Monday, February 25, 2019

At the Intersection of the Monroe Doctrine and Responsibility to Protect?

The last thing that works in a socialist state is always the security apparatus. Does this justify intervention?

Being hungry and sick is a crime against the Venezuelan state now:

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro faced growing regional pressure on Sunday after his troops repelled foreign aid convoys, with the United States threatening new sanctions and Brazil urging allies to join a “liberation effort”.

Violent clashes with security forces over the opposition’s U.S.-backed attempt on Saturday to bring aid into the economically devastated country left almost 300 wounded and at least three protesters dead near the Brazilian border. ...

The Venezuelan Observatory of Violence, a local crime monitoring group, said it had confirmed three deaths on Saturday, all in Santa Elena, and at least 295 injured across the country.

Would Brazil stage a military intervention citing the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) doctrine used to justify the 2011 NATO war against Khadaffi's Libya?

Brazil could move forces across the border in the south to establish a humanitarian access zone inside Venezuela so aid can enter Venezuela despite the forceful opposition to aid by the Maduro government.

But that is far from the population centers so would not make sense in isolation. 

If the talk of American military intervention is real, it would be part of a regional coalition that would have Brazil in the lead moving from the south and perhaps Colombia involved from the west.

If that happened, would 5,000 American troops (as Bolton famously revealed on his note pad) occupy a Venezuelan port and airport to push in humanitarian aid from the north, too? Five thousand troops would essentially be a brigade or regimental combat team.

And then would American aircraft airlift Brazilian troops to the north to take the lead from our troops that establish a perimeter?

Russia and China continue to diplomatically back Maduro.

Also, if we do this Kim Jong-un's eyes might bug out a bit as he is out of town in Vietnam for a nuclear summit.

Sheer speculation, of course.

UPDATE: And remember no good deed goes unpunished.

UPDATE: Huh:

The US military has flown an increased number of reconnaissance flights in international airspace off the coast of Venezuela during the last several days to gather classified intelligence about the embattled government of President Nicholas Maduro, according to two US defense officials.

Well, more information is good if we are deciding what to do.

UPDATE: Strategypage notes that Russian transport planes are oddly sitting on the ground at Caribbean airports, apparently in case they are needed to fly Maduro and his closest cronies out of Venezuela.

Maybe these guys, who I noted in the February 24th data dump, were part of the Russian security force to snatch Maduro out of a collapsing Venezuela.

UPDATE: It is interesting that Guaido is meeting with the Brazilian president, no?

UPDATE: Well of course they did:

The proposed US text [of a UN Security Council resolution] -- which called for new presidential elections in Venezuela and unimpeded deliveries of humanitarian aid -- won the required nine votes at the 15-member council, but Moscow and Beijing joined forces to block it.

Actually I'm surprised both countries blocked it. I'd have fully expected just one to do the deed so the other can look a bit better in the big picture record like a good cop/bad cop routine.