Russia doesn't need America to build it an off ramp to exit the Winter War of 2022. Russia can turn around and leave through the routes their troops invaded Ukraine. Ukrainians have made it crystal clear they don't want "rescuing" from the likes of Putin's Russia. America should not be in the business of figuring out how to reward Russia into ending its invasion of Ukraine. America should be trying to defeat Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Russia's invasion continues but it is not ramping up despite seizing the initiative from Ukraine again.
But Ukraine has yet to sustain a counteroffensive to drive the Russians out.
Too many Westerners reject helping Ukraine defeat or even resist Russia because Ukraine is not a "real" country separate from Russia. I disagree. But if there was any truth to that, a year of fighting and dying to prevent Russia from conquering Ukraine surely made Ukraine a "real" country.
After I wrote those words above in the initial draft of this post, I read this:
Vladimir Putin created the modern state of Ukraine. This is a state that clearly is now going to be around for decades, if not centuries. The year 2022 is their 1776. It is the year they unified their country and finally and firmly broke with their past as a member of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union. It is the year it clearly asserted itself as Ukraine.
This strategy is meant to prolong the war and demoralize Ukraine’s NATO allies as well as the Ukrainian population. This Russian strategy of attacks on the economy began a few months after the war began and the Russian forces suffered heavy losses. For most of 2022 Russia was deliberately attacking the Ukrainian economy and the result was that Ukrainian GDP declined 30 percent in 2022.
If Russia plans to create a desert in Ukraine and call it victory, it would have been better to make that the mission from the start. A massive raid that planned to return to the marginally adjusted border could have been portrayed as "teaching the Ukrainians a lesson."
Russia's current strategy requires Russian soldiers to die in astounding numbers against Ukrainians committed to defeating Russia. Will the cannon fodder keep showing up to die?
God help us all, but Putin's strategy might work if the West lets the war drag on because it doesn't provide Ukraine enough weapons to conduct an offensive to decisively defeat the Russian army in battle and win the war.
Putin has no intention of ending the war because of his casualties. And clever Western peace proposals won't work. Putin will end the war if his ground forces are defeated.
UPDATE (Tuesday): Ukraine suffers from the effects of battle casualties and ammunition shortages.
As I asked when we could see the effects of those problems slowing down Russia's offensives, is Ukraine holding back trained troops and ammo for a big counteroffensive? The article notes that possibility.
Early in the war I assumed a Ukrainian strategic reserve held back. But there was none because everyone was needed to stem the tide.
We'll find out soon, it seems. Fingers crossed that Ukrainian pessimism is of the "when near, appear far" variety.
UPDATE (Wednesday): It seems as if Russian advances to encircle Ukrainian defenders still inside Bakhmut have reached the point where Ukraine must counterattack to drive back the Russians around the city; or evacuate to another defensive line west of the city. Or, I suppose, the defenders of Bakhmut may be preparing a "Bastogne" defense to await relief after encirclement.
UPDATE (Sunday): Exactly what I've been saying:
"Armies don’t run out of ammunition, ammunition supplies get lowered—and as they get lowered, armies have to shoot at higher priority targets and not shoot at lower priority targets," says Mark F. Cancian, a retired Marine Corps reserves colonel and senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
The war will go on at some level of firepower usage. I'll also note that studies after World War I showed that the vast majority of artillery fire was a waste. It made noise but did little damage to dug-in troops.
I don't think Ukraine's often more precise fire is at as big a disadvantage compared to Russian barrages as you'd think based on volume of fire comparisons.
Oh, what I said about priority targets. And this pre-war observation about the issue has held up.
NOTE: ISW coverage of the war continues here.
