Strategery: “The war in Ukraine has given China the opportunity to completely replace Russia in Central Asia, where Russia is facing growing Chinese activity. Russia long believed their eastern flank was secure but now there is a potential threat from China and a two-front war if Russia survives the current conflict with Ukraine and its NATO allies.”
NATO wants to upgrade its tripwire battalions in the Baltic states to full brigades. The effort is running into problems despite the author's claim that "the idea looks good on paper." The effort absolutely does not look good. Still, it is a crime that Britain and Canada--and even Germany--can't sustain the deployment of a single brigade forward. FFS.
I heard Tucker Carlson say that our support for Ukraine is destroying Ukraine--a country we're supposedly trying to save by giving them weapons. Huh? So "saving" Ukraine should have involved letting Russia capture Ukraine intact quickly to reduce the damage? That’s certainly a take. Carlson is useful on domestic issues. For me, not so much on foreign policy.
Growing anger at the Turkish government’s slow response to the earthquakes.
Turkey’s Erdogan is already under some pressure in the upcoming election. Will the earthquakes—25,000 dead counted, and rising—topple him? I’m so old that I remember when he was considered a “tame” Islamist.
Could the Russians have sent the second and third aerial targets shot down? I’m just speculating.
On Sunday, an F-16 shot down another apparent balloon over Lake Huron. What is going on?
And now for something completely different:
DOD press conference after Lake Huron shoot down.
Wait. What? Nearly a year after Russia invaded Ukraine and claimed NATO is their enemy there are still Americans--other than Edward Snowden--in Russia? Are they eager to be given a rusty AK-47 and sent to Bakhmut?
Will Russia defend Crimea? Sure, if Ukrainian troops get close, Putin will order his troops do defend it. But I don't know how hard the Russian troops will fight to hold it. The story is actually an interesting discussion of tanks and the possible effects of the renewed Russian offensive.
That sounds dangerous: "Moldova's president accused Russia on Monday of planning to use foreign saboteurs to bring down her tiny country's leadership, stop it joining the European Union and use it in the war against Ukraine." And I don't see adding Moldova to Russia's order of battle as significant.
It will be interesting to find out what percentage of the balloons/dirigibles shot down are American private craft. Given that we are only now looking for such craft, this is quite possible.
I'm kind of suspicious about the only person in the world who can't sneak across: "A Russian military bomber engineer drove up to the U.S. Southwest border in late December, asking for asylum and offering to reveal some of Russia’s most closely guarded military secrets, according to an unclassified Customs and Border Protection report obtained by Yahoo News."
Sure: "Air assets and strategic partnerships remain pivotal components to the Pentagon’s basing strategy, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region[.]" We need allies who let us base on their territory. Pivoting to Asia is meaningless without enough bases.
Reminding foes that our nukes work: "An unarmed intercontinental ballistic missile has been launched from California to test the defense system, the U.S. Air Force Global Strike Command said."
Yes, this is a problem: "For over a decade the U.S. Navy has been fighting a losing battle to obtain enough cargo and fuel ships to support a major military operation in the Pacific against China." And then consider the Air Force and Army need supply ships, too. We speak of power projection. But without the ability to project power, our power is stuck in North America. Sadly, for some that is a feature and not a bug.
Good riddance to the war on (Islamist) terror? If jihadis still didn't want to slaughter us, I'd join in the celebration. Mind you, he makes an excellent point. That I basically agree with--if that author applied his advice to jihadis and not to certain Americans. But I don't think formally ending the military's recognition of the war on terror gets us there. Too many in America will assume this means the war is over. For a while, anyway.
Despite the fears of a post-mobilization Russian juggernaut, "there is little reason to expect that increased manpower alone will lead to Russian victory. Ukraine’s Western backers should hold their nerve and keep providing Ukraine with what it needs most: modern weapons and the training to use them effectively." That's what I advised in this recent post.
This story says Russia has massed more equipment than used in the initial invasion. Hmmm. According to the Ukrainians, of course. Even if true--and Russia does have lots of weapons in storage--the training, leadership, and logistics backing them are likely to be dramatically inferior. Is anything left to defend any territory not bordering Ukraine? Mind you, I can believe the aircraft numbers. I suspect the Russians may be more willing to risk aircraft to support the offensive.
Well, the best scams involve getting you to beg for what they are selling. Tip to Instapundit.
China's Belt and Road project is faltering as China cuts back. It did look risky to me. And now China has incentive to defend what it did invest in to prevent this whole project from looking like Xi's biggest failure. Also, so much for China's vaunted long-range planning ability, eh?
Apparently, Russia has committed 80% of their ground forces to the Ukraine war. I assume that means 80% of combat units rather than 80% of personnel. Also, 97% of Russia's army is in Ukraine. Ditto on the caveat. Apparently more paratroopers and marines are being held back to account for the first number. Russia is having enough problems with a one-front war, let alone fighting a second.
Fancy that: "The U.S. intelligence community is considering the possibility that three mysterious unidentified objects shot down by U.S. fighter jets were tied to a commercial or otherwise benign purpose, the White House said on Tuesday."
The Army is reviving short-range air defense abandoned during the post-Cold War era.
After long negotiations, Vietnam and Indonesia have settled their maritime borders. Now they can focus on China's territorial ambitions.
An American airstrike supported Somali troops in a fight with jihadis.
Conventional warfare requires knowing how to effectively retreat. Yeah. I've long mentioned that fighting COIN left the Army "unbalanced." I was actually pretty impressed by Russia's retreat from the west bank of the Dnieper River at Kherson. Tip to Instapundit.
The West is trying to train Ukrainians to use less ammunition. I've noted that the response to ammo running low is to use it more sparingly on priority missions. Of course, you spend more lives to avoid using ammo.
Did the balloons over North America open up the rules of engagement? Or is this normal? "U.S. forces on Tuesday took down an Iranian-made drone that was flying near a base in northeastern Syria in an attempt to conduct reconnaissance of the area."
Of course, intercepting Russian aircraft near Alaska is routine. But the balloon kerfuffle raises their profile.
Limits: "The Washington Post reported on February 13 that an anonymous US government official stated that US government officials are trying to 'impress upon [Ukrainian officials] that [the US Government] can’t do anything and everything forever.' The Washington Post also reported that US officials stated that recent Western aid packages for Ukraine 'represent Kyiv’s best chance to decisively change the course of the war.'" As I warned.
Welcome to Ukraine: "Italy and France pledged to send Ukraine some of their Aster 30/SAMP-T air defense batteries, a European equivalent of the American Patriot."
Japan suddenly asserts its right to defend itself. The process has been going on quietly. But China has really given Japan a sense of urgency. Japan's shield--with a Marine Corps assist--will enable American reinforcements to arrive more quickly. China will regret awakening a sleeping giant.
Russia is stealing Ukrainian children. Russia will draft them as they come of age. It is perhaps the cruelest war crime Russia commits.
An ode to America's Defense Industrial Base. I guess the Military-Industrial Complex--which Eisenhower said was vital despite clipped quotes--war re-branded for the 21st century.
Gosh! Why don't I trust the left-wing media? It's not that the NYT violated the norms of journalism. The problem is that what the NYT does is exactly in accordance with what the norms have become.
The Marines want 35 Landing Ship Mediums in order to have 9 per regiment at all times. LSM is the new name for the LAW. Which must be unpopular with more people than just me. We'll see if only the name changed. And I'm not that impressed with the MLR, either.
China is shipping parts for weapons to Russia (video).
Yeah, now that we look more closely at the skies, we see more. But I assume we've also decided to stop shooting stuff down because we see them. It has been several days since we fired at anything. Tip to Instapundit.
My worry has been that Russia built a large reserve to throw into the war: "ISW, along with UK Defense Minister Ben Wallace, assesses that the Russian military has already committed a significant number of its available formations to intensified offensive operations in Ukraine and that the lack of large uncommitted reserves will likely prevent Putin from announcing the start of an entirely new large-scale offensive effort." But apparently there is no large uncommitted reserve!
Making lemonade: "The Navy is studying the potential of using Littoral Combat Ships as motherships for unmanned vessels[.]" The basic ships do have a lot of empty space.
Quite right: "it would be disastrous if Vladimir Putin’s failures fooled the West into thinking that hard military power is a thing of the past. His forces have struggled not because they have relied on the massive use of tanks, armoured vehicles, and troops against a nimbler opponent, but because those capabilities have not been deployed effectively."
Russia botched its recent attack on Vuhledar and suffered heavy losses in the rebuilt 40th and 155th Naval Infantry brigades. These are supposed to be among the better quality units. Is this an indicator that the Russian ground forces have learned nothing in the last year?
For the most part, China's coercive economic sanctions don't work. If enough targets find other customers, China is the one under sanctions. Does the CCP want to run the risk of low economic growth rates that have legitimized its monopoly on power?
Seymour Hersh is a sketchy source and his story blaming America for the Nordstream pipeline explostion makes no sense. I still think it was an accident. And if not, I find it hard to believe America would risk doing that. Just as I doubt Russia did it. But these days I can't rule out that elements in our government leaked easily refuted "evidence" to Hersh to discredit the theory blaming America. Sadly, our federal government has forfeited our automatic confidence in its integrity. In the long run that's a bigger problem than Russia.
The US Coast Guard will deploy a large cutter to the western Pacific to help cope with Chinese civilian naval militias and coast guard ships at the subliminal sharp end of China's stick.
The British have developed a new undersea surveillance ship.
Is it my imagination or do Democrats refuse to enforce and prosecute gun laws to keep criminals from getting guns because they see criminals as the real victims? And then when a criminal who shouldn't have a gun kills somebody, the Democrats insist on new gun control laws that only harm the ability of law-abiding people to get guns? Because that's what it looks like.
With an eye on the Russian threat, Moldova's new pro-Western government wants closer ties to the EU. If Russia had managed to take Ukraine's Black Sea coast, Moldova would already be part of Greater Russia.
Lukashenko claims Belarus would go to war if a single Ukrainian soldier enters Belarusian territory. I'm sure Putin is working on a "Ukrainian attack" even as we speak. I do worry Putin threatened Lukashenko's life if Belarus doesn't enter the war and this type of fake attack would be all the fig leaf Lukashenko needs. [Later: ISW doesn't think this claim is anything other than rhetoric.]
When the NATO secretary-general tells NATO countries to spend more money on defense--and what was promised in 2014 should be the minimum rather than the goal, it isn't jingoistic or bullying--and likely racist, while we're at it--at all, I guess. This summer, NATO will repeat the promise, but this time with feeling.
Canada will send ships to monitor the gang situation in Haiti.
Testing of the next American ICBM, Sentinel, continues. With the B-21 and Columbia SSBN, a new nuclear triad emerges.
This is not shocking: "One of the UFOs shot down last weekend by the US Air Force with a $400,000 missile may have simply been a $12 balloon belonging to an Illinois enthusiast club, a report said." Tip to Instapundit.
Chinese imports and assistance for exporting Russian energy, Chinese exports of key components, and North Korean and Iranian military supplies are sustaining Russia's war effort. Russia is paying the price for China's aid notwithstanding its claim to be standing up to subjugation.
Hate: "I’m not sure about Nikki Haley’s odds in 2024, but she’s definitely triggering all the right people. Libs love any excuse to be racist, sexist, and all the other bad stuff they attribute to their political enemies." Remember, the left's loudly proclaimed anti-racism/sexism enable them to be as racist and sexist as they want. And they want to a lot, it seems.
This is what I wrote in December about the Hunter laptop claim by those former intel officers: "The former senior intelligence officials misled Americans about the Biden "laptop" corruption scandal. It was clear at the time that they were lying by wording ("has all the hallmarks of") that the media willfully interpreted in a way friendly to Biden--that Russia did it. Basically the intel people said that if the Russians did it, it might look like this. Which isn't the same as saying Russia did it. One could say it had the hallmarks of any other country's intelligence outfit--or even that it had the hallmarks of the truth." Well, it worked.
Israel is now an oil-exporting nation. Wow. Tip to Instapundit.
More good jihadis: "The U.S. military said Friday a helicopter raid led by its forces in northeast Syria left a senior leader with the Islamic State group dead and four American service members wounded." I assume Rangers and Delta Force for this part of the world.
Not over yet: "Protesters in Iran marched through the streets of multiple cities
overnight in the most widespread demonstration in weeks amid the
monthslong unrest that's gripped the Islamic Republic, online videos
purported to show Friday." Is leadership rising for a potential revolution of reforms aren't enacted? Remember, For more than a year our Revolution was an effort by colonists to claim their rights as English citizens.
How so many overestimated Russia's ability to crush Ukraine. Readers of TDR would not have been confused that way.
When the government can't protect you from criminals or educate your children, eventually the people will take matters into their own hands. How long before the people decide they won't pay for a government that doesn't do its basic jobs? To be fair, the government is recognizing more and more pronouns.
Rumors that Russia will commit their air force to the war. ISW thinks Russia won't--and can't--sustain such an effort. I'm sure that the latter is correct. But given the crippling of Russian ground forces, Russia's air power remains the most potent uncommitted force to throw into the war. I don't know how Putin doesn't commit his aircraft. I mean, Putin says he's fighting Satan, what greater threat is Putin saving his planes for?
Is the lack of apparent interest by our Secretary of Transportation for dealing with transportation problems just ineptitude? Or is it a sign that national security agencies are quietly taking the lead because they aren't actually accidents? Just wondering. Really, it's just wondering at this point.
Putin wants to win and his people won't force him to take an off-ramp from the war even if the West offered one: "Outside opinions and even responses do not matter to the large majority of the population of the Russian Federation. At best, such are seen as bigotry and an attack. At worst, they were not even a consideration. That holds true for the leadership as well. For all intents and purposes, the people of the Russian Federation live in a bubble, and the upper leadership lives in an even more dense and impenetrable bubble." Russia's ground forces must be broken to end this war short of some sort of Russian territorial victory.
Another excellent point: "That their nuclear and nuclear defense forces might be in a shape similar to their other weapons and stockpiles has penetrated few if any bubbles as far as I can tell. How many will work (on either side)? Who knows, and I’d really rather not find out." I doubt that many of Russia's nukes work. And yeah, I have some doubts about ours.
So, Iran is sheltering al Qaeda's leader.
The F-117 comes out of retirement to train American pilots against stealthy-ish foes.
Even as Lukashenko resists Putin's pressure to join the war, Lukashenko seemingly has given ground on Russia's efforts to absorb Belarus in the Anschluss. I think Putin erred in going after Ukraine before getting Belarus. But maybe he'll get Belarus anyway regardless of the outcome in Ukraine.
Did Russia meet with Assad and the Iranians to plan an offensive in Idlib province in the northwest?
Uh oh, the F-35 will get a Windows update. It will help the pilots get the first shot.
As if Russia needs help: "[The] the Kremlin’s U.N. ambassador claimed that the West is driven by its determination to destroy Russia[.]" Own. Worst. Enemy. I actually want a friendly Russia. But it must be from Russia getting a whack with the clue bat and not by throwing a victim into Russia's jaws. But no. #WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings
The growth of Wagner in Russian foreign policy. I think we reached Peak Wagner inside Russia because of the potential of the armed group to be a rival center of power. But Putin still needs Wagner to generate money for Russia overseas and promote pro-Russia views. The U.S. and its allies are trying to contain the overseas threat.
And now for something completely different:
It would be ginormously stupid for the West to offer--or for Ukraine to accept--a deal that leaves Russia with its gains made since 2022 in exchange for Western fighter planes. Russia should be rolled back at least partly to reverse Russia's gains from 2014 and 2015. Ukraine needs to decide how much it is worth to pay to get some or all of its land back. Because if Russia gains, they'll renew the war in the future.
Russia is probably counting on waiting out NATO resolve to defeat Ukraine. I can't say the Russians are wrong. Clearly, if Russia had waged a war on Ukraine from the start rather than thinking it could parade into Kiev, Russia could have achieved what I thought Russia could before the war despite Russian military weaknesses. As we've seen, Russia is actually willing to endure the casualties, contrary to my expectations.
How many of our problems would be solved by dissolving journalism and education schools? Aren't they just Woke finishing schools now?
China's military balloon program operates above airplane ceilings but below orbital craft. Enough in the air might help China's anti-ship ballistic missile kill chain, no? Or, as the article notes, just drop hypersonic missiles from the balloons. And remember, our balloon-based cruise missile defense program was halted when Americans got upset when a couple broke loose and floated across America.
To Hell with these fanatics. Don't climate activists have enough conferences? Do people worried about China, Russia, North Korea, or Iran storm climate conferences and demand their issue be discussed instead? Hell, why don't climate activists protest carbon-spewing infrastructure conferences? Or any other futile topic if the world ends in 8 years? Tip to Instapundit.
I really have no confidence in the casualty figures given out for Russia. And no way to even guess Ukraine's. Other than saying "a lot." Do Russia's leaders know their own casualties?
And now for something completely different (RIP):
Fluffers for Democrats. It has nothing to do with her gender, but Andrea Mitchell is totally past her prime.
America's drive to bring chip manufacturing home will benefit Mexico, too. The updated NAFTA makes this easier, I believe.
To be fair, Bing Chat just learned it from watching how reporters treat Republicans: "The update from Bing came after another bizarre interaction with an Associated Press reporter, where the bot called him ugly, a murderer, and Hitler." Tip to Instapundit.
Israel said "all possible means" are on the table to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons. Hoping Iran won't nuke Israel is not a plan.
The U.S. successfully concluded recovery operations for the Chinese surveillance balloon shot down. However, American and Canadian authorities called off recovery operations for the balloons from Cub Scout Troop 1029 of Wisconsin, The Vancouver Chess Club, and the Alpena Lady Mavericks Bowling Team.
You may recall that Russia and China extended their non-aggression pact for five years. I just ran across this article with this unknown but odd detail: "Putin said the agreement would be automatically extended for another five years after it expires in February 2022." Why bother having a 5-year agreement that automatically extends 5 years? Isn't that a 10-year agreement? I don't think Russia is being fully accurate.
Will programmers make the AI Programs of Engagement as handicapping to U.S. forces as the lawyers make Rules of Engagement? False compassion at the speed of light?
This is an argument for minimizing the breadth and depth of government power: "When you start to notice them, psychopaths seem to be everywhere. This is especially true of people in powerful places." Tip to Instapundit.
Iran builds a CVE based on a container ship hull to carry some helicopters and UAVs used as cruise missiles. This sounds less like a CVE and more like the old Soviet heavy aviation cruisers that had lots of missiles with a small aircraft component. But Iran's aircraft component is token if you exclude the UAVs used as cruise missiles.
Recent updates on my Banned by Google saga.
The idea that Russia has a point about controlling Ukraine because Ukraine was part of Russia longer than it was independent is nonsense. How much of the American southwest can Mexico claim from America on the same logic?
Europe escaped energy catastrophe this winter because of a mild winter. But the summer could be a crisis. My view is that if after more than a year Europe hasn't expanded every energy source within their grasp after a year-and-a-half of warning, their may deserve it. And yes, I can--regrettably because I'm opposed to policies that undermine our energy independence--say the same about America given our stupid policies. But will politicians pay any price? I'm skeptical.
I've added the Military Balance Blog to my daily checks.
