Sunday, February 24, 2019

Weekend Data Dump

When Trump was elected in 2016, I was thrilled that Trump unexpectedly won over the thoroughly corrupt Clinton. But I wondered--and telegraphed my worry before the election--how long my elation of avoiding that train wreck would last given that I have a long history of disliking Trump (who was long a liberal and a jerk). Amazingly, the Democrats have behaved so much worse than Trump--in sharp contrast to my behavior after two (2008 and 2012) Obama wins--that my lingering relief that Clinton is not president is transitioning to thinking Trump will be better than any of the Democrats likely to emerge from the progressive knife fight primary system. Trump is a jerk. And I have never bought the idea that he is playing 3D chess above our ability to appreciate. But he remains a better alternative than the Democrats are likely to offer. Amazing. I don't understand the current Trump worship by his fervent backers any more than I could understand the Obama worship by his supporters (amplified by the media that worshiped him, too). But more and more I think Democrats will drive enough people like me who think Trump is a jerk--but at least not a practicing liberal for the moment--into pulling the lever for him in a successful 2020 reelection bid in what will become a textbook case of preferring the Devil you know to the Devil you don't know.

Universal basic income might be a good idea if it replaces all of the welfare programs and the bureaucracies that run the various programs. If the government needs employees simply for processing payments to verified people we would not need the overhead we have now of massive bureaucracies to implement, and that would save a lot of money. Although if focused just on those who qualify for welfare, you's still need bureaucracies to judge qualifications like a welfare block grant program. So expanding the payment to everyone would eliminate much of even that reduced bureaucracy. Perhaps this could be coupled with tax changes so that above a certain income level the UBI payment is effectively negated by tax changes. I still worry that such a program could the starting point for both parties to bid for the support of voters by increasing the UBI payment. So it might be a horrible idea. And I fear we'd just get UBI and all the other support programs and bureaucrats would remain intact. But it is enough outside of my lane that I'm open to arguments.

The F-35 will be a really good anti-ship platform. I noted that pending capability which as a Navy plane (the F-35C) would of course be part of the plane's capabilities. Of course, the carrier has to survive enemy anti-ship weapons to give the F-35C a chance as a sea-based anti-ship platform.

American funding for the Lebanese army might be a really bad idea. Yeah, I once thought it was a good thing to do to hope for a future where their army might take back southern Lebanon from Hezbollah (and hence Iranian) control. But that's no longer a hope.

This article notes that the Air Force cancellation of a light attack plane could cause it to lose credibility in the defense industry which pumped their own money into developing that aircraft. Personally, I worry more about the Air Force losing credibility with the Army which has to rely on the Air Force for timely close air support. So another case of friendly fire, I guess. The two-step shuffle continues. There will be no A-X2.

This is what presidential candidate Hillary Clinton spent her money on rather than campaigning in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.  This sure does seem like an attempted coup. Luckily they weren't very good at it and our military is too honorable to participate--contrary to the expressed wishes of many on the Left. Tip to the PJ Media Live Blog.

In related interest, the author of the above post I tipped my hat to wrote: "Or as I noted back around the time of Obama’s ascension, if Eisenhower were alive today, instead of the Military-Industrial Complex, he’d warn us against the Democrat-Media Complex." Of course, in that warning Eisenhower said we absolutely had to have the military-industrial complex. That part is always left off. I doubt Eisenhower would have expressed a similar need for the D-M Complex, eh?

Those history-illiterate GW students are aware that the "colonial" mascot reflects that we were the colonial subjects, right? Tip to Instapundit.

I have long yawned when told of an impending shortage of something important. So this is not news to me. I suppose you all remember the looming shortage of copper that would doom us ... cue the fiber optic cables.

Russian meddling knows no boundaries.  Have I called them effing bastards, lately?

Germany announces that post-Brexit they will be a sanctuary for criminals who target the British people. Lovely people, the Germans. Seventy-four years of nation-building isn't working out like I hoped. Tip to Instapundit.

Wait. What?! Tip to Instapundit.

It really is hard to see what the difference between a coup plot and what our FBI and intelligence agencies tried to do to Trump. Perhaps they truly believed extraordinary times required extraordinary means. But they persisted long after it should have been obvious that it was ridiculous (as it was to me from the beginning). Shame on them--if they have any. And seriously, given what we've seen about how the FBI leadership works (I'd forgotten this, but excuse me if I don't have a thorough catalog of Trump Hysteria Condition plots readily at hand), should we all be having panic attacks that this organization is our lead counter-intelligence agency?

Well that explains a lot (but perhaps I've shared too much). AOC is cute (for a much younger me, let me be clear) but painfully ill-informed with little evidence that higher education had any effect on her whatsoever. Actually, I have no cynicism and malaise to be rescued from. And again, perhaps I've shared too much.

Contra Perez, yes there actually is a problem with being a democratic socialist and supporting the capitalist free market system. This is why I've noted that socialism--state ownership of the economic assets of a country--is actually different from an expanded welfare system; and why I've said that I think what many people on the left who say they are democratic socialists mean is that they are really, really liberal and want more of a welfare state (broadly defined as including state intrusion into things like rent control and high minimum wages). But we might get socialism because those who claim the label don't know enough to separate the socialist proposals from the welfare state proposals. Mind you, the latter can be really bad in their long-term effects, too, but they aren't socialism--the gulags in the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics were work (you to death) camps and not playing video game camps.

If we can't get border security because of new-found Democratic distaste for border barriers, perhaps the best way for Republicans to halt illegal immigration would be to support higher minimum wages and more state power to prevent businesses from paying lower wages off the books. Remember, minimum wages were originally about preventing immigrants from undercutting American citizens in the job market. If jobs are scarcer and if employers can't cheat, immigrants won't be lured north my job opportunities, eh? This is not a serious proposal, of course. Although the logic is quite valid.

Should we work to disengage our economy from China's large role in our supply chain because China will never negotiate revisions to trade terms tilted heavily to China? Well, USMCA will give Mexico a leg up in taking up part of that role; and I've read that China is already losing low-cost manufacturing to Vietnam and other states. We really shouldn't sell the China the rope if they are determined to hang us with one.

Controlling guns is verboten if it might control illegal immigrants. Huh.

About the only good news in Algeria is that they still have jihadis on the run (after the 1990s bloodletting).

Knitting hate. What is wrong with these people? Intolerance takes many forms.

Clearly, proto-Skynet is trying to throw humans off the track of promising science that might stop the AI takeover. Tip to Instapundit.

Well that's odd: armed Americans, a Russian, and a Serb were arrested in Haiti. I don't know why I suspect they were heading for Venezuela on the payroll of Maduro.

Haven't they suffered enough? It isn't like they own MAGA hats or anything really harmful like that.

Strategypage looks at Afghanistan, Pakistan, (and India's post-bombing anger).  The Pakistanis really are a gem of an ally, eh? Oh well, better barely an ally than an enemy, I say. Well, until we have a secure supply line to Afghanistan through a non-nutball Iran, anyway. A man can hope.

It's good that the Navy has discovered that work in the littorals is no place for Littoral Combat Ships, but is the domain of small combatants.

By this amazing logic, any discussion of a foreign threat is a lie. And on the direct issue of Iraq let me repeat, we were justified in destroying Saddam's regime; and yes, we won the war. Heck, we won it twice after winning it the first time. But many people can't seem to recognize victory. But the author is against "another preventive war in the Middle East" notwithstanding his admission that Iran has already done a lot to deserve our worry: "Tehran’s transgressions are well-known. Iranian leaders have enabled the killing of hundreds of thousands of Syrians, invested in the Houthi effort to bleed Saudi Arabia in Yemen, and threatened the stability of Bahrain. Then there is Hezbollah, which, according to the U.S. government, receives $700 million a year from Iran and has become an expeditionary force for Iran in Syria, Yemen, and reportedly Afghanistan. The Iranians have also repeatedly called for Israel’s destruction and provided support to groups such as Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad." It would be a preventive war after that record? I'm not in favor of waging a conventional war against Iran. But if the Iran debate really is like the Iraq debate, I'm almost persuaded we should invade Iran.

For all those on the far left warning Trump not to invade Venezuela, didn't Obama establish the Responsibility to Protect doctrine for humanitarian intervention in Libya in 2011? Just wondering. How quickly the Hope dies.

Seriously people, Trump's emergency declaration for the border is not the start of martial law. It is just one more of many declared and still in existence. Honestly, "emergency" is just the magic word required in statute to trigger allowable executive powers. If the statute required the president to declare a "concern" or a "problem" or a "stalemate," the executive authority would be the same.

Russia denies they are violating the INF treaty that limits the range of certain missiles. And to prove our allegations are wrong the Russians displayed a missile that is not the missile we say violates the treaty. Their firehose of falsehood continues.

Cambridge is falling well short of its 2020 goal for reducing car ownership. Which is odd considering the polling that shows overwhelming support for other people using public transportation. That latter link never gets old.

I can overlook Australians being largely the descendants of criminals. But now they are just criminally stupid, it seems. Tip to Instapundit.

I see that Pakistanis are broadening their suicide bombing target list. Who don't they hate?

It has always amused me that people argued that legalization of drugs would eliminate the problem of criminals profiting from the drug trade: "As much as 80% of the marijuana sold in California comes from the black market, according to an estimate by New Frontier Data, a firm that tracks cannabis sales and trends."

I don't pay a lot of attention to Myanmar (Burma), although I'm sure India does.

This is the most deviously clever "dog whistle" to homophobes everywhere.

Putin "sternly warned" America not to put theater-range nuclear missiles in Europe. Like I've said, I'm not saying there won't be a nuclear arms race if America withdraws from the INF treaty. I'm just saying broke Russia won't be in the race.

In addition to concerns that ALIS could be hacked by enemies, it just isn't working and foreign (allied) customers are concerned about how much information we can get on their usage of F-35s from the new but not quite ready for prime time automated maintenance and mission planning software. Should we break it up and sell it for parts?

American (?) ISIL jihadi "wife" says "I hope America doesn't think I'm a threat to them and I hope they can accept me." Them? So Americans are a set she isn't part of? I'm glad that's settled. Now she can spend a lifetime abroad regretting her stupidity and criminality. If she sneaks back in to America, we should send her to Guantanamo Bay and let her gain weight on the free food provided. Oh, and let me point out that this jihadi believes that it is perfectly safe to return to Trump's allegedly Islamophobic, hate-filled, dog-whistling America. Grant me that that aspect is funny.

If you really want to prevent Russia (or China or anyone else) from hacking our elections, go to paper ballots with voter ID required (which covers domestic voter fraud, too).

Does Putin's lower poll approval mean he will really focus on improving the living standards of Russians rather than seeking short and glorious wars to bolster his popularity?

Lockheed Martin (I own a tiny amount of their stock, I should note) is offering India an updated F-16 with a marketing spin by calling it the F-21. In 2011 I called a fighter choice the most important defense decision India will make this decade. We're running out of this decade.

Speaking of updated classics, the Air Force will buy some F-15X planes. I did mention they'd be a useful supplement appropriate for both continental air defense and as a missile truck.

Yes, democracy is failing in Libya. But they don't need a strong man. They need rule of law. Almost uniformly when people speak of democracy they only mean voting, which ignores the vital role of rule of law in preventing voting from being the tyranny of the majority. Remember, democracy did not cause chaos and terrorism. Libya hasn't had the chance to try democracy yet.

I continue to suspect Netanyahu is consulting with Putin to establish the parameters of an Israeli multi-division ground raid into Lebanon to seriously crush Hezbollah's infrastructure.

Let's just send this terrorist (alleged thus far, so after conviction of course) thug to Guantanamo Bay for the rest of of his scummy life. Although perhaps we can just execute him under the UCMJ. But I'm speculating. Although I'm not sure how he is a white supremacist since he wanted to kill everyone including specific white people.

The EU is taking policy and spending advice from children. I don't want to hear another damned word about supposed European sophistication and nuance. Even in California we're not that bad yet.

The second Trump-Kim summit is close. Lord knows if it can lead to real progress. I'm not hopeful. But I'm encouraged that talks are coupled with squeezing North Korea harder rather than shoveling aid at them. I've long been on board that approach. So even if the talks fail, North Korea is in rougher shape after.

I would like it if America and China are close to a trade deal that corrects the imbalance in favor of China. I had no problem with the minimally reformed NAFTA because I had no problem with NAFTA.

You wonder why I oppose the Internet of Things?

A former legal counsel at the FBI believed Hillary Clinton should have been prosecuted for her email scandal, until "pretty late" in the investigation. Why? because he ultimately decided her intent couldn't be proven. Which would be significant if "intent" was a factor in defining the crime. The server itself was the smoking gun, remember.

How dare you? Never mind. I bet Al Franken continues to have headaches about how easily he rolled over to the Twitter mob that called for his scalp. Well, Franken's timing wasn't nearly as good as it could have been.

The "most transparent administration" continues. As a history and political science major, I must register my protest.

I'm not sure why her stupidity should be my financial problem.

False victimhood is the last refuge of a scoundrel. As it turns out, the real hate crime was conducted by the left and the media who used the fake crime (what, you can't find real ones?) to eagerly demonize tens of millions of Americans. Also, just what do those layers and layers of editors and fact checkers do, anyway? Let's be grateful that the battle against racism and hate crimes has been so successful in America that "activists" and the media had to jump on a fake allegation because real hate crimes are relatively rare in our large country. Indeed, so rare that the search for "micro-aggressions" has replaced the search for actual aggression.

Well, Snopes just jumped the shark bee. This bee. And you wonder why Smollett was believed so easily by so many?

“This one is a four.” I laughed out loud at that point.

The Jussie Smollett hate crime hoax is disturbing. The media always falls for them and the media always immediately draws conclusions about the supposed broader population "represented" by the alleged attacker in ways that would never be done for a killer shouting "allahu ahkbar" while they commit their evil deeds. Can't we all just agree that racists and jihadis are evil? And can't we all be happy that there wasn't a horrible hate crime committed? I know it is a natural thing for people to think that the crime of one of their own is an aberration while the crimes of the other side reflects what "they" all really think, but this just highlights how biased the media is, eh? 

Oh, and sure every Democratic candidate jumped on the hoax despite problems with the story without waiting a bit to see how it unfolded.  But the remarks of a character in a book I read in the mid-1970s has always stuck with me. An American was chastising a French intelligence counterpart for feeding obviously wrong information to his eager bosses in Paris who believed every word. The French officer defended his actions despite knowing better, saying, "It is better to be wrong in the same way as your boss than it is to be right when he is wrong." The left-activist media and Democratic primary voters are the bosses of those candidates right now. So don't expect a chorus of politicians "condemning this behavior and every person who enables or normalizes" such hoaxes. Pity layers and layers of fact-checkers and editors didn't help the media do a better job. Tip to Instapundit.

That actually happened to me. Although I did not actually apologize. I simply asked, "You are aware that it wasn't actually me, right?"

Remember that Iran's control of some Shia Popular Mobilization Force militia units that are based in Sunni Arab areas essentially alienate Iraqi Sunni Arabs from the Iraqi government. Which pushes Sunni Arabs to look to jihadis as a counter-weight to the PMF forces. Essentially Iran is stoking sectarian unrest in Iraq as they have since even before the Iranian revolution. Today it helps justify Iranian influence in Iraq to "protect" the government from Sunni Arab threats. Amazingly, the Saudis and Jordanians still seem to be taking baby steps (because they mistrust the Shia-dominated Iraqi government) to bringing Iraq back firmly into the Arab fold to counter Shia but Persian Iran.

The French are mobilizing against anti-Semitism. That's good, of course. But why do I suspect this is just something convenient for tainting the "yellow jacket" protests? After the short shelf life of the whole Charlie thing, I guess I'll really believe the effort is serious when the protests take place in the French immigrant suburbs that are rife with anti-Semitism.

I don't mean to be overly rude, but his threats just don't scare me. But what's with this? "President Vladimir Putin has said ... that his country currently has the edge when it comes to a first nuclear strike." (Oddly that quote disappeared in the article but it is all over the search results.) So New START wasn't the brilliant diplomatic success that Kerry said it was?

You don't have to be stupid to be woke, but it helps. Tip to Instapundit.

Iran does face opposition to staying in Syria: "Iran has a major problem in that no one wants them in Syria much less acting as an occupying military force in Syria dedicated to starting a war with Israel." What I don't get is why we don't sponsor an information war campaign to the Arab world that Iran wants to fight Israel to the last Arab. Wouldn't it be good to highlight that Iran wants Arabs to die for Iran's obsession with destroying Israel?

I asked if Guyana could avoid the oil curse in this weekend data dump. This author asks that question and explores answers.

If the British delay Brexit to avoid a "no deal" exit, doesn't this just give the EU an incentive to avoid working with Britain in the hope that ultimately Brexit will be canceled?

The IAEA says Iran is abiding by the Obama nuclear deal. That's not the problem. The problem is that the deal is so bad that at best it delays Iran a decade while it shields Iran from military action. The IAEA can say they can't detect Iranian violations of the deal through the weak deal mechanisms to discover Iranian work on nukes. The IAEA can't say Iran isn't working on nuclear weapons technology. So of course Iran abides by the deal despite our withdrawal from it. The Iranians would be fools to violate it openly as long as they can trick Europeans into trying to avoid our sanctions.

I once thought of post-Apartheid South Africa as the bright spot of southern Africa that might be the locomotive of progress for the region. No more. Although why you need to compare South Africa to Venezuela when neighboring Zimbabwe already went down that path is beyond me.

Well, North Korea knows what it needs to do to solve the hunger issue. We simply can't be held hostage by caring more for the North Korean people than Kim does.

I do hope I have a change of underwear handy: "Pakistan's prime minister on Thursday authorized the armed forces to 'respond decisively and comprehensively to any aggression or misadventure' by neighboring India, as tensions soared between the nuclear-armed rivals.India has vowed a 'jaw-breaking response' to a suicide bombing in the disputed Kashmir region last week that killed 40 Indian soldiers" Pakistan deserves whatever it gets from India (shy of nukes, of course). But the world doesn't deserve the worst that could happen if Pakistan goes fully nutball.

Humanitarian aid intended for Venezuela is literally burned at the border, providing a fitting symbol of how Maduro and his cronies have figuratively burned Venezuela to the ground the past couple decades.

If we are truly "gravely concerned" about the actions Ergodan is taking to undermine democracy we should absolutely make sure Turkey does not get the F-35. Domestic actions reflect that they aren't good enough of an ally to trust with this advanced technology.

I'm fully onboard a bipartisan effort to end the ability of a president to declare an "emergency" and bypass Congress. I assume this would apply going forward after the border emergency, of course, because retroactive legislation is also problematic, to say the least. But then I've long believed that failure of Congress to do something the president wants is not an excuse for the president to do it anyway, but a form of a decision not to do something.

I assume the French paid for her release from Iran.

A Russian fighter buzzed a Swedish recon plane in international air space. #WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings