Tuesday, December 19, 2017

Capabilities Approach Intent Every Day

China isn't poised to launch a credible invasion of Taiwan as a bolt from the blue (unless China has been preparing for such a contingency over the course of this year, which I assume we'd detect), but that is their intention.

Well that's a bloody giveaway:

A threat by a senior Chinese diplomat to invade Taiwan the instant any U.S. warship visits the self-ruled island has sparked a war of words, with Taipei accusing Beijing of failing to understand what democracy means.

China considers Taiwan to be a wayward province and has never renounced the use of force to bring it under its control. The United States has no formal ties with Taiwan but is bound by law to help it defend itself and is its main source of arms.

Congress has authorized visits by the Navy to Taiwan, and by the Taiwanese navy to American ports.

I rather doubt that would provoke an invasion unless China had prepared and was looking for a pretext.

But I have long believed China could carry out an invasion if they are willing to pay the price despite the small Chinese marine force and the long-obsolete "million-man swim" mockery.

The Navy could declare some type of health or ship emergency for a warship sailing nearby, just to get a foot in the door without provoking a reaction. China would look bad if they complained about a humanitarian issue.

But remember, whether or not China will invade Taiwan anytime soon or in response to any ship visit, invading Taiwan (and holding the American Navy and Air Force at bay while they do it) is the core capability that China's military modernization has aimed to achieve.