Wednesday, January 05, 2022

Pucker Factor Understandably High

Kim Jong-Un has called on his soldiers to loyally defend him. Wait. What?

Kim Jong Un understands his people are in deep trouble. But do the rulers actually think people believe Kim will improve their lives? Maybe some will. But the vast majority need to be kept in line by loyal security forces, including the army if things get really bad for the tiny ruling elite that isn't suffering.

In the past this loyalty was assumed from ideology or fear:

North Korea on Thursday urged its 1.2 million troops to unite behind leader Kim Jong Un and defend him with their lives, as the country celebrated the 10th anniversary of Kim’s ascension to supreme commander of the military. ...

In a lengthy editorial, the official Rodong Sinmun newspaper said that North Korea's military commanders and soldiers must become an “impregnable fortress and bulletproof walls in devotedly defending (Kim) with their lives.”

I'm not sure what basis Kim has to claim that loyalty. A long time ago, the North Korean ruling caste decided to adapt to their poverty following the collapse of the USSR to rely on a regime self-preservation strategy I dubbed kooks, spooks, and nukes:

Secret police and nuclear weapons are the new leading instruments to keep Kim Jong Il and his merry band of murderers in power. Interesting priorities given that the North Koreans like to insist they fear we will invade them at any moment.

Even as the troops saw their fortunes decline, the nukes leg ran into difficulties and even the spooks began to look shaky:

The nukes haven't really shown up, despite some partially successful nuclear tests of nuclear devices (not weapons). And the spooks aren't all that loyal, it seems. The kooks are getting lonely at the top.

The next stage will be a reliance on just some of the spooks to protect just some of the elites from everyone else (the real 99 percent). This ends with some of the elite hanging from dark lamp posts in Pyongyang's central square.

To be fair, the regime could see their brilliant plan wasn't working. But other than decreeing that it would work, they had nothing:

Starving the army didn't work and the North Korean regime announced a return of the "military first" policy, although how Pyongyang would afford that I had no idea. Unless you trim the army and reform the economy to afford that army, what on Earth are you really doing? Just getting the army's hopes up long enough to really disappoint them?

And now the Xi JInping Flu pandemic that totally isn't affecting North Korea due to Rocket Man's brilliance is bouncing the rubble.

So the regime pleads for loyalty.

In time, it has become clear that the army is just a way to use, control, and monitor lots of revolution-age young men:

The bulk of the North Korean army has been a slave labor force that has the benefit of keeping young men in prime revolution years under party supervision. Now the troops will do even more non-military work.

And the spooks controlling and monitoring the army aren't reliable any more. 

I seriously wonder if the Kim regime will try to solve his problem of potentially disloyal troops by flinging them at the DMZ to be slaughtered. His nukes would ideally deter a regime-changing counteroffensive.

And if the sickly and poorly prepared North Korean invaders somehow defeat the South Korean army? The survivors will be happy with the loot.

Interesting times.

UPDATE: Surveying the catastrophe.