Lebanon is strong enough to fight Hezbollah without powerful friends. Things can always get worse there.

Israel has fronts backed by Iran in Gaza, Lebanon, and the West Bank. Don't forget the Syria front Iran is trying to establish. And behind that lies Iran with nuclear ambitions. I worry those active fronts are concealing Iran's final dash to nuclear weapons.

Sure: "The latest Middle East confrontation is a reminder of the primacy the United States places on aircraft carrier deployments as a crisis response." Yes, carriers are a symbol of American power and they are useful in power projection missions against states that lack the ability to target them. My concern is for sea control missions against peer-level anti-ship threats. I worry that small states are getting that ability to strike our carriers even in power projection missions. Hezbollah hit an Israeli warship some years ago. The Houthis shot missiles at one of our destroyers several years ago. And look at what Ukraine is doing to Russia's Black Sea fleet. Are we sure Iran hasn't equipped its many allies with something more potent? Huge carriers can go from being a symbol of power to a symbol of weakness with one good video.

I wonder if Iran really wants to fight America now. I mean, how much ammunition and weaponry has Iran sold to Russia? Does Iran have enough to fight American forces if America seriously fights back? Or is this all an Iranian bluff? Of course, setting an American warship ablaze might get the administration to back down. Iran may believe we are now a "weak horse."

Analyzing the Winter War of 2022. Oh? "Another surprising element of Putin’s invasion plan is that it violated the Sidorenko force requirements in Russian military field manuals. At the start of 2022, the Ukrainian military had 196,600 active-duty personnel, which, according to the 3:1 force ratio rule, would have required an invasion of 590,000 Russian personnel." That's not how the 3:1 rule works. That put me off finishing the piece. But I returned to it, and it did have a good description of the war up to publication.

China's Achilles' Heel of its economic sprint. I was on that a while ago. Also, I don't really worry about the Thucydides Trap with China.

You don't hate and distrust our media nearly as much as you should: "Mrs Lifschitz [who was kidnapped by Hamas on its October 7th terror invasion] was released on Monday evening. ‘Released Israeli hostage shakes her captor’s hand’, gushed the BBC, encouraging us to think this elderly lady must have got on pretty well with her Hamas keepers. Then came the new post, the updated one, the correction, the truth. ‘I went through hell, says 85-year-old hostage released by Hamas’, it said." I lack the nuance gene, but even I can see there was a change. The author concludes, "We are living through the nadir of journalism." Oh, I doubt we've hit bottom.

The Chinese are playing with fire: "A Chinese fighter pilot nearly crashed into an American B-52 bomber over the South China Sea during a nighttime intercept on Tuesday, according to U.S. Indo-Pacific Command." Who can order the PLA to war, anyway?

American air defense forces previously alerted are heading to the Middle East. So what did we deploy prior to launching those tiny air strikes on Iranian Revolutionary Guards weapons storage locations in eastern Syria?

Russia pulls the plug on the Battalion Tactical Group: "The Russian army is abandoning the BTG (Battalion Task Group) concept. In February 2022 one of the surprising developments was the failure of the BTG system. Russia had expanded the use of BTGs since the 1980s because BTGs had consistently proved successful in many small wars, including the rather large operation in Afghanistan during the 1980s." Killing the BTG seemed implicit in Russia's plans to rebuild their army. I didn't see the BTG as doing well in the invasion. But I was never impressed with it. On the bright side, did China adopt it? There is a related side trip to the China threat to Russia's Far East.

Meanwhile in the Pacific: "US President Joe Biden has warned China that the US will defend the Philippines in case of any attack in the disputed South China Sea."

Huh. A sign of life in a group I thought had become just another Democratic Party auxiliary. Tip to Instapundit.

Our planet swallowed a continent: "The splintered remnants of Argoland, a 155 million-year-old continent that once stretched as wide as the United States, were recently located throughout the Indian Ocean and Southeast Asia."

The implication is that the Houthi did it: "Projectiles hit two Egyptian Red Sea towns on Friday, sources and officials said, injuring six people and showing the risk of regional spillover from the Israel-Gaza conflict." But if so, why didn't our Navy intercept the drones? Did the Houthi detour overland to avoid the Navy?

Industry catches up to my Army magazine suggestion for a drone interceptor: "Fortem Technologies, a Utah-based airspace security and defense company, has developed a net-slinging drone interceptor called the DroneHunter F700, a fully autonomous, radar-guided counter-UAS weapon built to stop Group 1 and large Group 2 drones."

I'd say that it was shameful for Biden to choose fossil fuels from Venezuela over supplies from our ally Canada. But under Justin Trudeau, Canada is becoming Venezuela-with-snow. 

Interesting argument that China's economic problems are self inflicted by a CCP leadership that wrongly thinks the USSR collapsed from a simple lack of will to remain in power. China is applying the wrong lesson as it clamps down on the Chinese people. And worse, that error pushes China to align with Russia against America in the belief that America is the cause of both of their problems: "As in the US, the projection of domestic problems and fears onto foreigners raises Sino-American tensions unnecessarily. It also leads China into an alignment with Putin’s Russia, because of a mistaken sense that Russia and China face the same risks." I wonder if Putin's invasion of Ukraine will change China's view of Russia's value. Interesting times, indeed.

Sweden isn't home free because Turkey's parliament has not approved Sweden's application to join NATO. And America hasn't approved F-16s for Turkey. Also, I suspected Russia was involved in the Koran burnings Russia advertised to the Moslem world: "Moreover, it appeared that the men involved in the book-burning incidents had links to Moscow."

We are paying too little attention to our ability to move and sustain forces overseas. Preaching to the TDR choir.

I'll note again that the trickle of Hamas rockets hitting Israeli civilian targets three weeks after the war started shows how hard it is to suppress that fire with your own firepower. The ultimate missile defense is your soldier standing on their missile launch sites. Keep that in mind as you ponder the potential Hezbollah front. I don't think Israel can hold the line and rely on firepower there.

How often have you heard analysts say that America has two carriers deployed in response to the Hamas war? "The Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group is more than halfway across the Atlantic on its way to join the mass of U.S. naval forces in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East[.]" I reported the strike group as on its way. 

The U.S. announced a new nuclear bomb--the B61-13. I guess a new strategic stealth bomber--the B-21--needs a new bomb. I sure hope our computer simulations work since we don't conduct nuclear tests anymore.

Submarine maintenance woes. Fingers crossed our enemies have worse problems.

NewsGuard "disinformation" outfit slams Daily Wire for saying terrorists are to blame for the Gaza hospital strike. Nobody is sure, they say. I don't recall any fact checking when the Hamas-sourced story claimed Israel killed a huge number of people there. You simply do not hate and distrust our media enough. Tip to Instapundit.

Clearly, America's tiny air strikes inside Syria against Iranian targets were just Retaliation Theater designed to look like the administration is trying to deter Iran rather than trying to deter Iran by inflicting serious pain they don't want repeated: "Just hours after U.S. fighter jets bombed facilities used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and its proxies in Syria early Friday, the proxies fired back — launching an attack drone at U.S. forces in western Iraq." 

If Israel is killing so many Palestinians, why do the Palestinians need to simulate victims? I'd say the terrorists are tricking our media. But our media wants to be fooled. You think you hate and distrust our media enough. You don't. Tip to Instapundit.

LOL:

 

As America battles Iran proxies inside Syria, "one must ask why those Americans are in harm’s way in the first place and whether the risks of keeping them there are commensurate with the perceived benefits. More than four years after the ISIS territorial caliphate was destroyed, one gets the sense that U.S. policy in Syria and Iraq is governed more by inertia than by a set of objectives that are clear, measurable, and achievable." While I think our presence serves good functions, I agree we should decide if those objectives are worth our troops dying to achieve. Without that decision it is hard to do more than Retaliation Theater (see earlier entry).

Will the surviving hostages ultimately be saved because the Hamas and other terrorist leaders inside Gaza fear for their lives enough to trade them for safe passage out of Gaza? Israel would make that deal. And then hunt the leaders down with the special unit tasked with hunting down every terrorist that helped carry out the October 7th terror invasion. 

Tip to Instapundit, American astronauts are scheduled to orbit the Moon in preparation for an eventual landing. The orbit is scheduled for November 2024. But the article explains that in a few weeks, a private robotic lander--NOVA-C --will return America's presence to the Moon in preparation for astronauts returning in 2025. America's return to the Moon is great. Aside from celebrating the belated space progress (would it have happened without China's drive?) am I cynical to wonder if that orbit will take place before the election? 

Given the importance of Congo's cobalt and the child labor involved in mining it, why don't we call our EV power sources "Blood Batteries"? Whatever. That's a small price to pay for the sense of moral superiority EV owners can display. Tip to PJ Media.

Russia adds indoctrination for high school kids (and future conscripts); and aims at giving reservists some minimal refresher training. I suspect that the determination of leadership to expand the program will dilute it to the point of irrelevance.

Are the combatants in the Winter War of 2022 too far behind in modern combat skills to teach Western armies relevant lessons?  Tip to TDI.

Huh. Did the media mis-translate the Hamas claim about 500 victims at the hospital blast as 500 deaths? If so, we have a damning indication that the media was primed and waiting for something really bad to report about Israel. And for them the apparent claim was too good to check. Imagine, even Hamas wasn't willing to claim 500 dead as they blamed Israel for the strike. As I say, you think you hate and distrust our media enough. But you don't. Tip to Instapundit.

For Hamas rulers, dead Palestinians are a feature rather than a bug of their strategy. Via Instapundit.

Iran is raising the prospect of a wider war to intimidate America over supporting Israel. I certainly want a localized war, but Iran's threats offend me. Iran should be soiling its underwear thinking about war with America--not the other way around. A superpower should not flinch from a barbarian state beating its chest and flinging poo. And if others in the region believe the threat of our power, we won't get a wider war. But I fear too many see America as the "weak horse" after our astounding self-defeat in Afghanistan. I mean, it would be crazy not to believe Allah is on your side after witnessing that skedaddle debacle, right?

Perhaps, at long last, Harvard has discovered human decency. Tip to Instapundit.

I think this was a strategic mistake: "Russians commemorated the victims of Stalinist terror on Sunday, more than 20 months into Moscow's Ukraine offensive that has been accompanied at home by a major crackdown on dissent." Reminding Putin of that era won't shame him. It will give him a "how-to" manual for harsher repression. 

I'm still adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.