Weekend Data Dump

Army study on the Iraq War (volumes one and two) notes that Saddam's Fedayeen force of jihadi irregulars was tasked by Saddam with operating behind our lines. But my memory of the war is that they launched futile human wave assaults on the flanks of the Army advance toward Baghdad. (Oh, and as I read further on the study notes exactly that tactic.)

The Army study (volumes one and two) also notes that Iran planned their invasion of Iraq before the American-led coalition invaded. Remember that with Iran supporting Shia gangs from the east and with Iran's Syrian vassal funneling in jihadis from the west who united with the Baathists, Iran took care of arming both sides in the Sunni-Shia divide in Iraq.

Libya continues to try to rebuild their state following the 2011 civil war and the "leading from behind" American intervention. The UN supports the western faction trying to form a government while more and more countries are backing the eastern faction led by Hiftar. The two factions continue to discuss and maneuver to control assets and resist militias, of both the looting and jihadi varieties.

India is taking baby steps to having a submarine-based nuclear deterrent. But India needs longer ranged missiles to be a deterrent to China by being able to strike all of China from deep in the Indian Ocean safe from counter-measures because sending their subs with shorter range missiles to the South China Sea or western Pacific to be within range of China isn't really practical. It will be decades before India has such missiles. Until then, I guess Pakistan is deterred. Oh, and why is it taking so long? "Corruption and incompetent management." Hey no worries. India. It's not like you border a rapidly rising power with territorial claims against you, right?

The Special Operations Command aviation regiment now has a drone company it it. I thought TOE stood for "table of organization and equipment," but perhaps things change without me getting the memo.

Germany's decision to forego buying the F-35 in order to forge closer French-German industrial ties to build their own fighter will harm NATO capabilities until, assuming all goes according to plan, 2040. Tell me again how a more united EU will increase European defenses even though that course automatically weakens NATO which has defended Europe since 1949. Oh, and get this: the German Social Democrats consider buying the F-35 a "reward" to Trump. Oh those sophisticated and nuanced Europeans!

Isn't the real story that MRE packages have designs at all? When did that happen?

If the Army goes to war against a peer it will still drive in the Humvee rather than the newer JLTV. We still have lots of HMMWVs in the arsenal in contrast to the new JLTV. And even when the Army has all the JLTVs is wants, there will be a lot of Humvees in the force. This is viewed as a problem given the problems the Humvee had surviving in Iraq. But in Iraq we faced a pretty unique situation where the war was fought on the roads a lot because the enemy relied on IEDs as their main weapon. Also, a war against a peer will not face anywhere near that kind of insurgent/terrorist IED threat behind the forward troops. That's what the Humvee was designed for, recall. Although given the threat near the front posed by persistent drone surveillance and precision fires, I'd only want the Humvees on bases or well behind the lines out of artillery range.

Did the Russians poison an arms dealer in Bulgaria? 

Is speculation really "rampant" that America might invade Venezuela to overthrow Maduro? Because I don't see that happening. Some nutjob content to abuse his own people seems way down on the list of things to do behind the jihadis, Russia, and China, no? If we've left Cuba alone, why would we expend such effort on Venezuela? And even if Hezbollah is deep in Venezuela, Israel might take care of that at the source. Which would work better because Hezbollah is in other parts of South America, too. I could see limited American forces sent to help facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid should the Maduro government collapse or fall from internal opposition. But not an invasion.

I see Maduro could do plugs for those "buy gold in these troubling times" commercials. But do you get a free safe with purchase? Strategypage looks at what"one of the most corrupt, ineffective, lawless and clueless governments in the world" faces, which explains why the usual suspects of China, Russia, and Cuba see little hope of (or profit in) helping their little friend.

Australia selected a French bidder to build their new submarine fleet (12). I thought Australia should have selected the Japanese sub since Japan no doubt has more experience in the local conditions. But perhaps Australia also wants to pull France into Asia to counter China with the purchase. Japan is already in good shape on that issue; and Germany can barely operate in the Baltic Sea let alone the South China Sea, so what would be the geopolitical point of selecting Germany as the source?

"Europe" as a political entity does not exist. Thank God for that. Honestly, I don't worry that the EU won't (or can't as the author seems to argue) gain the powers that supplant nation--I worry the EU will get the "ever closer union" with no defined end point they haven't been shy about saying they want. And the author--rightly I think--says that we can hardly walk away from Europe despite any frustration with Europe's failure to maintain adequate military power.

Russia announced plans for new missiles in the aftermath of the coming death of the INF treaty. Okay. Like I said before, I'm not saying there won't be a nuclear arms race after INF. I'm just saying that broke Russia won't be in it. And indeed, in contrast to prior boasting, Russia explicitly said they won't be drawn into an arms race. Which is wise unless Russia wants to get even smaller.

Yes, maybe Germany should look to the future better Germany it wants to be by standing solidly with Israel rather than continually look back to their past in fear they could return to that horrific time. Because seriously, if the Germans are right that they are just a deep recession away from setting up death camps, maybe we really should just pull out and nuke the site from orbit as the only way to be sure.

The European Union's shabby treatment of Britain as it tries to leave with a mutually agreeable divorce isn't about Britain anymore, I think, but about making the process the punishment to discourage anyone else from leaving. Tip to Instapundit.

The American prosecution of  Maria Butina as a Russian spy colluding with the Trump campaign is collapsing. All our counterintelligence apparatus has done with this political prosecution on trumped up charges is to justify Chinese, Russian, or Iranian political prosecutions of Americans who fall within their grasp. Given that those thug states are far better at political prosecutions (with police and judicial bodies fully on board the need to railroad the charged victim), "we" should never have opened up this field of battle.

Remember when social media was viewed as a magical tool to bring down tyrants? Well, Twitter and Facebook have signed up with Team Tyranny in Pakistan. Disgraceful. But I'm sure the efforts of those social media giants to police "fake news" or "hate speech" here in America will work much better than in Pakistan where the rulers decided that they hated news they deemed fake, and social media giants went meekly along with the demands.

Huh, is Woke Admiral a new rank in the Navy?

I'm not sure what a national debate in France will do given that it seems like the Macron v. Yellow Jacket Fight is one to the figurative death.

Maybe anti-war advocates should look to Germany as Exhibit A for a country where our intervention to destroy a tyrant and our long nation-building effort has failed to create a real ally. Seriously, Iraq is a better ally than modern Germany is. And if the European Union "ever closer union" imperial project works, Germany may find they can control Europe more effectively with cheese regulations and budget rules than with panzers.

Wow, and just when the Green Leap Forward (aka the New Green Deal) promised to funnels massive amounts of other people's money into projects like that. Oh ye of little faith.

Oh, and I can hardly wait for the GLF advocates to explain to Hindu Indians that they have to slaughter their sacred farting cows. For the planet, or whatever.

The XBox goes to war. The controllers or those very similar have spread throughout the military. As I noted during the Iraq War about how video gaming made remote weapon stations easy for our troops to master, the modern situation gives troops who gamed a lot an advantage in using military systems (well, as long as that edge didn't make them couch potatoes unable to handle the physical challenges). It's like they trained on the equipment for a decade before enlisting. This is kind of like the advantage private cars gave our troops in World War II with a motorized Army.  Of course, our World War II advantage was unique but now every advanced nation has young people who focus on gaming.

Russia used their GPS jammers during the Trident Juncture military exercises that NATO held along with Sweden and Finland. The jamming affected civilians, too. The Russians denied the accusations but nobody believes them. And the Arctic states involved are more convinced they need to band together against Russia. I guess nobody will call this "hybrid electronic warfare" because despite attacking and then denying they attacked, nobody in the West is going along with the Russian lie. You need all three elements to be "hybrid."

It certainly makes sense that our Navy has to get a good deal of attention with a new focus on peer competition given that China is the rising threat and their threat is thus far mainly an aero-naval threat to our western Pacific littoral interests. But declaring a "maritime strategy" as America's approach would be a mistake that simplifies China's military problems and doesn't even address Russia's primary land threat to NATO's frontiers. Don't forget, as I addressed in Military Review, the land domain. I know the Navy likes to say that 70% (or is it 80%) of people live within a short distance from the sea. But I like to add that 100% of those people live on the land. It is distressing that the INDOPACOM commander's intent to strengthen America's military across from China and not just be Korean peninsula focused doesn't seem to consider a significant Army role in its core capabilities of wide-area land operations.

It seems like the best compromise on the border barrier issue able to get left and right united would be to build a high-speed elevated light rail line from the Pacific to the Gulf of Mexico right along the border with Mexico.  I'm joking, but deep down I fear that might actually occur to somebody and catch on. More seriously, I don't like declaring an "emergency" to do this but I didn't like the "pen and phone" executive action from the previous administration. But declaring an emergency is fairly routine. As I've mentioned before, we should really be horrified about what is perfectly legal for the executive--of any party--to do.

Moslem rebels with new autonomy in the southern Philippines now "must learn to govern." Must? Why? Did Hamas learn to govern when it gained control of Gaza? Did ISIL learn to govern when it grabbed a caliphate? Why must Islamist nutballs learn to govern? Maybe if the Moslems are more secessionist than nutbally they will learn to govern, but there is no "must" about it. I certainly hope that is how it works out, of course. And we should certainly be ready to help the people who want to govern the autonomous region keep the jihadi types suppressed.

Will the European Union, with the backing of America plus new support from France (?!) and over the objections of Germany (thanks Germany!), halt the Russian project of bypassing Ukraine with energy pipelines going directly to Western Europe to allow Russia to freeze Ukrainians in the winter without causing discomfort in Germany? I guess the EU might not be totally worthless. If it follows through, of course.

Hey! I found out about a border "wall" that isn't immoral! Will wonders never cease? Tip to Instapundit.

Huh, is our health care insurance system actually fairly acceptable now after Republicans got to see what was in it after Democrats passed it, and allow more consumer choice while keeping the option of subsidies to those who can't afford insurance (whether from pre-existing conditions or not); and even allowing states to be as big government as they can afford if they choose? Sound plausible. I've never been against the idea of helping people who can't afford health insurance get some form of it to guard against catastrophic health problems. Screwing over the rest of the health insurance consumer base just wasn't my idea of good policy--for individuals or the health care system that insurance pays for.

I was astounded when I heard people take the obvious joke as a serious indicator of anti-science ignorance. Lighten up Francis.

Ah, trained journalists. That annoyed me then and it annoys me now. Are they incapable of learning?

While I see no reason to invade Venezuela to overthrow Maduro (not that it wouldn't be morally defensible, but we are kind of busy elsewhere), the two journalists (and two editors!) who wrote this story are absolutely wrong about this: "Under the U.S. Constitution, Congress has to approve foreign military action." No, Congress has the exclusive power to declare war. The authority to carry out foreign military action is way more nuanced than that simplistic description. Congress does indeed have to approve military action, but Congressional approval is not required prior to military action, and approval can take many forms. Ah, trained journalists (and editors).

Moldova continues to flirt with national suicide despite the example of Russian-controlled Transnistria carved out of its territory during the collapse of the USSR.  Moldovans could choose to join the West but somehow they can't seem to embrace that chance.

Cuba is trying to help Maduro rally Venezuelans against a fake foreign threat--America. We deny Cuba's charge, although it would be smart if we did move special forces within range--to make good on our pledge to protect our diplomats there and not to stage some movie-level regime change with a dozen really tough guys. I'm just relieved Maduro isn't going after a foreign "threat" he might be able to take on. But I think it is way too late for Maduro to rally his people around a foreign threat.

The United States is leading a Western resurgence in efforts to maintain technological superiority over Russian and Chinese advances. Good. Although it would be nice to tighten up our counter-intelligence efforts so we don't end up doing their research for them.

From the beginning I said that the idea that Trump colluded with Russia to win the White House was ridiculous. Russia did what it always did by stirring up divisions in America (and elsewhere, of course). This is something Russia (and the USSR before it) does routinely. But suddenly Democrats noticed it so it was new to them (and were horrified to see the effort directed at them rather than at Republicans). And boy did the minuscule Russian effort work. Divisions? Check. We did it to ourselves, people. To me it was obvious that Russia was, in addition to the stoking-division angle, trying to damage the expected winner Clinton (Russians could read our polling data as well as I could) for reasons that had nothing to do with Trump. But perhaps what should really be shocking is how easily our counter-intelligence people sincerely believed that Russia was behind the Trump presidency. Are they that ignorant? Did partisan media hysteria sway them? Even if we set aside the shocking indications that leadership in the FBI attempted a soft "25th amendment" coup like we are some banana republic because they truly believed Trump might be a Russian pawn, can we count on the FBI to battle threats to America in the shadows when we see how they think and how they acted on that ridiculous belief?

ISIL remains active in Egypt's Sinai peninsula.  Isolating the terrorists from Gaza helps reduce the level of threat. Although not enough to prevent 200 from massing to raid an Egyptian checkpoint. And if Israel had used "non-lethal" gas in a tunnel the way Egypt did at the Gaza border--which resulted in the deaths of two Palestinians in the tunnel--can you imagine the global outrage? Until I read this in that Strategypage post I hadn't heard of the incident. But it fits with the general practice of accusing Israel of "blockading" Gaza while ignoring that Egypt also allows land access to Gaza--except when it doesn't.

Just a reminder that Venezuela interim President Juan Guaidó is a socialist. One just hopes he isn't an idiot, corrupt, and vicious socialist the way Maduro is and Hugo Chavez was. Baby steps, people. Baby steps.

I've shaken my head in wonder at the dysfunctional Indian military procurement bureaucracy. But boy did our KC-135 replacement project give India's record of failure a run for its money. Of course, the cluster continues. I mean, what's the rush, eh?

Computers could generate a news story with nothing more than a headline to guide it. As long as you don't care if the article is factually correct (tip to Instapundit). Big deal. We already know that opinion pieces can be written that way.

So ... Democrats believe Trump is building a dictatorship. And they think it would be a good idea to declare an emergency to battle climate change. With a wide-ranging, executive-strengthening approach such as the Green Leap Forward (aka the Green New Deal). Which Trump would control. Got it. Democrats now hate the executive power they once loved. And yes, many Republicans approve of it now after opposing it then--but others still don't like that form of executive overreach.  I lean strongly toward the latter view that cringes at the expansion of federal power. But I recognize that until it is done to them, Democrats have no incentive to curtail the acceptance of executive encroachment on legislative powers. As I've said, the most horrifying feature of our federal government is what is perfectly legal for the executive to do.

Japan scrambled jets to watch Russian "nuclear-capable" bombers exercising over the Sea of Japan. Given the sorry overall state of Russia's military, I'm shocked the bombers were "flight-capable."

With the war on (Islamic) terrorism, we at least have the choice of emphasizing fighting them "over there" or "here" at home. The battle against socialism sadly has become a battle to be one over here. Which is sad. I enlisted because I believe socialism is evil and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics had to be resisted. And here we are with more Americans claiming socialism is about freaking "caring." So we have to beat that threat "here." Part of beating the threat here must be in explaining what socialism is and is not, because as I've said I think a lot of Americans claiming to be "democratic socialists" just mean they identify as really liberal. They like the welfare state. Yet the welfare state isn't the same as socialism. There are problems with a welfare state gone too far. But at least it isn't--when properly walled off from our economic and political system--the death of free market capitalism which has propelled the retreat of poverty the way socialism is. And socialism will walk in with that confusion very easily.

Oh goodie, Merkel defends close economic ties with Russia. But even if their relationship grows into some sort of pact, it won't guarantee Russian non-aggression. Because even with Russia as paranoid as it is, I find it hard to believe that with the sorry state of Germany's military that Russia sees Germany as a threat rather than a potential victim to be kept weak with soothing talk and trade deals.

The collapse of the Amazon headquarters deal in New York City under pressure from the progressive base of the Democratic party highlights the bizarre reality that 1% tech giants sided with the people on the left who really, really hate them with all their hearts. It's time the tech giants realized they effed up, they trusted the left. Sadly for them, they alienated the right in the process.

The US is promoting economic ties with NATO member Iceland, which has a valuable position for Arctic issues and for safeguarding North Atlantic sea lines of communication between North America and  NATO Europe from the lingering (but reduced) Russian submarine threat.

The head of CENTCOM thinks the United States should continue aiding our allies in eastern Syria even after we pull our troops out. Yes, even if you discount the moral issue of abandoning an ally it is important to shield Iraq from hostile forces that could have a sanctuary in eastern Syria. Assad of course wants us to abandon those people--or at least make those people believe we will abandon them.

French people are tiring of the "yellow jacket" (or "yellow vest") protests. No wonder. They started as a protest against a specific tax and morphed into a general resistance to Macron that made it a figurative fight to the death (as I noted bfore). So now Macron is winning. And the ability to exploit real or imagined (or planted) bigotry within the protests will help Macron win.

I had a fun afternoon with my daughter Lamb, downtown and on campus. We had lunch and a wide-ranging foray walking around despite the cold weather. I am happy that despite her advanced age that it isn't a social kiss of death to have an outing with her dad. We tried a new taco place and it was quite good. But in a "I'm so screwed" sort of way (but perhaps I've shared too much), while we were visiting one place of business I actually recognized a woman (she didn't see me) I've seen on an online dating site. She seems nice from her profile. But this was a daughter-dad event and I had to suppress an urge to introduce myself with this unexpected opportunity. Oh well. It was still a great afternoon.

The Army study of the Iraq War (volumes one and two) recounts the failure of a deep strike helicopter mission during the invasion. At the time I wondered if it spelled the end of that kind of mission. Although since then it seems like the Army is trying to adapt to the factors that led to failure. But in the end it seems like the Army is trying to carry out a mission with its own assets that is something the Air Force should do for the Army. That speaks perhaps to the trust that the Army has that the Air Force has real interest in providing that kind of timely support.

Normal debugging of new technology or epic procurement fail?

Five senators wrote a letter opposing the purchase of the F-15X instead of buying F-35s. But I didn't think this was a matter of substitution as much as it is a matter of maintaining numbers of fighters that F-35 buys can't handle. And really, if the Air Force buys the F-15X, wouldn't that provide a face-saving way of denying problematic Turkey's purchase of F-35s by substituting the F-15X--which the U.S. Air Force would be buying--so we don't worry about the most advanced plane we have in Erdogan's hands?

This is not an essay on how to achieve peace in Afghanistan. It is an essay about how if the Taliban are tired of war, too, then we could leave and support the Afghan government unlike our abandonment of South Vietnam. If the Taliban are tired of war and if we don't abandon Afghanistan like we walked away from South Vietnam leading to their downfall in 1975 (Or as we walked away from Iraq leading to their defeat in 2014), that would truly be great. But if the Taliban aren't tired of war despite their even heavier casualty rates and if we aren't prepared to continue supporting the fragile government, then we might be just getting a pretend peace that paves the way for a Taliban victory exactly the way we got in South Vietnam and Iraq (which we did reverse with Iraq War 2.0; and we do seem to be working to prevent Iraq War 3.0).

The multinational Standing NATO Maritime Group Two exercised with other NATO forces in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. As I've said, Russia's renewed naval presence in the eastern Mediterranean just gives NATO states with Mediterranean fleets something to do in wartime. So I have no problem if Russia spends scarce money on ships and planes to run around down there instead of on forces that can threaten NATO in the Baltic Sea region.

Will Maduro block Venezuelans from bringing in foreign humanitarian aid flown into Colombia?