The logic of nuclear deterrence and not Biden is ultimately responsible for Asian allies' worries about America's nuclear umbrella.
America’s extended nuclear deterrent has always rested on credibility. Credibility is one of those intangible factors in international relations that can mean the difference between peace and war and victory or defeat. Credibility is sort of like obscenity — it is difficult to define, but you know it when you see it. America’s credibility is based in part on how other countries — friends and foes — assess our words, actions, capabilities, and intentions. And right now, America’s credibility under the Biden administration in the Indo-Pacific — especially the credibility of our extended nuclear guarantees in the Western Pacific — is in doubt.
South Korea and Japan want extra reassurance, whether from American nukes on their soil to thinking about their own nukes. They are mostly worried about North Korea. But I assume China with a larger long-range arsenal is also a growing concern. Nuclear-armed Russia isn't really a nuclear threat to South Korea or Japan, really. Russia has enough problems to worry about.
Aside from whatever effect Biden has had on allied thinking, this development was fully predictable as I wrote about ten years ago:
But what happens when North Korea does have long-range missiles armed with nuclear warheads that can reach US territory? If Guam, Alaska, and Hawaii are within range of North Korean nuclear missiles, one of two things happen. ...
The other thing that might happen if North Korea gets the ability to strike our soil with nukes is that our allies will lose the confidence that we will stand with them if North Korea nukes them. If North Korea nukes South Korea or Japan and still retains nuclear weapons that can hit America, would [we] retaliate for the strikes on South Korea or Japan and risk North Korea penetrating our thin missile defenses to attack us?
Even if we absolutely would, how sure can South Korea or Japan be that we would?
So if our allies lose faith in our willingness to stand with them in the face of a nuclear North Korea, our allies gain an incentive to acquire nuclear weapons themselves so that they have a deterrence against North Korean nukes.
And we lose the consequence-free option of openly demonstrating our capabilities to reassure our allies because it will also rattle nuclear-armed North Korea. So allies don't get that reassurance that keeps them calm.
Extended nuclear deterrence, which we've promised to keep many allies from going nuclear over the last 60 years, will weaken once we are vulnerable to nuts with nukes. Even Britain and France weren't fully convinced we'd trade New York City for London or Paris. The Germans sure weren't sure about our willingness to trade New York City for Bonn. Only a Nazi legacy kept them from going nuclear, I imagine. That and our longer range nukes placed in western Europe later in the Cold War probably reassured many Europeans that Russia would not refrain from hitting America if American nukes in Europe hit Soviet targets within the USSR.
Nuclear proliferation will be out of the bottle. If even near-stone age North Korea can develop nukes, the advanced countries of South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan could, too. China already has nukes, of course. Vietnam won't want to be left out of that club. Thailand, Singapore, and Indonesia might feel lonely without nukes, too. Even Australia might not want to be the only major country outside the Asian nuclear club.
In a later post I wonder how China--which enjoyed having it's little pet rabid dog pursuing nukes--will really enjoy North Korea having nukes. It's almost like China can't look ahead.
But the future arrived. China spent decades enjoying their little pet psycho scaring the West with nukes. China provided material support for that. And condemned South Korea and Japan for building missile defenses. And now South Korea mentions it might need nukes. And Japan might follow.
China had an "Oops, we effed up" moment and now admits that North Korean nuclear weapons are a problem. Will China end the North Korean nuclear threat?
So here we are. Have a super sparkly day. It would be easy to just blame Biden. But I can't in good conscience.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
