Putin effed up. Will he pay the price or will Russia?
Perhaps Putin invaded Ukraine at least in part to get a little respect from China in a relationship best described as Russia being China's vassal. That backfired:
Now that the Russian invasion has failed and produced unprecedented economic sanctions, China is making the most of that and forcing Russia to be even more dependent on China. For example, Russia was able to use the Chinese credit card network and a new China controlled international banking system. This system is still small and new members tend to be outlaw states, but it’s a start. Ukraine, which has done a lot of business with China over the last decade, is aware that China could order Russia to halt their invasion and deal with the aftermath via negotiations. It suits China to allow Russia to weaken itself further and become more dependent on China. This is their long-range strategy to defeat Russia and retrieve the Pacific coast territory lost to the Russian monarchy centuries ago. For the moment China goes along with the Russian version of the war, in which Russia is simply defending itself from NATO aggression. China intends to be the only winner in this war and so far, that is happening.
Even if Russia manages to grind out a bloody victory over Ukraine, China won't be impressed. And NATO isn't cowed into passivity. That's what happens when you plan a parade instead of a war with a military you wrongly believe is as capable as your propaganda.
I have to wonder what happens if the paranoia-prone Russians start to imagine a Chinese plot that sent Putin to Moscow to pave the way for China's victory.
Still, this war doesn't have to be a win for China. As long as Russia and America don't use nukes on each other, China could be a loser in the war.
If Russia digs on on hostility to NATO and accepts vassal status under the Chinese, Russia loses. But from the West's point of view, Russia has at least prompted NATO to rearm. Which will free American power for Asia. And that outcome could possibly distract China inland to support their weak vassal. Which could be direct support to Russia or China taking over security in Central Asia from a weakened Russia.
On the other hand, if Russia is shocked by the cost of the war against Ukraine and the stripping away of the facade of "alliance" with China to expose Russia's subservience, maybe Russians will finally get a big enough whack with the clue bat and seek an accommodation with NATO to pivot east to face the real threat to Moscow's empire. Russia is running out of time for that.
NOTE: War coverage continues at this post.
