The result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine may well weaken Russia for a decade. And for even longer if Russia's military is clearly defeated in its invasion. But that is the result of Putin's poor decisions and not NATO's plan. Talk of a NATO "proxy" war against Russia seems like an effort to let Putin win.
Russia's invasion isn't really a proxy war with NATO.
Clearly the effect of the war on Russia’s ability to do more mischief to neighbouring countries is a bonus for Nato but that is not why the war is being fought. That muddles cause and effect. The impact on Russia is a measure of Moscow’s folly and not Nato’s intent. If it wanted to stay strong it should not have embarked on this reckless war.
Furthermore, beyond welcoming a Russia that is less able to throw its weight around and bully others, few in the West relish the prospect of Russia falling apart, for that would simply unleash yet more unruly forces. Again, it is possible that there might be instability in Russia after this war, but that will not be because the US and its allies have willed it but because Putin set events in motion that he was unable to control.
The "proxy war" concept is vague and a lot of people claim it applies to NATO's response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
But to me this has never felt like a proxy war. Russia
illegally invaded Ukraine. Ukraine wants to defeat the Russians and
survive. Western countries are providing Ukraine the means to resist,
consistent with the UN charter. For now, our interests coincide.
If the West is part of a plot to destroy Russia using Ukraine, as Russia and too many Westerners claim, it is a strange plot indeed that required Russia to invade Ukraine first for the plot to unfold.
And yeah, it could get worse for Russia than "only" a weakened military and economy. But not because Ukraine will eventually invade Russia, pushed forward by NATO demands that it complete "the plan." It's because Russia invaded and refuses to cut its losses and stop invading.
I mean, unless you go along with Russian propaganda that the territory Russia has conquered from a charter member of the United Nations is actually part of Russia now. And God help us, it seems like the Proxyists want exactly that. Letting the Wookie win is not wise policy.
Sometimes this view of a NATO war against Russia is dressed up as genius politics. Why are we fighting Russia over Ukraine's border when our border with Mexico is open, some conservatives say.
But the idea that we can secure our southern border (a good idea) at the expense of letting Russia conquer Ukraine (a bad idea) is nonsense. Before Russia invaded, our southern border was open. Clearly, helping Ukraine isn't the cause of an open border. If conservatives attempt that trade, Russia will conquer Ukraine, Putin will be convinced of his superior will for the next war. And Democrats will still block securing the southern border. Ah, genius!
But I digress.
Russia's defense against that so-called Western plot is obvious. Russia should not have invaded. And having invaded, Putin can withdraw and end the war. I mean, doesn't Putin's decision to invade and fall into that Western trap call into question his capacity as a leader? Wouldn't a wise leader have avoided a war against all of NATO, as he claims? And toss in the Nazis and Satan that Putin chose to fight as Exhibits B and C for the case against Putin's judgment.
But maybe Putin is part of the Western plot.
Anyway, it's nice to see push back on the notion that Russia's invasion is somehow a NATO proxy plot against Russia.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
