Are unmanned surface vessels a revolutionary weapon that will transform naval combat and navies themselves? Maybe take a deep breath first.
Sure, USVs are the flavor of the month for naval power analysts. But don't go overboard thinking that Ukraine's Sevastopol with unmanned attack boats signals a revolution in naval warfare:
In late 2022, Ukraine launched an audacious raid on the Russian Black Sea Fleet using a combination of UAVs and uncrewed surface vessels (USVs). The innovative use of USVs as ‘suicide craft’ was of particular note to many commentators, with some heralding the attack as the portent of a new era in warfare at sea. While this is understandable, the significance of the attack should be caveated, and the use of autonomous capabilities set within a wider context. ...
The transformative potential of uncrewed platforms depends on identifying operational problems which they are uniquely well-suited to resolving. In other cases, they may make a useful tool to augment other capabilities, as with UAVs and missiles. There will also be cases where transformative ideas are decidedly less useful than maintaining traditional forces and building additional capacity within them.
USVs certainly add to enemy problems in certain cases such as while in ports or in littoral chokepoints, as the article describes. But countermeasures to USVs will be created with new tactics or new capabilities. Mistaking a weapon as a silver bullet happens just as failing to adopt a revolutionary weapon happens.
Do read it all.
I'll say that they add only a little to the threat of existing long-range anti-ship missiles or torpedoes, both of which can be guided to the target just like the USVs Ukraine used.
Hell, I think my ASuROC suggestion
blending the speed and range of missiles with the a torpedo that avoids missile defenses might work better than USVs:
Couldn't we use the Tomahawk with an anti-ship homing torpedo instead of a warhead, which is released near the target ship but before the anti-ship missile can be used?
Our ASROC is a torpedo designed to go after subs which is attached to a rocket to get it closer. So the mechanism should be fine for an Anti-Surface ship ROCket (ASuROC), no?
Could the Tomahawk have sensors that verify the target ship and pass the location data to the torpedo so it can use its own homing sensors to lock on to the right target?
Perhaps the torpedo would need to be dropped so close to the target ship that if the Tomahawk made it that far it might as well be aimed at the ship. Although 50 kilometers (the Mark 48) seems pretty good stand-off range.
And couldn't delivery by missile give torpedo attacks the ability to overwhelm torpedo defenses with large numbers?
The USV travels slowly on the surface from launch point to the target. ASuROC flies the warhead closer to the target faster before the slower smart torpedo takes over, striking a ship below the water line.
I'll add to my older thoughts that the Tomahawk could continue toward the target ship after releasing the torpedo. Kinetic energy from impact and whatever fuel is on board could inflict damage, too, while distracting the target with a more imminent threat.
Still, perhaps the torpedo would have to be so small to work with a Tomahawk that the torpedo range would be too short to prevent enemy air defenses from shooting down the torpedo-carrying missile.
Anyway, don't fling your panties at the USV just yet. Retain a shred of dignity, eh?
UPDATE: Related information on Task Force 59 exploring how to use USVs.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
