A Russian Nuclear Gamble?

Can Russia escalate to nuclear weapons use with any confidence?

Does Russia plan to use nukes in a war? Assuming the use of nukes will scare enemies into accepting peace on Russian terms? 

[In] 2009, ITAR-TASS, the country’s main official news agency, stated that Russia probably had between 15,000 and 17,000 nuclear weapons. The decay of conventional forces in the decades after the dissolution of the Soviet Union made nuclear weapons more important to Russia’s leaders.

Russia's conventional weakness forces them to rely on nukes. But how do we know their nukes are more well maintained and capable than their conventional military? 

I have serious doubts about whether anything other than a tiny fraction of Russia's 16,000 or so nuclear warheads work. FFS, the Russians apparently weren't able to maintain the tires on their stored military vehicles. 

Indeed, even if Russia knows their nuclear deterrent isn't reliable enough to risk using and exposing it as a paper tiger, Russia might threaten to use them even more strongly, as they've done in the past.

If Putin plans to "escalate [to nukes] to de-escalate [a conventional war after making gains or to avoid defeat]", can he pull it off? Would Russia risk firing a nuke and having it fizzle or hit on their own territory by mistake?

Mind you, I wouldn't invade Russia for any number of non-nuclear reasons. We have no interest in that despite Putin's paranoia. But even if nukes were the only issue and Russia's nukes were shaky, I would not invade. If Russia fired thousands at us, I assume some small fraction will reach us and detonate. And that small fraction would be devastating.

But I think we can lean a little more forward in opposing Russia--in our support of Ukraine, for a relevant example--without unduly worrying that Russia will let the nukes fly. 

UPDATE: This is a timely note of sanity:

Several Putin comments about using nuclear weapons in Ukraine caused a commotion in the military high-command and Putin’s senior advisors. Apparently, Putin’s ability to order the use of nukes has been diminished.

I've mentioned that Russians might not be cool with the nuclear threats.

NOTE: War updates continue on this post.