From the "Oh, F**k" files: "The latest nutritional advice from the [Egyptian] state suggested cooking up some chicken feet - a protein-rich part of the bird usually reserved as scraps for dogs and cats."
The Black Sea grain export deal was renewed. The term is unknown. But Russia wanted 60 days. The West wanted 120 days. Will the West assume 120 days and dare Russia to stop the food exports?
Where is Code Pink during the Winter War of 2022? Usually they love despots America opposes and make their interest in saving those despots clear. And the media was all too happy to promote them. I assume the Code Pink hags oppose aiding Ukraine. But I'll guess that their enthusiasm is much less with a leftist administration in power. And I'm sure the pro-Democrat media has minimal interest in reporting on them.
I heard an analyst who seems to know what he's talking about say that while he doesn't think the risk of nuclear use by Russia against Ukraine is likely, one shouldn't say that Russia's nukes may not work or that Russian officers won't obey an order to fire nukes. I've certainly raised both issues. I hope I haven't portrayed that I assume they are true. But I think it would be high risk for Putin to order their use given how much Russia relies on them for Russian territorial integrity. Does he want enemies to think they don't work or that officers won't obey orders to use them?
I don't know nearly enough to know if the Northern Ireland deal is good for Brexit or is a Trojan Horse for the EU to launch a subliminal counter-invasion of Britain.
Extending Ukraine's battlefield reach from the air. I suppose it is possible that Ukraine could use HIMARS and anti-radiation missiles on aircraft to suppress Russian air defense missiles to open a temporary corridor for other aircraft with extended-range air-to-ground weapons to strike the Kerch Strait Bridge.
The new and innovative dinosaur super carrier Ford is having teething problems coming out the wazoo: "A ship, especially a warship that has a lot of problems, is often referred to as a cursed ship. The USS Ford, the first of the class, has become a major disaster rather than a more effective new ship design." I was worried about a perfectly working Ford when she was just blueprints. Ah, what a glorious rush to failure.
Turkey will back Finland's bid to join NATO. Sweden waits. Hungary dithers on the applications.
Two F-22s rotated into Clark Air Base in the Philippines for the first time. It's nice to complicate Chinese planning.
New technology will reach Guam next year to help defend it from different types of missiles. That's nice. And needed. But how about hardened aircraft shelters? And I'll speculate that rapid runway repair capabilities are probably low on the priority list.
China seeks a bigger global role ... by bolstering Putin and Iran's mullahs?
Will Russia use tactical nukes against Ukraine? I can't rule it out. But those small nukes don't have the impact of the big city busters. I can't imagine Russia risking that. Don't conflate the two weapon classes. So using tactical nukes would fail to sufficiently frighten Ukrainians. Alienate the world. Maybe even anger China. And possibly convince the West that letting Russia win by using nukes will just lead to more nuclear-armed aggression in the future. America gave up most tactical nukes in favor of precision conventional weapons that do what we once needed small nukes to do. In my view the Western response would likely be to give Ukraine longer-range precision weapons. That would reverse the tactical edge of Russia using nukes.
The Philippines "reported a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy vessel, a China Coast Guard (CCG) vessel, and 42 suspected maritime militia vessels, anchored within 4.5 to 8 nautical miles of [Thitu island in the South China Sea]. The Philippines is lifting the curtain on China's subliminal war.
And ... "After finishing with the Philippines, Chinese maritime militia and fishing boats apparently swarmed inside Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea, according to a Vietnamese research organization citing vessel-tracking data." Will Vietnam draw a line in the EEZ?
Ukraine charged Wagner positions with M-113 APCs and a Dutch variant. Say what? M-113s are not designed for that. Egad, nothing should do that, really. If Wagner had anti-tank weapons they'd be smoldering hulks. Those systems are better suited to ferrying infantry safe from artillery fragments and machine gun fire to unload close to the enemy. Although I concede the Dutch vehicle is marginally more suitable for exposing itself to direct fire.
Thoughts on improving American weapon production capacity.
Putin and fanboys (and girls) of the USSR would like you to believe that Stalin defeated the Nazis. Stalin cruelly bled the USSR to feed the meat grinder. But Stalin didn't defeat the Nazis. And that's glossing over how Stalin enabled the rise of Nazi Germany and got Germany to wage war against France and Western Europe. And without the Western Allies, he could not have pushed the Germans out of the USSR. I suppose you could argue America and the Western Allies fought Nazi Germany to the last Soviet. But that's it. Also, let's talk Soviet rape culture. And Stalin's planned Holocaust of Soviet Jews before he died (was killed?). Also, ponder what Stalin considered doing with his Western-sustained military after all of us defeated Nazi Germany. Effing Communists are always and everywhere evil. Tip to Instapundit.
More ammunition, engineering, and logistics supplies for Ukraine. Among other items.
Bad China! "Secretary Austin underscored the United States' unwavering alliance commitment with the Philippines and reiterated that the Mutual Defense Treaty extends to Philippine armed forces, aircraft, and public vessels, including those of its Coast Guard, anywhere in the South China Sea. The two leaders condemned the PRC's gray-zone activities, which interfere with the livelihoods of local Philippine communities and the rights of other claimant states that seek to operate lawfully in the South China Sea consistent with the 2016 Arbitral Tribunal ruling." About those gray-zone activities.
Sigh. Please, God, let this be satire. Tip to Instapundit.
Thoughts on the Iraq War. I agree with parts and disagree with other parts. But it's measured and admits time changes judgments. I think the war was just and a victory--albeit with mistakes that even the goodiest of good wars has (sadly, the comment of mine I quoted on Instapundit is apparently dead).
America and Japan will partner on designing weapons capable of shooting down hypersonic missiles.
And now for something completely different:
India's economy has advanced but its military hasn't benefited that much. Also, Pakistan supported the Taliban in Afghanistan, which alienated America and gave them a Pakistan-hating Taliban government. And Maoists. And Kashmir.
Russia hasn't tried to bypass urban areas and has instead plowed through them at the cost of high casualties and a lot of time lost. Is this because cities can't be bypassed or because Russia is incapable of bypassing cities?
Russia's regions will have more of the burden of sustaining Putin's invasion of Ukraine in 2023.
If this is the foundation of Peking's drive for global stature, well, have fun storming the castle! "Following Beijing’s role in brokering a peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia this month, Xi’s comments have raised hopes in some quarters that he is preparing to use his leverage with Putin, who is now dependent on trade with China, to bring peace to Ukraine."
Space Force: "The U.S. Space Force is seeking more than $1.2 billion in funding over the next five years for a secretive 'Long Range Kill Chains' program to track moving targets from space." This might be useful for you.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visited Kiev just after Xi visited Russia. It's a reminder to Russia that Japan has options to hurt Russia if Russia won't give back island territory Russia captured from Japan at the end of World War II. And it's a message to China, too, that Japan can bog China down in Ukraine if China escalates support for Russia.
The European Union agreed on a plan to provide Ukraine with artillery shells.
Russia's long, violent war on potential suppliers of Ukraine prior to Russia's invasion. I've noted the poison attack on an arms dealer. I've mentioned the attacks on Bulgarian and Czech arms supplies.
Greta Thunberg was granted an honorary doctorate in theology. LOL. Tip to Instapundit. Now go and emit no more. And now for something completely different:
The U.S. will send an earlier M-1A1 Abrams model to "speed up" delivery of 31 to Ukraine in as little as 8 months. This is embarrassing. That's 8 additional months minimum since the delivery was announced.
Oh nos! That's so sad! "Crippled by war and sanctions, Russia now faces evidence that its already-struggling space program is falling apart." Not that our state space program is all that amazing. And now for something completely different:
Mission from God accomplished? "Iranian security leaders have announced in recent days that they will resume enforcing the mandatory hijab law with a confrontational approach."
Break it up for usable parts and burn the rest to the ground. Tip to Instapundit.
Trump's behavior during the outrageous and dangerous political witch hunt by Alvin Bragg does not make me want to reward him over DeSantis or other Republican candidates for 2024.
From the "Well, Duh" files: "Russian servicemen who joined regional volunteer battalions over the summer of 2022 revealed that the Russian military command treats Russian volunteers like cannon fodder."
A Marine Corps Marine Littoral Regiment practiced how it will fight.
Ukrainian troops are learning how to use Patriot missiles faster than our military expected. That confusion confuses me. In basic training we were told that during war, training would be compressed. Ukrainians are at war.
Of course unit cohesion is important and so team-building despite prejudice is important. But inclusion should not be built on demonizing one group of Americans as the source of all that is evil. I say that if a unit commander has a bigoted troop undermining unit cohesion, deal with that problem troop! The military managed to successfully integrate African-American troops without witch hunts. Why is it incapable of doing the same now?
Well, yes, the Air Force would need to sink PLAN warships that carry air defense weapons in order to defend Taiwan. There are many reasons why the Air Force needs to sink enemy warships. I'm glad the Air Force has some level of awareness about that need:
A government attempt to cancel a depiction of the first "hands up, don't shoot" incident in America.
Collateral damage: "Russia rents [the Roscosmos space launch facility] from Kazakhstan and has fallen behind in rent payments. In response Kazakhstan seized Roscosmos assets at Baikonur. Russia is not getting foreign commercial launch business because of the sanctions. Because of the Ukraine war sanction, Russia has less cash in general and can’t even muster enough troops to threaten Kazakhstan."
Given the high cost of putting mass in orbit, it seems like a waste to bring the ISS down to burn up rather than salvaging it in orbit for other uses. We can't do that. It's still a shame.
Depleted uranium tank gun rounds are not nuclear weapons. They are very dense projectiles to punch through enemy armor. Those rounds are not an escalation of support--not that escalation of support is wrong given the fact that Russia is trying to conquer Ukraine. Oddly enough, all ammunition designed to kill has toxic side effects after use. Let the Russians complain. The bastards make actual nuclear threats.
The U.S. Army is setting up camp in Poland. This goes beyond what I wanted after Russia invaded Georgia.
I'm so old I remember when Democrats said they'd never take the "Trump vaccine."
China is really angry that the Netherlands won't export advanced computer chips to China. The Netherlands should offer to increase exports of "paper teacups" to China.
A long, complicated Russia-China friendship? Frenemies with temporary benefits, I say.
Xi tells Putin to have fun storming the castle: "'Take care of yourself, dear friend, please' and waved goodbye to the Russian president who wished him a 'safe journey'."
Incompetence or resistance in Putin's Russia?
The Israel-Iran Quasi-War goes on: "An Israeli missile strike destroyed a suspected arms depot used by Iran-backed militias at Syria's Aleppo airport Wednesday[.]"
The climate end is always nigh a decade away. And always will be. Scientists do the long science. Activists write the short "synthesis" report. Who "explain" it to activist journalists. Who filter and exaggerate the BS even more. Tip to Instapundit. And now for something completely different:
So leftists really are out to make us miserable? Their self loathing really shouldn't be my problem. Via Instapundit.
Pass, indeed. Hard pass. Tip to Instapundit.
Japan steps up to defend the West--in Europe. China started this. But Russia may pay the price first. But I strongly disagree with the statement that nothing in diplomacy is done by accident.
Americans don't need a "national divorce", whatever that means. Under federalism the states aren't supposed to be married--just friends with limited federal benefits. Honestly, the "sorting" by politics has been going on for decades, now.
Even if Russia's claim is true, so what? Who on Earth claims American weapons and equipment can't be destroyed?
That's nice. And possibly useful. But if Ukrainians with weapons weren't violently resisting the Russians, he and anyone remotely suspected of nonviolent resistance would be dead or in gulags by now. Gandhi had the good fortune to resist a democratic Britain weary of empire.
Russia sends the ancient T-55 back to war. But as Green correctly notes, for infantry support they're fine.
Old time segregationists would be astounded to find out that you can destroy minority chances of success and separate them from white people even as you claim to be the biggest supporters of minorities. Amazing. And shameful. Mostly shameful.
The Long They Line. Said with sadness for the Long Gray Line that graduated before who defended our country.
The rise and fall of the Russian 200th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade.
The Navy: "The shortage of dwell time and 2018 reduction in retirement benefits (by
about 20 percent), the increase in ideological instruction (to make
sailors less sexist and prejudiced), and a general loss of confidence in
senior leadership has reduced morale and the percentage of sailors who
remain in the navy, especially after they have re-enlisted at least
once." No worries.
The Army should focus on Europe because the rest of the military is pivoting to Asia. I somewhat agree--and used the same World War II precedent. But only in part because I fear the Army is being wasted as a naval auxiliary rather than carrying out its core competency in Asia (as I addressed in Military Review, here and here; and provided an example of the synergy of each service dominating their primary domains).
The Air Force is practicing logistics for scattered elements across INDOPACOM.
China falsely claimed it drove an American destroyer out of its faux territorial waters in the South China Sea. Russia should pretend to stand up to America the same way rather than risk incidents in Syria, the Black Sea, or a nuclear arms race (seriously, Russia?)
Oops: "China struck a cordial tone in talks with the Philippines on Thursday,
seeking 'friendly consultation' to settle dispute as South China Sea
tensions rise and the US strengthens ties with its longstanding ally." The Philippines is getting results already. Manila won't be fooled, will it? Probably not.
Well, yes, America's objectives in Ukraine aren't clear now. Initially it was clearly to slow down or stop Russia's onslaught. Now we need to figure out what we want after that. This is not shocking. World War II had been going on for a year to more than three years for the countries fighting Germany in Europe before settling on "unconditional surrender" of the Germans as the objective. And as I noted, our objectives will eventually diverge from Ukraine's.
Could China crush Taiwan with a long blockade of Taiwan's west coast ports that America can't prevent? Maybe. As long as Taiwan's allies don't counter-blockade China. Which has its own dangers.
Increasing interest rates shouldn't be the sole weapon to fight inflation. Tip to Instapundit.
Huh. India repelled a Chinese border grab because of "'...unprecedented intelligence-sharing' by the U.S. with India caught 'China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) forces off-guard' as they prepared to launch their incursion. For '...the first time' U.S. military intelligence officials '...provided real-time details to ... Indian counterparts.' The real-time intelligence detailed 'Chinese positions and force strength.'"
The Russians have an advantage in artillery firepower. But are the Russians firing it because Putin demands inputs he can read in reports? Or is there a measurable output? If measured in ground gained, the advantage isn't that apparent.
The threat is the geopolitical little red sports car of the Russian government: "Asked whether the threat of a nuclear conflict has eased, Medvedev responded: 'No, it hasn’t decreased, it has grown. Every day when they provide Ukraine with foreign weapons brings the nuclear apocalypse closer.'" Medvedev continues to carry out his humiliating role.
Acceptable collateral damage? For who, you might ask. Tip to Instapundit.
Was the loss of our EP-3 to the Chinese 22 years ago a pointless risk? I disagree that America wouldn't tolerate similar flights in international air space off our coast.
The federal government is creating a Social Credit Score with American characters. Our intelligence apparatus expanded to cope with jihadis. As the government declines to see jihadis as much of a threat, instead of reducing that apparatus the government turns the apparatus on loyal Americans deemed enemies of the state. This is evil.
Huh: "A breakthrough that enables a human to guide a robot merely by thinking could help troops on a future battlefield to communicate with a wide array of sensors, vehicles, and robots—all while the enemy is looking to intercept radio communications."
I'll not again that if America is such a "systemically racist" society, why didn't our society hold the line closer to slavery than to an African-American president? Odd, no?
Badthink not allowed to contaminate college students. Tip to Instapundit.
It is valid to ask questions about what America wants in the Winter War of 2022. But Russia can't necessarily leverage its size advantage over Ukraine. Nor do I see the problems Hanson notes as real, more important than stopping Russia, or a result of our support to Ukraine. And then there is the key problem that simply denying Russia a total victory in this war may simply set up Russia for complete victory in a future war.
Saudi Arabia and Syria will restore diplomatic relations. Rather than being a result of Saudi-Iranian detente supposedly engineered by China, I see this as a Saudi effort to pry Arab Syria out of Persian Iran's orbit.
Just defeat Russia. There's no substitute for victory.
Russia has integrated Belarus into its air defense umbrella: "The recent addition of more S-300 systems in Brest completes Russian-Belarusian air defense overage over Poland and much of western Ukraine and further indicates the Belarusian military’s operational subordination to the Russian Western Miliary [sic] District." If Today NATO doesn't defeat Russia in Ukraine, that air defense capability will be a bigger problem for Tomorrow NATO. Russia understands that running the NATO air gauntlet to reach the NATO frontlines is a challenge. Russia has long wanted this and hopes their figurative cavalry will link up with Kaliningrad.
American aircraft struck Iran-linked positions in Syria after an Iranian drone killed a U.S. contractor at an American Coalition base in northeast Syria. Five American troops and another contractor were also wounded by the drone attack.
The murder and atrocities will continue until love for Russia improves.
While I'm at it, keeping the old Baathist-led Iraqi army when we overthrew Saddam would have been a mistake. And it would not have been possible because the army self-disbanded and their bases were looted. [Don't click on any old Geocities links. But it is possible to find the original posts from that dead site by going to the monthly blog archives and searching around a bit or using a word search.]
Russia can locate Starlink terminals. Action and reaction in Ukraine continues.
"Could," of course: "Russia could have its most powerful and quiet nuclear attack submarines on persistent patrols off either U.S. Coast in the next two years[.]"
The coming E-7 replacement for the long-serving E-3 AWACS plane.
Even as Macron maneuvers to be the emperor of the EU, the French peasants at home undermine his coronation.
The Air Force is sending its unwanted A-10s to the Middle East while they still exist.
Mowing the jihadi grass in Somalia. We entered to feed starving Somalis more than 30 years ago and stayed for the jihadis.
China threatens "serious consequences" to the U.S. over freedom of navigation missions in international waters of the South China Sea. Note that our ship was ordered to "conduct routine maritime security operations" there. This indicates there was no mere "innocent passage" through another country's territorial waters. I hope we provide robust overwatch for those ships.
The wealthiest and most annoying illegal immigrant? Tip to Instapundit.
Why more Americans don't recoil from being ruled by--or only told what is true or false by--"arrogant power-worshipping mediocrities" is beyond me. These mediocrities claim our enemies use our Constitution effectively. The real problem is that these mediocrities don't understand how Americans use our Constitution effectively. Laws intended to stop jihadi terrorists have been turned against Americans. I trusted Americans not to do that. I was wrong. I disagree with some of Taibbi's points. For example, jihadi "illegal combatants" don't deserve Geneva Convention protections designed for uniformed soldiers who do not commit war crimes as the price of those protections. That doesn't mean illegal combatants should be crippled by torturing them. But there's a big gap between denying jihadis Geneva Convention protection and torturing them. Still, the larger picture stands. And that's the vitally important part to act on now rather than quibbling over irrelevant details. Tip to Instapundit.
A time traveler warned us that aliens would conquer Earth, killing almost all of us, on March 23, 2023. Tip to Instapundit. To be fair, his prediction was no worse than serial predictions of planetary doom by climate change fanatics.
Does America go crazy every 50 years (tip to Instapundit)? Probably. This bout might be extra bad in causes if not effects. Will we do better next time? I doubt it. I'm an optimist but I'm a realist. I'm only hoping to enjoy the interregnum.
There are tax-calculating programs for federal income taxes. The government drafted all the tax laws. And the government collects data on all of our financial information. Why doesn't the federal government calculate what we owe and let us tell them if they got it right? Right now we play a long-distance game of bartering with a vendor over the price of a Persian rug, but face penalties for getting the price wrong.
As long as that chef cooks a good steak, I don't care what his personal dietary preferences are:
If they can't prove dangerous climate change warming, they'll settle for making us feel warmer to justify making their mental health problems our problem. Via Instapundit.
Okay one more. LOL!
He should be fired. Since he didn't have the decency to resign after the Afghanistan Skedaddle Debacle. Is he a traitor? No. I am not persuaded by the big wet kiss the author gave Milley. I have completely lost confidence in his ability to lead. His firing would only be a good start. Honestly, while I understood Milley's discomfort at the Washington, D.C. church photo op, the bottom line is that it was valid to show that the government had reclaimed the streets from rioters who tried to set fire to that church. The military is not required to remain neutral when rioting takes place. Also, I never worried Trump would stage a coup or try to stay in office with a foreign military clash. That threat was all in faux Resistance heads.
Are China and Russia allies? In my view they are frenemies with temporary benefits.
How sure is Putin that Lukashenko doesn't want the weapons in his country to get an instant nuclear deterrent against Russian invasion? "Russian President Vladimir Putin said Saturday he would deploy tactical nuclear weapons in neighbour and ally Belarus." Is Russia sure Belarus can't bribe the key holders? Or will Russia send missiles with ancient warheads that don't work to foil that sort of plot? Yet the West is supposed to be frightened by this?
Sanctions aren't a silver bullet. But they help: "Russian leader Vladimir Putin likes to boast that Russia has managed to cope with economic sanctions imposed by the West because of the Ukraine War. The reality is different." Russia's military effort is being degraded; and in time the civilian economy may be harmed significantly.
Why do climate change activists hate Africans? Tip to Instapundit.
Russia's claim that it can outproduce the West in regard to sustaining troops in Ukraine is not supported by what we know. Putin counts on Westerners believing his boasts.
