I read a lot about how Russia's problems in their invasion of Ukraine surely make a Chinese invasion of Taiwan less likely. Maybe. But the war isn't over yet.
If Russia emerges from the war controlling new territory inside Ukraine at the price of fewer than 21,000 dead, that might seem sufficiently encouraging for a Chinese invasion option that involves, as I addressed in Military Review, getting ashore and maintaining a bridgehead before a ceasefire. With final conquest to follow perhaps years later.
And don't forget that the Chinese with their sense of Han superiority may believe they'd do much better than those filthy steppe barbarians managed.
But if we are looking for relevant lessons from Ukraine for Taiwan, I've got one. As NATO works to send Ukraine heavier weapons such as tanks and artillery--and perhaps planes--in order to counter-attack, keep in mind all the pro-"asymmetric weapons" analysis over the years--that I vehemently reject--saying heavy weapons are useless and a waste for Taiwan.
"Asymmetrical" concepts seem to miss the point that any weapon system or type of military unit has weaknesses that another weapon or type of unit must cover. That's why we embrace combined arms within the ground services and jointness between the services. It's rock, paper, scissors.
When I hear about asymmetric defenses, it almost always means that someone thinks that a country can escape the burden of defense spending by some clever device that undermines the enemy's entire expensive arsenal. Just because a country decides to use weapons other than carriers to fight carriers or weapons other than tanks to fight tanks doesn't make them asymmetric. It makes it war.
Those heavier conventional weapons like tanks and artillery are vital for driving the PLA into the sea if it lands on Taiwan.
UPDATE: Doubling down on the "porcupine" asymmetrical strategy for Taiwan.
I'm not against any of the weapons mentioned. But if China endures the casualties its troops will get ashore. If Taiwan can't eject the PLA from its bridgeheads, China wins. And driving the invaders into the sea requires tanks and heavy artillery, things the porcupine people disdain.
NOTE: War updates continue at this post.
