Russia claims Ukraine is a threat to Russia. But conquering Ukraine is likely too hard for a still-weakened post-Soviet Russia. Could Putin hope to wreck and steal from Ukraine to turn the eastern part into a desert and call it victory?
Invading Ukraine will provoke more Western sanctions that could really harm Russian power:
Dozens of Ukrainian factories and research facilities that either produced components or carried out R&D programs for Russia’s defense-industrial complex and space program severed their relations with Moscow after the seizure of Crimea. This has significantly increased Russia’s cost for producing new weapons systems and space hardware. Western sanctions, including a ban on all advanced technology component exports to Russia, further exacerbated the issue.
If Russia invades, Russia would surely keep at least some of the land captured. But would Russia want the expense of trying to conquer and brutally pacify large parts of Ukrainian territory? When Russia's attempts to get locals to rule for Russia in the much smaller eastern Donbas require constant Russian direct support?
Why not steal what is useful to Russia and destroy the rest--including energy pipelines--with a scorched earth withdrawal back to Russia's (adjusted) border to cripple Ukraine for generations?
I've suspected that Russia has been buying time in the east against Chinese territorial claims by appeasing China while increasing hostility toward the West.
But Russia is running out of time and has not rebuilt to defend its Far East, short of using nuclear weapons.
It's been puzzling to me that Russia is seemingly refusing to address the threat in the east by failing to repair relations with the West to make Europe a safe area for the real front in the Far East. Provoking NATO hostility is madness in this light.
But Russia seems like it can only tolerate enemies or vassals on its border:
Really, is Russia incapable of having friends or allies? Is Russia only capable of dealing with foreigners as conquered people or client states, targets for conquest or dominance, potential enemies that have to be resisted before it comes to armed conflict, or potential enemies who must be appeased while Russia prepares to resist them?
And Russia has stated in this Ukraine crisis that it can't trust NATO promises.
Could Russia be willing to buy more time to blunt threats from China by turning Ukraine into a desert for a generation or two, thus preventing it from being a threat? Or even being a jumping off point for NATO to be a threat from its territory? While scaring Europeans reliant on Russian energy with a display of brutality?
Angering NATO--which does not have the capability to invade Russia--even more is not that damaging for Russia if Russia has Belarus as a launching point to threaten NATO; and if Ukraine is more than a figurative logistics desert impeding potential NATO threats.
So where are the Ukrainian factories and research facilities that Russia could use to blunt further Western sanctions and prop up Russian arms manufacturing?
I'm speculating, admittedly, for an objective that makes sense.
UPDATE: It doesn't make sense to me that Russia would risk a big war. But I worry because "Russia has a history of bad judgment, ignoring the lessons of their own history and self-destructive military decisions." Trying to figure out what "makes sense" might be futile.
One is to change the government in Kyiv by force, as America did in Afghanistan and Iraq. Another is to impose massive costs on Ukraine—whether by decimating its armed forces, destroying its critical national infrastructure or occupying territory—until its leaders agree to sever their ties to the West. The third is to address that demand to America and NATO—this time from a commanding military position. All three routes would necessitate a big war.
The Russians are fully capable of fucking this up.
UPDATE: Remember, the Russian army is pretty small. And casualty averse. It can't hold of China let alone start a war with NATO and risk China exploiting that.
Whatever Russia does, it needs to be over in weeks or months and not years or decades.
Unless that whole "bad judgment" thing kicks in.
Have a super sparkly day.
UPDATE: I changed the meme. I'm horrified this didn't occur to me from the beginning.
UPDATE: Does Russia just want a punitive mission to wreck Ukraine's military? This could be part of my thoughts.
If so, my advice from 2014 holds:
If Putin does escalate to openly waged warfare against Ukraine to take eastern Ukraine, Ukraine needs to do three things: preserve the Ukrainian army; wage irregular warfare in eastern Ukraine to stress Russia's still-inadequate ground forces; and strike Sevastopol.
That advice holds whether Russia is conquering or destroying.
