Is the future of war hypersonic weapons, space warfare, and cyberattacks? Maybe for the first week until the fancy missiles run out and the enemy is thrown back to 20th- or 19th-century capabilities.*
But what does the future of great-power warfare look like and is the West a match for the challenges ahead?
First off, "future warfare" is already here. Many of the aspects of a major conflict between the West and say, Russia or China, have already been developed, rehearsed and deployed.
On 16 November, Russia carried out a missile test in space, destroying one of its own satellites. Over the summer China conducted tests of its advanced hypersonic missiles, capable of travelling at many times the speed of sound. Offensive cyber attacks, whether disruptive or predatory, have become a regular daily occurrence, something known as "sub-threshold warfare".
Oh, sure. Those capabilities exist. And I addressed the hypersonics aspect recently.
As I commented about the First Gulf War (Iran-Iraq War):
Yet by fighting on for years when most believed the First Gulf War would have to end rapidly, the Iraqis and Iranians have provided us with a much needed lesson that wars do not just end on their own. By simply pausing instead of furiously fighting Lemming-like until all weapons and ammunition are expended, these two states fought for nearly eight years.
The same happened in World War I when artillery ammunition stockpiles ran low when the war wasn't over by Christmas. Eventually the western Allies lowered firing rates and pressed old artillery into action until ammunition manufacturing could be ramped up.
The Russians were running out early even in their small Syria intervention:
It is no secret that Russia is running out of smart bombs and replacement parts for many of these new weapons.
And don't think America is immune to the problem, even in our battles against jihadis--let alone peer military competitors.
It will take a long time before the newest means of fighting are so integrated into military forces that they will be significant for even a long war.
Until then, the war will go on after the flashy weapons are expended. The best weapons will be reserved for priority targets while the rest will fight at lower tech levels with troops and civilians paying the price to make up for the lack of flashier weapons or high-value targets.
*I started out talking about enemies running out of advanced weapons. But as I noted as I continued, this applies to America and the West, too.
