Monday, January 24, 2022

Russia's Relationship With China is "Tricky"?

The idea that Russia doesn't fear China because of Russian military superiority is nuts.

I nearly spewed my coffee over my computer screen

Russia’s policymakers and society do not fear China in the way that many countries in the West and China’s neighbourhood do. This might be thanks to Russia’s still-significant military superiority, or the presence of some residual beliefs from Soviet times, when the state media routinely portrayed China as a ‘younger brother’ and a less developed country.

Unless you count military power as gross explosive force, which includes nukes, Russia does not have military superiority despite its loud boasting. There is a record of that kind of deceit.

Especially because Russia is concentrating it's small amount of effective conventional military power against Ukraine these days, while loudly proclaiming a non-existent NATO threat to invade Russia.

Which makes Russian military weakness even greater in its Far East where China's Century of Humiliation continues. Which is why Russia has practiced rushing troops to the Far East.

Despite that practice, Russia's only realistic hope of stopping a Chinese invasion to reclaim lost territory is the early use of nuclear weapons. Yet China's recent decision to dramatically expand its nuclear arsenal will have more utility in deterring Russian use of nukes than it will on America, I think.

And Russia's policymakers absolutely fear China. That's why Russia is appeasing China by accepting near-vassal status. 

Frenemies with temporary benefits is the best way to describe the relationship. "Tricky," indeed.

UPDATE: Russia doesn't see this, but yes:

The biggest real threat Russia faces is not from Eastern Europe, but from its eastern neighbor, China.

But Russia's mental health problems are our problem. And Russia's problem, really, given the threat from China.