Is the Winter War of 2022 all over but for how the peace is made? Maybe. But can we just skip to the part where Russia wants to be a prosperous member of the West?
The war grinds on with Russian offensive activity generally ticking up while Ukraine's is apparently lower. I don't know if this means Russia is clawing back the initiative or if Ukraine is repositioning reserves for something new.
Obviously, people in the West are looking for an exit. Can being generous to Russia despite their brutal war on Ukraine convince Russia to join the West?
Let's not get ahead of ourselves:
The Americans understood after the treatment of Germany following World War I that trying to crush a nation could cost the United States and the world a great deal, whereas rehabilitating the defeated helped to avoid wars of revenge while enhancing the global economic system. It also opened the door to military and political alliances. West Germany joined NATO, and Japan became a long-term American ally.
I have tried to show that the war has ended – in the sense that no one is in a position to achieve their goal – but that a peace settlement that sustains itself is extremely difficult. If the United States follows the World War II model in which, rather than demanding surrender, which is not possible for Moscow, it focuses on a relationship based on rebuilding rather than destroying Russia, it might withdraw from a war that is over, while the Russians might pursue their economic interest: developing an economy that places them in the top rank of nations.I think people get confused about this issue, pretending that the post-World War II policy toward Germany was generous while the post-World War I policy was punitive. I think it is almost backwards. We went easy on Germany after 1918 and that let them eventually pretend Germany was not defeated, building up new grievances to reverse.
On the other hand, we could be generous with rebuilding Germany and Japan after World War II because we crushed them in war. Absolutely smashed their military power, pummeled their homelands, and physically occupied them to purge their societies:
You know, the common wisdom is that the Treaty of Versailles was too harsh on Imperial Germany after World War I, which led to the rise of Hitler. When you compare the occupation, dismemberment, and de-Nazification of Germany after 1945 which created a prosperous and democratic allied Germany, you have to conclude that the Allies weren't nearly harsh enough in 1918.
And since 1991, we've treated the Russians with kid gloves, and now they too think they've been betrayed and deny they were really defeated in the Cold War. Now the Russians pretend they were being reasonable and just voluntarily gave up their empire. Of course, occupying Russia and de-Commiefying Moscow was never going to happen. We didn't have much choice at the time since Russia still had lots of working nukes. But the result has been a Russia that increasingly acts like they want to be our enemy.
And after we crushed our enemies in World War II we rebuilt them--and the rest--in our image:
It is easy to forget--and this was a useful reminder to me--that Europe with its autocracies and monarchies was not fully part of a free West (although obviously part of the Western tradition) until we rebuilt Western Europe in that template after World War II. And NATO expansion after defeating the Soviet Union was more explicit in demanding democracy and rule of law for new members.
Unless Russia is crushed in Ukraine, there will be no chance of a door opening for military and political alliances with the West. It will just be a period for Russia to reload and nurse grievances with a new "stabbed in the back" theory for their failure to win. Just like what happened after the West defeated the USSR in the Cold War.
Let's take Vienna. That's the only path to rehabilitating Russia and getting them into the West.
I really respect the author of the original piece in question. But I honestly don't get how he draws his conclusion about a viable peace settlement in Ukraine.
UPDATE (Monday): Hmmm. Ukraine struck Russian air defenses in western Crimea. And there are reports of spotting in the south Ukrainian aircraft capable of carrying Storm Shadow cruise missiles to exploit sudden gaps in Russian air defenses in the region. The Ukrainian effort to push Russia back from the Kherson front seems purposeful.
UPDATE (Tuesday): Russians don't want "peace"--they want conquest:
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Monday that Moscow is ready for talks on the "post-conflict settlement" of the war in Ukraine.
Russia is either desperate to cash in their chips because their ground forces are barely holding together; or Russia is trying to end Western support for Ukraine's fight by portraying Ukraine as the party uninterested in "peace".
We should insist that Russia only talk directly to Ukraine. Don't let Russia score a propaganda victory by letting them pretend NATO is who Russia is at war with and that Ukraine is nothing but a Western tool with no legitimacy.
Note that Russia's demand for "peace" includes the land Russia doesn't hold in the four Ukrainian provinces it illegally annexed last year.
UPDATE (Sunday): Few details: "The Russian military said a Ukrainian missile strike on a shipyard in annexed Crimea had damaged a Russian ship."
UPDATE (Sunday): I'd be shocked if that hadn't happened given it was used in World War I and American Civil War trench warfare:
Russian sources continued to claim that Russian forces were digging tunnels to destroy Ukrainian positions and launch surprise attacks in the Avdiivka direction. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces dug a tunnel to a Ukrainian position and mined it, destroying the Ukrainian position.
Also:
Ukrainian forces are reportedly counterattacking against Russian advances in the Avdiivka direction as of November 4. A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked against Russian advances near the railway north of Avdiivka.
That's good. But I'd like to see a counter-attack that isn't small scale and instead cuts off the Russian pincers trying to close around the city.
NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here.
NOTE: I'm still adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.
