China is unlikely to go to war to distract their people from internal problems? Academics seemingly fall prey to their own detailed knowledge of a subject to think the most irrelevant distinction is important.
Chinese leaders have rarely, if ever, started a conflict purely as a diversion, even during moments of domestic crisis. That is, in part, because the Chinese state has more control over public opinion and society, including protests, than do other governments. When the Chinese economy falters, the danger is not diversionary war. It is that China’s leaders will feel weak and become more sensitive to external challenges, potentially lashing out to show strength and deter other countries from taking advantage of their insecurity.
Saying the CCP hasn't started a conflict purely as a diversion yet despite past internal problems doesn't persuade me this worry is a myth.
One, CCP leaders may not have felt the internal problems were beyond their ability to control. After all, the CCP did survive those past crises.
And two, China lacked the military
power it now has--including nukes to deter the worst repercussions from a
decision to try war as a solution to internal problems.
Oh, and the author then goes on to say China might launch a foreign war
to deter foreigners from invading rather than distracting their own
people. Yeah, I'm not comforted. But sure, lots of papers and books could be written explaining whether the CCP went to war to distract their people with a foreign threat or to deter foreign intervention to allow the CCP a free hand to suppress internal unrest.
I don't know how likely it is that the CCP would go to war to preserve their power--for either or any reason--during any given internal crisis. But preserving the party's power is the highest objective.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
