Taiwan wants to learn from Ukraine's successes against Russia's invasion force. Taiwan is learning valuable things. But Taiwan is ignoring the biggest lesson: their enemy will keep coming.
Taiwan was impressed with how Ukraine defeated the Russian 2022 invasion, but Taiwanese leaders are still trying to determine how best to translate the Ukrainian experience into something Taiwan can use. The missing element appears to be the military training Ukrainians underwent between 2015 and 2021. This was in reaction to the Russian seizure of Crimea and some of eastern Ukraine in 2014. The unexpected rapid mobilization of Ukrainian troops persuaded the Russians to agree to a ceasefire that lasted until 2022. During the ceasefire Ukraine reformed, retained and rearmed its military. That’s what Taiwan is now doing. The first step was to increase conscript service from three to twelve months. Next came changes to the training conscripts receive. The new training program concentrates on teaching Taiwanese to fight effectively using proven training techniques used by Western nations and now by Ukraine as well.
I've long worried about how well trained the Taiwanese ground forces are trained, as I noted in this post.
Taiwan can indeed learn a lot about tactics, equipment, and training. I'd really like them to (tip to Instapundit) invest in Starlink communications, for example.
And the U.S. says it has learned some lessons to apply to Taiwan.
But the biggest lesson for Taiwan and America regarding the defense of Taiwan is not mentioned. A year into Russia's invasion of Ukraine and despite Ukrainian victories, Russia still holds huge chunks of important Ukrainian territory. And despite massive human and material losses, Russia is renewing its offensive.
That is the lesson.
I believe that if China's invasion force isn't ejected from Taiwan that this in effect would be a Chinese victory:
"Stalemate" between U.S. and Chinese ground forces after three weeks means 30+ PLA battalions remain on the island. That's a problem, as I argued in Military Review. If the U.S. really thinks it won the war because the PLA was stalemated short of conquering Taiwan, we are seriously mistaken. Ending the war with stalemate on Taiwan means China has won the war.
And as I explored later when the report came out that I could examine directly, the definition in the wargames I was commenting about defined a "stalemate" in a way that actually represents a Chinese victory:
In any of the stalemate scenarios, I believe the result should be coded as a Chinese victory. Given the high American casualties predicted, raise your hand if you think America will support a fight to drive the nuclear-armed Chinese into the sea--even in the "stalemate, trending against China" measure--when Taiwan continuing as a political entity in the short run can be defined as victory. Or at least defined as not a defeat.
I think China holding a significant bridgehead regardless of the trend signifies a Chinese victory. Eventually a ceasefire will take hold, whether or not it is official. And then China will build up its forces on Taiwan for months or years until it can resume the invasion. Or until the threat of a resumed overland invasion undermines Taiwan's resolve to resist their giant neighbor.
We must, I argued, prepare Taiwan's military to drive the PLA into the sea; and if necessary plan to use heavy American ground forces to help with the mission. Never agree to a ceasefire with China still on Taiwan.
Consider that Russia's 2022 invasion was Russia's third invasion of Ukraine. Russia seized Crimea in 2014 and captured territory in the Donbas in 2014 and 2015 which were used to build staging areas for the 2022 invasion. You might say that Russia's mobilization and preparation for a second Big Push in early 2023 is the fourth invasion.
That's what China would do even if it took years to carry out. And Taiwan does not have the depth of Ukraine to absorb territorial losses without losing the ability to effectively resist. That's the most important lesson that Taiwan can learn from Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Still, despite this massive failure to identify the crucial lesson of ejecting the Chinese invaders, one major lesson absorbed that is good for Taiwanese morale is the real-world example that resistance is not futile.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
