Embers of armed resistance to Iran's nutball regime clearly exist after 40 years of mullah nutball rule.
Will there be a problem with a "green" AI system going up against a "veteran" AI system?
It seems to be that you program the way you fight because you'll fight the way you program. And train, train, train. Good point, though.
NATO Europe's readiness is pretty bad. As I've noted, my hope is that potential enemies are worse. And as I've also noted, bad readiness doesn't mean units can't be sent into combat. But it does mean they will do worse in battle and even if they win will suffer more casualties.
Israel will build a "fence" along their entire border with Gaza. That "fence" will be "a galvanized steel barrier six meters (20 feet) high[.]" That's a fence? Sign us up. Heavens, haven't the Israelis heard that border barriers are immoral and ineffective? Hopefully a better "fence" will reduce the opportunities for Hamas to stage human wave assaults with human shields on the border to shield armed fighters trying to breach the barrier as Hamas has been doing for much of last year through this year. This will save lives on both sides of the border, really, if the tactic won't work against the new fence.
The Army's basic training isn't providing disciplined proto-soldiers for its units? What happened since I went through it? Maybe we should make basic training more like that.
The Army is thinking about a Bradley replacement that will be "optionally manned." That leaves the door open for my suggestion (in Infantry magazine) for a partially manned vehicle that uses reach-back for the squad under certain circumstances to get the infantry out of the line of fire before they are needed for dismounted close combat.
This article notes that everything Russia does is called an element of "hybrid warfare" because there is no accepted definition (and Russia's approach is really a continuation of past approaches, the author writes, rather than something new). Let me put forth my suggestion: Over-analyzing Russia's deception causes the West to miss the point that "hybrid warfare" is very simple: Russia invades a country; Russia denies it has invaded a country; and the West goes along with Russian denials.
Democracy may indeed die in darkness. But being inaccurate and obviously biased is no way to shine a light on issues. I just don't trust these people to know the difference between a banana and an apple.
The Navy is rethinking its goal of 355 ships. I hope the "rethink" doesn't involve expanding the definition of what ships are counted as part of the fleet.
The Afghan state remains weak. Of course, I don't think we should focus on the formal but largely mythical central state for strengthening resistance to the Taliban.
Yes, it is a pity that Trump isn't as respectful of other leaders the way the nuanced and sophisticated European leaders are.
The US will send humanitarian aid to countries bordering Venezuela at the invitation of Guiado, who will ask the Venezuelan military to let it in despite Maduro's rejection of aid. As I noted about the Bolton "5,000 troops to Colombia" news, any troops we send would be for the purpose of pushing humanitarian aid into Venezuela. But no worries, American fans of Maduro's bold socialist revolution, Venezuelan border defenses are halting the
The Pentagon warns that ISIL could regain its territory in eastern Syria in 6-12 months without continued pressure. As I've said, when you face an enemy with fanatical followers seemingly indifferent to defeat or persuasion, the only option left is to kill them.
Building an allied military for a state that can't sustain it is a problem. If the state of an ally can't sustain the military we design for them, we need to be willing to stay a long time to support that military. The classic example is the South Vietnamese military that could not fight as it was designed to fight when Congress cut off aid and American air support. But really, look at the NATO military effort against revolution-wracked Libya in 2011 for allies who can't fight for long without our help. If we can't stay to care for that military stranger in a strange land to keep it effective, we need to design a local military that can be sustained by the state that exists. And as I drone on about, work to support rule of law as a key component to enabling a better state and society.
The Army study of the Iraq War (volumes one and two) says that the military underestimated the sectarian divisions in Iraq before the invasion. But really, the sectarian killing didn't really take off until summer 2016 after the bombing of the Samarra Shia Golden Mosque early in that year. And it took a lot of outside support from Iran and Syria supporting Sunni Arab jihadis and Shia Arab death squads to get that rolling. All things considered, I think Iraq was surprisingly resistant to sectarian war despite the real sectarian divisions in their society, heightened by Saddam's pre-war policies.
There are hints of Venezuelan security force loyalty wavering in the face of large-scale protests against Maduro. But is it the tip of the iceberg and hint of things to come, or mere blips in the ranks protecting Maduro?
Taiwan's president took a shot at China by extolling Taiwan's democracy and hoping Chinese all over the world could experience it. Well, I have said that when other options to defend Taiwan fail, going on offense might be the only viable option.
French aircraft struck 40 vehicles filled with armed men who entered Chad from Libya. This was done in cooperation with Chad, which swept up 250 of the rebels after the strike.
Boko Haram jihadis slaughtered about 60 people in a recent particularly devastating attack. Nigeria clearly needs to get back to killing jihadis. But poor Nigerian troop morale (see "massive" corruption) is hurting a lot.
Strategypage looks at the "realistically rigged" election in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The people prefer a peaceful transition to not-Kabila than an honestly reported election. As an aside, Portuguese and Nepali peacekeepers are in combat in the Central African Republic.
The Air Force has reacted well to start to fix the problems with the DAB "air base in a box" concept because the good idea was unraveling without leadership attention. I mentioned the concept and problems last month.
It occurs to me that when fighting in a city, we want civilians out of the way. Well, duh. What I mean to say is that given that civilians will attempt to flee when the combat gets heavy, shouldn't we use a lot of flash-bang artillery rounds amidst the few precision rounds targeting enemy forces? We use precision to avoid civilian deaths. But civilians know that and so have less reason to leave. If we make lots of non-casualty causing noise and light simulating massed artillery fire, couldn't we encourage civilians to leave without the deaths of actual bombardment? Just a random thought.
In a display of utter contempt for the Europeans after the Europeans designed a financial mechanism to help Iran get around American sanctions, Iran has dismissed European criticism of Iran's ballistic missile program.
China put out a Chinese New Year video message to Taiwan, complete with images of Chinese military power, telling the Taiwanese that they should rejoin China. The Taiwanese rejected the threat. But what about the message to mainland Chinese? Doesn't this video with its implicit military threat tell the mainland Chinese that the Taiwanese people in fact have no interest in being ruled by Peking?
A tour of China-related issues from Strategypage. Interestingly enough, China says it will work with whoever governs Venezuela and is not in Maduro's corner.
It is not our fault we are in an "endless war" against jihadis. What is endless is the jihadi appetite for murdering people at as high a rate as their capabilities and opportunities allow. If we are unhappy with how long this war is taking, perhaps we need to kill jihadis at a higher rate, which will strengthen the forces of reason in the Islamic Civil War over who gets to define Islam. And remember, as I've long warned, trying to end the war unilaterally and rely on our defenses just puts us on a road to losing more and more civil liberties as we ratchet up controls after any successful terror attack at home.
Apparently the irony of Poland escaping the clutches of the USSR more easily than Britain is escaping the entangling grip of the EU is lost on this man.
North Macedonia is officially on the path to joining NATO.
One thing I like in the Army study on the Iraq War (volumes one and two) is that the Army notes that Saddam was determined to reconstitute his WMD capabilities. Saddam maintained the infrastructure for WMD and missiles in a warm standby mode for the day when international sanctions would falter and he'd be free to resume research and production. The idea that Saddam's WMD threat was a "lie" is itself a twisting of reality.
Somehow despite the words spoken, people on the left continue to hear dog whistles for hate. If you hear the dog whistle, you're the dog.
Will the liberals (conservatives are a different issue) saying America lost the Afghanistan War and should get out admit that Obama's two escalations were pointless? Remember that I was against his surges (although as long as we were going to do it, I looked at what could be done) because I figured that the real problem was in Pakistan and beyond our reach under likely circumstances. I was content to prevent Afghanistan from being a terrorist sanctuary using a smaller force level to help build up local armed power to prevent the Taliban from regaining power and keeping al Qaeda out. Which is what we are doing now. Although it is possible we couldn't have gotten to this point without the surge, the timing and scope of the surges sure seemed driven by the American presidential election cycle.
I'm not hopeful, but it would be nice if true. I have serious doubts that diplomacy can get North Korea to voluntarily give up nuclear weapons--which is why a diplomatic agreement wasn't included in my North Korea options post--but if Trump can pull it off I'll certainly give him bigly credit. Right now I'm worried diplomacy is getting North Korea through a window of vulnerability when we could launch a strike with a good hope of destroying North Korea's weapons and infrastructure. I suppose I should be encouraged that Trump walked away from a fake Iran nuclear deal, but I still worry we might get a North Korea nuclear agreement as fake as the Iran agreement was. Although keep in mind that if our pressure works to undermine mullah rule in Iran, North Korea's only real potential customer for nuclear weapons is taken out of the showroom, eh?
Despite massive Chinese cyber-spying, the old-fashioned "thousand grains of sand" approach is still a part of their espionage effort.
I see that the Palestinians have made an in-kind contribution to Netanyahu's reelection campaign.
WTF? You can't say that Democrats don't have this coming given the standards they claim to have. But I can't manage to laugh at this episode of learning about the perils of throwing stones in a glass house given the very real pain this brings to African Americans who must face what their "allies" have done in the past. Are we at the stage when Nina Burleigh promises to paint on blackface for any politician who keeps abortion safe and legal into the 4th trimester? Perhaps Democrats could have that national conversation about race they keep asking for--among themselves--before they assume the rest of us are as bad as they are.
Thanks Germany!
Russia offers to
As long as we're all coming clean about costumes, I once went to a Halloween party at my famously druggie dorm dressed as a DEA agent.
It is certainly a credible claim to say China threatens the religious liberties of millions given that China already denies the other liberties to a billion.
One of the most frustrating thing about the Democratic "Blackfacegate" after years of Democrats wielding the accusation of racism against Republicans, is that now that prominent Democrats are shown to be less than diversity-welcoming the problem is suddenly an American problem. No, this is a Democratic problem. Racism is a horrible thing and an awful charge to make without evidence. So this Virginia development couldn't happen to a nicer group of people.
At this point, I think Democrats should focus on the argument that Trump is so incompetent that he can't even be a credible Hitler. Tip to Instapundit.
Army units as small as squads could have their own "air force."
I suppose the real question is when China will declare the island a "core" interest part of historic China and build a military base on it.
Remember, capitalism doesn't cause greed. People cause greed. Tell me there is any alternate system that doesn't have wealthy and poor people. Although remember that there is a difference between free enterprise capitalism that we want and crony capitalism that represents an alliance between government and big business that is little better than actual socialism.
Hey! An actual immoral border barrier. The barrier wouldn't slow down troops in an actual invasion. But it will stop humanitarian aid convoys.
Apparently anything America does or doesn't do anywhere in the world is a reason for jihadis to kill people completely unrelated to America's action or inaction. Anywhere. Ah, nuance.
Another reason I don't trust our media to explain anything to me. A slight miss by a Republican is called false while Democrats get wider margins of error. Also, correct facts by Republicans can be shown false with context; while false facts by Democrats can be shown true with context. Every time. Tip to Instapundit.
There are still jihadis in the Philippines and ISIL is trying to expand its presence. American forces in small numbers are assisting the Filipino government fight them. Recall that an early but little-covered campaign right after 9/11 was in the Philippines to defeat al Qaeda in the Philippines. Our enemies are persistent.
At the intersection of lust and corruption lies opportunity. Either alone is useful, of course.
The Green Leap Forward. I'm just relieved they put it--however briefly--on the record. And this assessment of the gormless GLF is obviously true (tip to Instapundit). Collecting carbon dioxide is just phase one (although the PowerPoint presentation was taken down, by sources grabbed it first):
I haven't seen such a comprehensive (that is, universally compelled by the power of the state) mobilization to mold society in a new direction since the late 1970s. Although you should remember that this AOC GLF proposal isn't a bill to be introduced and debated. It is essentially a no-research essay. To be fair, the taken-down FAQ may not be the final version intended for release. But it does show where their heads are at even if details are not (currently) on the table.
This analysis contending that the US also violated the INF treaty with Russia seems to rely on two things: that the Obama administration screwed up by replacing the Bush system planned in eastern NATO with the Aegis Ashore plan; and that if we put cruise missiles in the Aegis Ashore facilities then it would violate the treaty. So if we do something that violates the treaty then we'd be in violation of the treaty? You've got to be kidding me. Those people are nuts and simply doing Russia's propaganda work for them.
While Merkel has a point, as the leader of an economic power that did virtually nothing to fight ISIL (or any jihadi group) she has zero authority to make it. Also, she didn't "contradict" the president. He merely spoke of the defeat of the ISIL territorial caliphate and not the elimination of ISIL as a terror group. Say, will Germany offer troops on the ground in the region to keep our foot on their jihadi necks by continuing to hunt and kill jihadis?
Oh those wacky but sophisticated and nuanced Europeans! Although seriously, try to act like treaty allies, eh? Background on the France-Italy spat. In the Cold War, Britain and Iceland had their tense "Cod War." Could we call this current spat the "Clod War?" And say, is there any Italy-Yellow Jacket collusion?
This Brazilian legislator is stirring ... controversy ... for her cleavage:
Aren't these critics who are staring directly into the sun failing to notice her friggin' Nazi salute? (I kid, but it has all the basis in reality needed for a good Twitter mob to light their figurative torches over.) Really, you should just get a sense and look away.
And damn the Left to Hell for promoting racial and ethnic identity politics so successfully over the decades that there is a danger that white people will join them in this tribal way of thinking since the way of thinking can't apparently be beaten. I do not think of myself as part of the white tribe. Nor do I want to. I've been clear that anybody can become an American. I care not one whit what color or religion assimilated Americans are. Luckily, so far there are few white people signing up for that white tribe agenda despite the claims of the Left. But if that ever develops, we have our Left to "thank" for that monstrous way of categorizing--and judging--people.
American forces will be out of eastern Syria by the end of April. We'll see who fills the vacuum. I hope for the best.
SOUTHCOM says it is prepared to protect American diplomatic facilities in Venezuela.
Basically, our air strikes in Somalia are just mowing the jihadi grass. To really win, effective governance has to be established in the territory of formal Somalia. Personally I'd let regions that manage to establish effective governance get formal recognition. I think the hope that legal Somalia can get its act together has been dashed by the experience of the last quarter century of efforts to do that. Mind you, mowing the grass is regrettably necessary despite the failure to win the war by building a state capable of controlling the jihadis without our military effort.
Will the party that demonizes billionaires for controlling our government do exactly what a billionaire demands they do?
Still, they care a lot. As they tell us endlessly.
Finland discovers that a free basic income didn't improve employment by giving recipients the freedom to do what they want--but the recipients sure did like it a lot. Ah, the insights social science gives us. Although to be fair, I have been open to seeing if it could possibly work. This one didn't. Although I fear that even a low basic income is just the opening bid for the government paying the benefit to increase the payments (that taxpayers fund) to ensure the recipients vote for the political party promising the highest benefits.
The East Africa/Indian Ocean slave trade went on a lot longer than the West Africa/Atlantic slave trade, and it is an underlying cause of the problems Kenya has with jihadi terrorism.
The B-1 will be retired while the much older B-52 continues to roll along. Does this mean that B-1 air frames could be available to experiment with as air-to-air "arsenal planes" (the AABONE, as I called it)?
The Japanese Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade (ARDB) officially has its initial capability to recapture territory--like in the East China Sea.
The Navy's reach has been extended with a cruise missile (JSOW-ER) that can fit inside the F-35C.
Is the United States about to lead a more active (rather than reactive) allied effort to counter China's "grey zone" tactics in the South China Sea, tactics that seek to use China's coast guard and a naval militia to intimidate other countries from resisting China's claims to the South China Sea?
Hahahahahaha!!!! Tip to Instapundit. Strange days indeed when Speaker Pelosi is apparently a force for reason in the Democratic House caucus.
Can Guyana escape the curse of striking it rich with oil, which risks just enriching the lucky elites, increasing corruption, and leaving the rest of the population worse off than before? Or at best just wards of the all-powerful state that kills the ability of the people to do anything but cash the government checks? It seems like Guyana might want to emulate what Alaska did with their oil find. Although maybe don't include the CBR. And keep in mind that if viewed as an experiment of a basic income, it did no better than Finland's experiment did in promoting employment. Still, Alaska seems to have avoided killing initiative in their people the way it could have with a nanny-state approach rather than a revenue-sharing approach.
The Army study on the Iraq War (volumes one and two) states that Saddam wrongly expected an American invasion to include a Jordan front. This isn't new information. While we did have a special forces effort out of Jordan backed by American National Guard battalions to garrison captured bases, we never did have a major axis of advance from there. As the invasion got closer, I totally expected a heavy division and an armored cavalry regiment to be the main thrust linking up with 3rd Infantry (heavy) coming north out of Kuwait, making for a complete heavy corps. I completely whiffed on that notion.
Is it true that America is in contact with Venezuelan officers to get them to abandon Maduro? Or is the news merely psychological warfare to make Maduro paranoid enough to start going after suspect officers regardless of loyalty, which will cause otherwise loyal officers to abandon Maduro from fear of Maduro's wrath?
I think the French "yellow jacket" protests that continue to take place have become a figurative fight to the death. Either Macron surrenders or the protesters retreat in defeat. I don't know what will satisfy those protesters short of Macron resigning his office.
People who don't know that "warship" is not a synonym for "battleship." Hiei was not the first Japanese warship to be sunk in World War II. It was the first battleship (although I've always thought of the class as battlecruisers) to be sunk in the war. Remember, a battleship is a specific type of warship.
The US appears to be readying a UN Security Council resolution calling on Venezuela to hold a new presidential election. Yes, Russia will veto it. But we should make Russia openly declare their support for the inept monster Maduro.
The US halted some security assistance to Cameroon in the fight against jihadis over "gross human rights violations" by security forces. France continues their role. Ah, sophisticated nuance. This highlights the problem of fighting truly awful actors (jihadis in this case) with imperfect allies. How much do we put up with to deal with the worse threat? And sadly the "lesser evil" can exploit their relative goodness with the big power actors (France, more successfully in this case).
A reminder that when you insist the government "do something" about a problem it sometimes makes the problem much worse. And Congress exploits the fear that Congress will do "something" (tip to Instapundit). That's a feature and not a bug. And you wonder why I think it is futile to"fix" Washington, D.C.? Better to shrink Washington's power over so much of our lives.
"Any time your best thinking tells you that the best solution to a social problem is the elimination of a class of people, it’s time to have another cup of coffee and think a little harder." Yeah, there's no way that kind of thinking could get out of hand.
Morocco is restoring their military draft. That's odd, I wonder why?
Fortunately (?) I am not motivated by glory or hatred. So to those who are, leave me out of your mental health issues.
The United States and South Korea agreed on how much South Korea will pay to subsidize American troops in South Korea. Good. We should both want our troops to remain there. And South Korea is no longer the poor country that can't help out financially on top of the good military they've built.
Maduro is opening bank accounts for their oil revenue in Russia to protect their money. I hate to point this out to the geniuses in Caracas, but who will protect the oil revenue from Putin?
