I still think that Democrats nominated Biden because they expected to lose the 2020 election. The idea that he was the only nominee who could beat Trump is wrong. A media-bureaucracy alliance capable of pushing the addled Biden over the line could have done that for anyone. I think Democrats didn't want to waste a good candidate in a losing effort, so put up Biden. And then had the once-in-a-century gift of a pandemic to cripple Trump. And here we are.
The story of those Goddamned semi-fascist bastard un-American rat-f**king partisan censors I mentioned last week. Tip to Instapundit.
I hope this is true: "The Russia effort to carry out a 'maximum mobilization' of military production has turned out to be an expensive failure."
As I suspected, sending Abrams to Ukraine was about breaking the dam on sending Leopard II tanks. In the long run, Abrams tanks could be part of Ukraine's arsenal. But not this year.
Next stop, F-16s? "As Ukraine prepares to launch a new offensive to retake territory in the spring, the campaign inside the Defense Department for fighter jets is gaining momentum, according to a DoD official and two other people involved in the discussions." If we want to do this faster and with fewer fingerprints? Russia might actually need to fully commit their air force to battle. F-16s would help counter that.
And also the Chinese want to take our precious bodily fluids? Questions to answer to evaluate the claim.
Amazing! "Germany is embarking on a rapidly accelerated procurement process to
equip 'each and every' solider [sic] from its armed forces with personnel
equipment like protective gear, night vision goggles, and rucksacks
inside the next three years, according to a German defense official." Truly amazing! I mean, who knew Germany had an army? And also, rucksacks are currently in short supply. FFS, if Russia had faced Germany instead of Ukraine in February 2022, the Russians would have paraded into Berlin.
It is not wise to rule out the Army's primary role--large-scale combat operations--in the Pacific for the defense of Taiwan. True. I'm disappointed my Taiwan article and broader Asia-Pacific article weren't cited, naturally. And this paper, too, while I'm at it. Woe is me. Still, it's nice not to be so strategically lonely. I'll note that an early, rejected draft of that broader Asia-Pacific article was returned to me all yellowed because it had been processed to defeat anthrax, in the aftermath of the 9/11 terror attacks.
The situation between Armenia and Azerbaijan is heating up again. Russia seems too occupied to do much to settle the dispute down.
Russia "warns" that nuclear arms control agreements might be ending without American cooperation. Oh, please. Russia loves agreements it can cheat on. And Russia probably has a good reason to limit our nukes.
True: "A senior U.S. general has recently warned U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace that the British Army is no longer considered to be among the world’s top-tier fighting forces, according to a Sunday report." But this was a feature and not a bug of post-Brexit Britain. But Russia's invasion of Ukraine will likely change that.
It seems likely that American drones hit an Iranian supply convoy in eastern Syria coming from Iraq. Which is interesting, given that Israel usually does this. Perhaps a bunch of Iran-backed rocket attacks on U.S. bases in Syria provoked this reaction.
And now for something completely different:
That drone attack last week on an Iranian military production plant apparently works on ballistic missiles and drones. That helps Israel, Ukraine, and Saudi Arabia. Bang for the buck. But was it successful? Dunno.
Are the "walls closing in" on Biden? That's the word in conservative world. But the left said the same thing for years about Trump. My worry is that what Biden does is actually legal. I've often said the outrage isn't the crimes our politicians commit, but what they do that is perfectly legal. If walls are closing in it is because Democrats and their media allies want Biden out of the 2024 race.
Taliban 2.0: "The Taliban on Saturday doubled down on their ban on women's education,
reinforcing in a message to private universities that Afghan women are
barred from taking university entry exams, according to a spokesman." This will never get old:
Yeah, absolutely buy that flight insurance when flying on Russian airlines.
Should Space Force look to the Moon or Earth? Well, both. Nobody listened to my suggestion. And don't get me started on Space Navy.
What is behind Pakistan's deadly Taliban insurgency? Pakistan. Pakistan stokes "tame" Islamism as a pillar of their legitimacy. And Pakistan tried to maneuver between supporting "good" Taliban Islamists who fought the former Western-backed government of Afghanistan and "bad" Taliban who fight Pakistan. And toss in the "good" Islamists who Pakistan sends to fight India in Kashmir. Islamists have trouble distinguishing between the good and bad, I guess. No nuance at all. And in late-breaking news ...
News from San Francisco: "This Is Why Many Downtown SF Starbucks Locations Are Seatless[.]" When I managed a rough arcade I took out the stools to discourage the youth from hanging out and listening to music (and I put in on a country station weekend nights), getting in the way of paying customers. It was just too difficult to keep the stools and constantly kick them out. And minimum wage employees weren't going to do that when I was not there. This trend will spread, I assume. Then Hollywood will make a movie about it. Seatless in Seattle, starring Meg Ryan and Tom Hanks. Thank you. Thank you. I'll be here all week. Tip the wait staff.
Preparing for Arctic warfare in northern mitten of Michigan. Until our troops can survive January in the Upper Peninsula when Yoopers are still in their shorts, we're not ready for Arctic warfare.
Uh oh. Tip to Instapundit.
I was puzzled about the American delay in sending Abrams tanks. I had to wonder if my memory of our stockpile was obsolete. I'm still puzzled: "The United States has thousands of M1 tanks in reserve. Currently over 2,000 M1 tanks are in use by U.S. Army units. Some M1s are with American units already in Europe. There are also over 3,000 M1s held in reserve. These are not the latest models but were seen as adequate replacements for M1 tanks lost in some future conflict." And the Marines recently retired their Abrams tanks.
Release the Kraken! "Poseidon is a psychological terror weapon, something the Russians have long been fond of. It’s an expensive obsession because creating the Belgorod and Poseidon torpedoes and their Cobalt radiation warheads cost billions of dollars for a weapon that may never be used and if it does get used, may not work as expected. After all, how do you test the Cobalt super bomb to confirm that it works?" It seems like a waste of money.
The Merkava 5. Also, Fire Weaver.
We tempt China to attack by dangling forces forward: "[The] USA must maintain a strong, long ranged, and safely based offensive force well outside the range of a PRC quick strike - homeported/based at diverse locations - and supported by logistics capabilities in depth to reach and sustain at range combat operations." Preaching to the choir at TDR. If that theater-wide Pearl Harbor doesn't destroy much, we eliminate the incentive to strike first. And yeah, I've long been worried about Guam as a missile magnet.
The Philippines is poised to expand military cooperation with America: "The expansion involves access to Philippine military bases, likely including two on the northern island of Luzon — which, analysts said, could give U.S. forces a strategic position from which to mount operations in the event of a conflict in Taiwan or the South China Sea." The post-Duterte Philippines gives me hope for post-Erdogan Turkey.
Huh: "The nation that went to the gates of Moscow in World War II has become as aggressive as a cuddly cat. But with its decision to send Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine, Germany's 'culture of reticence,' particularly with respect to Russia, may soon be a thing of the past." Could still go either way.
Oh? "The most stunning geopolitical surprise of the past year is how poorly the Russian military has been fighting in Ukraine." I did not make that mistake. Hell, rare skeptic that I was, even I thought Russia could bulldoze its way to the Dnieper River. To be fair, Putin wrecked the ground forces that might have accomplished that with his initial "parade" strategy.
I've recently noted that Ukraine has failed to launch a major counteroffensive and that the time of that strike keeps getting pushed back. This is exactly what I worried about three months ago: "Ukraine has the initiative southeast of Kharkov and on the Kherson front, but I don't see much in the way of breaking the Russians or taking territory. I worry that Ukraine can't afford to let this stalemate drag on without risking defeat."
Nuclear micro-reactors for space travel! I'm so old I remember when micro-aggressions were a thing. Tip to Instapundit.
As Russia gets closer to repairing the Kerch Strait bridge, I wonder what Ukraine has planned to hit it again.
Democratic insanity on police issues is demoralizing. Many years ago I expressed my concerns about over-militarizing our police (which seems to be the flip side of the police-ification of our military). There was room for common ground. Not now, it seems. The left has gone nuts.
That seems like a wise defensive SIGINT move. I'm so old that I remember when suggesting that was racist, or something.
Drone-mounted RPG-7 warheads. Huh. Innovative. Is it really a significant means of destroying armored vehicles? The drone would have to be pretty big, wouldn't it?
From artificial intelligence (AI) to insufficient intelligence (II) in only a month. Impressive. Tip to Instapundit.
This seems like government theft. Tip to Instapundit.
American weapons left to the Taliban in Afghanistan showed up with Pakistan-supported forces in Indian-controlled Kashmir. Ah, blowback. Could be Taliban policy. Could be people stealing them and selling them for personal profit.
America may have used the "Ginsu" people-chopper warhead in Somalia.
Four American F-35s deployed to the Thule, Greenland air base for the first time.
Ukraine is fighting for its life, so I imagine it will ignore Human Rights Watch's complaint that Ukraine is using banned mines in its fight against Russia.
America will reinforce its air power in South Korea.
Strategypage thinks China will not invade Taiwan because of the difficulty of invading and because of the economic blowback. Russia's invasion of Ukraine reinforces that. I don't know. Maybe all that is true. Or maybe the civilized Chinese think they'd do better than those Russian steppe barbarians. And maybe China thinks isolating Russia is one thing. But nobody would dare--or could afford to--isolate great China.
True: "China, the only real threat to Russia, quietly makes progress in the east. There China has claims on much of the Russian Far East and is openly replacing Russia as the primary economic, military and political force in Central Asia."
I admit that our policy of hoping China's economic growth will encourage democracy there can be described as not working--yet: "Decades of rapid economic growth made China the second largest economy on the planet and dependent on foreign trade to keep the Chinese economy thriving. Those decades of economic growth also created China’s first significant middle class. There are now several hundred million educated and affluent middle-class Chinese who are essential to the continued success of the Chinese economy. Chinese leaders never before had to deal with something like this."
Subliminal invasion: "Chinese coast guard ships once more chased Japanese fishing boats away from the Japanese Senkaku Islands."
A new American assistance package for Ukraine will include the Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb.
Providing Ukraine with fighter planes is gaining traction in NATO.
Compare and contrast in the Winter War of 2022.
No worries. What could possibly go wrong! "US Navy warships have seen fewer days at sea since 2011 because vessels are breaking down more frequently than expected and taking longer to repair[.]"
Just in time for the early retirement of many of the troubled LCS: "The U.S. Navy is close to declaring initial operational capability on its second and final Littoral Combat Ship mission package, the mine countermeasures package[.]"
No! Way! "'Russia is not complying with its obligation under the New START Treaty to facilitate inspection activities on its territory,' a State Department spokesperson told The Hill."
Iran seems to think Ukraine was involved in that drone attack on an Iranian military factory. Iran is supplying Russia with weapons to attack Ukrainian cities. Ukraine certainly has the motive.
Birds of a feather, bank together (via Instapundit): "A top Iranian official announced on 30 January that Iran and Russia had
integrated their interbank communication and transfer systems to help
enhance trade and financial operations in an effort to bypass strict
economic sanctions on their financial infrastructure." And now for something completely different:
You already know Hulu's 1619 Project series is BS from the name alone.
Unless Iran is shipping dangerous people or supplies to Latin America or is planning to blow up one of their ships in the Panama Canal, the Iranian "flotilla" in the Western Hemisphere bores me. There's no point and no chance it could survive for long if there was war.
The French intercepted Iranian weapons and supplies heading by sea from Iran to Yemen.
Centralizing power is always wrong. Eventually. So yeah, from the beginning. Tip to Instapundit.
The U.S reopened its Solomon Islands embassy which was closed after the Cold War. To counter China.
The short and glorious operation that Putin planned became a near-peer war.
House Democrats who believe one of their colleagues is an insurrectionist object to him publicly pledging his allegiance to the flag and the republic for which it stands. To be fair, they routinely recite that pledge ...
Europe is pulling its weight supporting Ukraine despite the focus on high-profile military aid that America supplies. And of course, Europeans are suffering more than Americas with the effects of the war (admittedly made worse by their own bad energy policies that America hasn't fully embraced yet).
How the cloak of science wielded by the Expert Class disguised their policy preferences, undermined public trust in actual science--and killed people during the pandemic. It will be interesting to have an assessment of net lives saved/lost due to the policies implemented. Tip to Instapundit.
It is interesting that in joint America-Israel air exercises that the stealth fighters conducted SEAD ground strikes while the 4th generation fighters took on the air-to-air combat role to clear the way for non-stealthy ground strikes. When it is all-stealth, all the time, you might go right to step 3 ground strikes using stealth planes. Also, totally not directed at Iran.
Putin has the power to keep Russians in line as he demands they sacrifice treasure and blood for his glory: "According to official statistics, the proportion of social payments in the real incomes of the population is greater now than it was in Soviet times." Ford was right. A government with the power to give you everything you need has the power to take away everything you need.
This is a result of Putin's invasion of Ukraine: "Russia’s image has not taken such a battering since the days of Stalin. The Soviet Union in its later years had a lot more global respect than Russia does now." Cold War admiration for Moscow in America has been reversed by the Democratic Party's sudden change of heart.
George Santos has a point that he's little different than Biden in truthfulness. The biggest difference is that Santos doesn't have a friendly media that reacts to his lies by saying with exasperation and a grin, "Oh, that George!" Santos pledges not to lie in the future. He said that his wife, Morgan Fairchild--who he's slept with--vouches for him.
An interesting aside to the Winter War of 2022 is that Russian forces are fighting to capture control of Sacco i Vanzetti village north of Bakhmut. Sacco and (i) Vanzetti were anarchists executed in the United States and honored by the USSR when it controlled Ukraine.
I remain convinced that masks can be helpful against viruses depending on type of mask, user skill, virus threat level, and time in the threat area. But I could be persuaded that I am wrong. But meta-studies affect me not one bit. Don't trust them. Let's mix together ice cream and dog poo, and see whether the result is mostly one or the other! I certainly think mask mandates aren't effective.
Qatar now has an amphibious warfare LPD. Which is useful for projecting ground forces to the Horn of Africa to help allies or to capture Iranian-held islands in the Persian Gulf along with their GCC allies.
India is boosting weapons procurement "mainly" from domestic arms producers. Good luck with that. We'll see how much is wasted from corruption and bureaucratic inertia. It's a hard path to weapon self-sufficiency in India.
The United States is ramping up its efforts against ISIL across Iraq and Syria. The jihadis still hate us. Officially we have 2,500 troops in Iraq and 900 in eastern Syria to work with local allies. As a rule, I don't think that counts special forces. And you can be creative with overlapping rotations. Definitions matter.
Ukraine believes Russia will soon attack with 500,000 troops. We'll see if the result is as bad as this time an invader relied on numbers. The Russian army won't be great. But I worry it will be good enough. I doubt it. But I worry that Russia has equipped the army with weapons and leaders better than I think it can.
Dispatches from the "Well, Duh" files: "The government’s watchdog for Afghanistan reconstruction said Thursday that the Taliban is growing ever more oppressive, and lawmakers need to consider whether too many U.S. aid dollars are ending up in their hands." I say let Pakistan and its new friend China pay for Pakistan's Taliban friends.
The armored fighting vehicles heading to Ukraine from the West. I'd like to add that the French AMX-10 heavy armored car is not really a tank killer. It has an older 105mm cannon and that cannon is, if memory serves me, a lower velocity version of the guns that were once standard for NATO tanks.
The Fewer People's Republic of China: "The United Nations has estimated that if China's birth rate remains at its super-low level and the country fails to position itself as an attractive destination for migrants, the country will lose nearly half of its population by the end of this century, a contraction of roughly 700 million people." China has lost its window of opportunity.
The report is that Biden offered Putin 20% of Ukraine to end the war. Russia and Ukraine rejected the proposal. The Biden administration denies the offer. Tip to PJ Media. It would likely be a bad idea.
How the Fuck-Up Fairy crippled Pakistan. FUF has one more big play to make. Well, two, I suppose. If you count the nukes.
For a long time, the Korean War was seen as a defeat or at best a draw. And here we are today with South Korea the arsenal of democracy. Time changes assessments: "When I was in college, I thought of the Korean War a draw given that South Korea was an autocracy still modernizing. Now with South Korea a democratic and advanced nation, I call that war a victory."
The U.S. is monitoring a Chinese spy balloon over the northwest United States. Odd. China doesn't have satellites? Sure, the balloon is lower. But still. What sensor does China think is valuable? Here's a press conference on the issue. Canada is monitoring a second suspected Chinese balloon. We don't want to shoot it down over the U.S. I hope we down it--preferably capturing it--when it is over the Great Lakes or the Atlantic by the time this post publishes. Or, and I'm aghast this didn't occur to me initially, we are vacuuming up a lot of signals intelligence from the craft. This isn't something that works me up. Although we should have the ability to shoot this down before it crosses into our air space. And now for something completely different:
Turkey, the problem child. Can't live with them. Can't live without them. Congress is often useful as the "bad cop" to the president's "good cop" when dealing with difficult allies. We have to ride out Erdogan's reign.
The GLSDB paired with HIMARS adapted to fire them will extend Ukraine's rocket range to nearly 100 miles. I remain perplexed that Ukraine can't build longer-range missiles given their arms production role in the former USSR.
Ukraine's need for NATO support to fight Russia does not de-legitimize Ukraine's fight. Remember how much support NATO needed from America to fight civil war-wracked Libya more than a century ago.
Russia is apparently running out of prisoners for Wagner to recruit. It was a two-fer of killing off criminals to kill Ukrainians, even if the ratio was highly unfavorable to Russia in lives. So now Russia is threatening to send people to prison with the alternative of serving in the war offered.
Germany's defense industry could send dozens of old Leopard I tanks to Ukraine. The tanks, while superior to the contemporary American M-60 series, is fast but lightly armored and uses an old 105mm cannon. Which adds another ammunition type needed.
Nearly a year into the war, Russia announces a wonder weapon to destroy Ukrainian tanks. Stack them with the rest of the wonder weapons. Oh, and also fear the great Russian Marker!
Are the Russians drugging troops to get them to attack? Possible. The World War II Eastern Front was horrific and the Germans distributed drugs while the Russians provide alcohol.
Germany wants a homeland missile defense shield. That's helpful given its role as a reception and staging point for American reinforcements to Europe.
It's a second navy that can do a lot off of China's coast: "The increasingly powerful Chinese coast guard has boosted its presence to an unprecedented level in the disputed waters of the South China Sea, a new report alleged." And yeah, in "peacetime" it can carry out intimidation campaigns without the immediate help of gray navy hulls.
Another analysis of the Winter War of 2022 that essentially urges us to "let the Wookie win." And the analysis fails on its Korean War analogy. America provoked China to intervene to save North Korea when the Russia-instigated North Korean invasion was thrown back to the Yalu River. Is the author suggesting the People's Volunteer Army 2.0 will save Russia if Ukraine reunites its own country?
Another American security assistance package for Ukraine. It sounds like this package includes GLSDBs with a range exceeding the normal HIMARS rockets, if recent news is accurate.
Is Germany seriously thinking about restoring conscription? Well, the volunteers aren't working out, are they?
And now for something completely different:
The news media is dead to me. The news media joined The Science! in destroying its credibility with partisan advocacy and even lies. The news media at least had a chance to redeem its reputation with "fact checkers." But rather than use that new feature (to do what all the news media is supposed to do) to rehabilitate the reputation of the news media, the news media used the illusion of a "fact-checking" bastion of objectivity to continue their partisan advocacy and lies a little longer. Their employees can learn to code or make frothy coffee drinks, for all I care. Tip to Instapundit.
Ukraine prepares for a renewed Russian offensive out of Belarus--just in case. Obstacles, mines, and defensive works to slow down the Russians (and Belarusians?), inflict casualties, and otherwise let fewer Ukrainian troops hold the line initially. With watching Belarus across the border. I'm sure NATO is helping with the deep observation.
Dances With Tenure. Tip to Instapundit.
The U.S. shot down that Chinese surveillance balloon off the coast of South Carolina on Saturday. Fighter aircraft did the job. We'll see if we recover it.
The British military is in worse shape than I thought. I was worried about the Royal Navy. Now I'm not sure the entire British military has more than a carrier task force, practically speaking. Mind you, having no self-propelled artillery in Britain is not the same as having none. And Britain won't fire at Ukrainian rates. Still ... Tip to Instapundit.
