We may mock Russia for their logistics failings. But you have to admit that Russia has been able to keep shooting and fighting--however flawed their execution is--a high-intensity war for a year now. Could America do that?
Decades ago I warned that conventional war is not inherently short:
The [Iran-Iraq] war as a whole showed us that modern war is not inherently brief. Arab-Israeli and Indo-Pakistani wars since World War II have misled us into thinking this is the norm. Desert Storm has seemingly confirmed this view and America now seeks a small but lethal Army that will strike hard, win fast, and come home. Yet by fighting on for years when most believed the First Gulf War would have to end rapidly, the Iraqis and Iranians have provided us with a much needed lesson that wars do not just end on their own. By simply pausing instead of furiously fighting Lemming-like until all weapons and ammunition are expended, these two states fought for nearly eight years.
Russia both narrowed its offensive frontage and reduced its intensity to fight beyond the time it thought was necessary. (And both expanded the war from the battlefield to economic and civilian targets, as stalemate on the battlefield developed.)
But we did not learn this lesson basic lesson from the Iran-Iraq War.
Via Instapundit, for too long we pretended we didn't need to prepare to sustain a long war. Now we have a problem:
The USA is in better shape than our allies ... and even some of our opponents as well - but you don't prevent, much less win wars, by just being marginally better. You must have overwhelming power.
If you desire a quick war, you must be armed and prepared for a long war. If you are not ready for a long war but only a quick war - then you will get the former and regret the day your predecessors bought off on the later.
America isn't the only Western country with the problem. And our problem is not the worst of the lot.
But the problem was predictable. And wasn't fixed. And I did warn about this early in the Winter War of 2022.
We should be grateful that the West is having its noses rubbed into this mess while trying to sustain Ukraine in repelling the Russian invasion.
Is the lesson finally learned?
For at least the past five years, military planners have paid lip-service to the growing possibility of such a conflict in the future, with a revanchist Russia in Europe or in the Pacific with a China attempting to invade Taiwan. But it has not been reflected in either the stockpiling of essential munitions or the investment in the industrial capacity required to produce them at the rate that any war lasting more than a few weeks would demand.
It would be worse if our troops were fighting while we painfully learned this lesson.
UPDATE: A good lesson to learn (via Instapundit):
under no circumstances should any production line of weapons systems be allowed to go cold until its replacement achieves initial operational capability. Once those lines – and its equipment and craftsmen – are lost, they are almost impossible to get back.
The author is preaching to the choir on the long war issue. Although I’ll quibble with his assessment of our war record.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
