Will China arm Russia? It doesn't make sense to me. But you never can tell when the Chinese rulers will see things differently than I do.
Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine was supposed to be won in three days with mopping up taking just weeks more. China seemed fine with that.
Now that Russia is running low on men, weapons, and ammunition, Russia hopes its partner "without limits" will step up. China has not, although America believes China is thinking about it. Some in the West worry this is expanding the European war to World War III.
Friedman (the good one) isn't too worked up about the idea of China siding with Russia:
The specter of a Chinese-Russian alliance against the United States seems catastrophic to many Americans, and the idea of Chinese weapons on the Ukrainian battlefield seems like a preface to disaster. But these concerns are misplaced.
Several reasons argue against China providing significant military aid to Russia:
--China's economy is shaky (tip to Instapundit) and so Russia-related Western sanctions could be painful.
--If America overreacted with a military response, China could be blockaded from a distance--even if China defeated the U.S. Navy in battle near China.
--The line of supply from China to Russia's Ukraine front is long.
Bottom line?
To be clear, Beijing could send small numbers of relatively inconsequential equipment, but that’s hardly a prelude to World War III.
I agree. Russia and China are frenemies with benefits; with Russia teetering on the edge of being a full vassal of China.
Given the problems from supplying Russia, Russia's foundering in Ukraine is threatening to make Russia China's liability without limits. Is China really ready to subsidize Russia's war with the risks China runs doing so?
A quick war would have been great for China. Europe might have been shaken and NATO weakened. America would have found that its economy-of-force front in Europe required much more American military attention to maintain forward defense in Europe at the expense of Asia. That decrease in American military power earmarked for Asia might discourage allies from arming up and encourage them to cut deals with China.
A war that expands in Europe to include NATO might help China by wrecking America, Europe, and Russia. But with Russian nuclear threats that China does not like, China has to worry their junior partner will suck them in to that outcome, as well.
Hell, Russia might (again) consider a nuclear strike on China to make them share in the pain, too.
And China must consider if its military aid will help Russia win the war against Ukraine. If not, the longer the war drags on the more Europe rearms and the better prepared America becomes for a long war against China as America rebuilds the arsenal of democracy. Russia exposed that American logistics weakness. China probably isn't too happy with that.
China's peace plan, as unrealistic as it is, may indicate that China prefers the war to end before bad things happen.
And you never can tell. Russia's faceplant in Ukraine might be seen in Peking as an opportunity to begin clawing back some of the lesser-known losses from the Century of Humiliation.
Interesting times, indeed, for Russia as their short and glorious war against Ukraine changes the chess board for the worse. Will the Ukraine clue bat finally knock some sense into the Russians that the West is no threat while China is?
I can see China quietly slipping some weapons to Russia to let Russia test them in combat conditions. Perhaps via Belarus.
China could deny it, blaming bad private actors that China is of course vigorously pursuing, and escape sanctions retaliation.
But I concede Xi Jinping may see things differently than I do. Putin sure did a year ago.
Indeed, Xi may think in practice we are already at war. He may think that the risk of internal unrest is more of a danger to CCP rule than war with America. He may think his military is awesome and Russia's war stumbles prove nothing except that the Russians are hairy steppe chimps who do not reflect how China's enduring and advanced civilization will fight.
We'll see if Xi's visit to Russia bolsters or restrains Putin's war.
UPDATE: I don't care if Xi's visit to Russia was a "symbolic shot in the arm" for Putin. Symbolism doesn't explode.
UPDATE: I don't get all the hyperventilating about Russia and China getting closer. I don't really see it happening. ISW only sees Russia becoming closer to China's vassal. (My word, not their word.) As I observed before:
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 continues here.
