Sure, China enjoyed how their little pet psycho, North Korea, gave South Korea, Japan, and America fits with their nuclear program. Oh, how they laughed and laughed!
You'd think this missile test would be especially hilarious in Peking:
While Pyongyang is prone to exaggeration, its boast of having all of the United States in range was in line with experts’ calculations that the missile launched Wednesday, which flew 10 times higher than the International Space Station, could theoretically reach Washington, D.C.
America has extended our nuclear umbrella to Japan and South Korea. But that was always an easy pledge for America to make--and for Japan and South Korea to trust--as long as America is not threatened.
With America soon (even with the latest launch, with an actual warhead the missile might not reach Washington, D.C.) to be under threat with only a thin missile shield to stop the threat, Japan and South Korea have reason to build their own deterrent against North Korean nukes in case America can be bullied into passivity after North Korea nukes Japan or South Korea if North Korea threatens to then hit America if we retaliate.
Deterrence works both ways.
So if China does nothing and North Korea fields a nuclear arsenal, South Korea and Japan--which has been nuked twice already (yes, by America, but that was before nukes were truly appreciated as more than really big bombs--and Japan did attack us, and the nukes probably saved lives by avoiding blockade or invasion), uniquely in the world, will go nuclear.
Is this still fun for China?
And if those two states break the nuclear threshold, I'd expect Vietnam to go nuclear, too, just in case.
And I wouldn't rule out Taiwan or Australia joining the club.
How's that for a fun environment for China? America, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Australia might all have nuclear weapons. None are allies of China.
And even Russia is no real ally. Nor is North Korea, really. And if North Korea has nukes they may feel less need to submit to China.
Seriously, is China having fun yet?
And India already has nukes. That's an awful lot of countries near China with nuclear weapons and China seriously seems to think that pushing them around is a good idea.
That is seriously not a fun situation to be in the middle of (and yes, I can end a sentence with a preposition now).
I still think that America (and this is just a hunch) is gearing up to attack North Korea with a serious air and missile campaign early next year. But we'd hold off if China deals with the problem before then.
I don't think China really wants America to demonstrate that much power so close to China with the implication that China couldn't police their own border region.
Nor do I think China really wants to issue enough threats to keep America from acting, given the proliferation path that North Korea's successful achievement of full nuclear weapons state would start.
No path is great for China. But invading North Korea or overthrowing Kim with a coup are the least bad path.
Yes, China gets a lot of the cost of reviving that poverty-ravaged state; but it stops the proliferation train from leaving the North Korean station and forestalls American and equally modern South Korean military units approaching the Yalu River.
And while I am not at all eager for China to control North Korea, I'm less eager to have a nuclear North Korea threatening us and our allies; and selling nukes to Iran. You have to choose the least bad option that you have, eh?
Oh, and in completely unrelated new:
Russian marines have practiced landing operations at its border with North Korea, following Pyongyang’s controversial missile launch test this week, the military said. Russian naval infantry servicemen and the crews of Russia’s Pacific Fleet ships Admiral Nevelskoy and Peresvet, carried out a swift, amphibious charge on a beachhead in the Primorye region, Russia’s only one to border North Korea.
Could I under-estimate what is possible? Could a partition of North Korea be under discussion? That would share the war and post-war costs. (In related gulag system with a UN seat news, Strategypage takes a tour of recent news.)
That's my highly speculative view. How much fun does China really want?
