War coverage continues at the Winter War of 2022 link.
To be fair, firmly in vassal status to China is a "strong" relationship: "Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday said Russia's relations with China were at their strongest level ever[.]"
Pouncing: "Emmanuel Macron led a chorus of disapproval following the US president’s comments, in which he called Vladimir Putin a 'butcher' and insisted the Russian premier 'cannot remain in power'." Do not become confused. Macron wants to exploit this war to weaken NATO for his own glory. Also:
Putin claims to be so worried about Nazis that he must invade to get rid of them. Aaannd Putin sponsors the far right in Europe. Is that what a "self-licking ice cream cone" means?
India's accidental launch of a nuclear-capable missile into Pakistan risked nuclear war. I mentioned the risk of escalation this type of accident poses. Short flight time is a problem. Of course, maybe this exposes that Pakistan has no command and control for its nuclear forces and little ability to see incoming missiles. Adjust your pucker factor, accordingly. The bright side is that China is the target for most of India's nukes because India has conventional military superiority over Pakistan.
Is Ukraine's success in destroying Russian tanks a vindication of the Marine Corps' decision to get rid of its tanks? I say "no," unless the Marines planned to fight so poorly that an enemy could exploit those weaknesses. To be clear, the Marines don't need tanks for their role in the Pacific, which is helping the Navy sink Chinese ships. Beyond that, not so fast. The Marines may even be getting rid of tanks and artillery in order to avoid being a "second army" in large-scale conventional operations.
Because I can:
Yes, I refrain from trying to explain Putin's actions with psychological diagnoses made from afar. If it is so fun and useful, now do Biden.
The Army is looking for money from Congress to ramp up Stinger and Javelin production. That seems prudent.
Watching China slowly steal your territorial waters will do that: "The Philippines and the United States kicked off on Monday their biggest joint military drills since 2015, underscoring improved defence ties after President Rodrigo Duterte had scaled back some earlier war games to pursue warmer ties with China."
As long as Russia is fully occupied fighting Ukraine, Poland is pretty safe.
The Navy ordered six Navy EA-18 Growler electronic countermeasure planes to Germany. If memory serves me, the Navy has the joint ECM mission since the Air Force retired its ECM planes. (Phantom Wild Weasels? Was that the last Air Force plane for that mission?) Stealth planes penetrate air defenses with their stealth and own ECM. Non-stealthy planes need help. Hence the EA-18s.
Even after generations of spewing Jew-hating propaganda, hating Jews isn't enough to prop up Palestinian rulers: "Polls show both Hamas and Fatah (which runs the West Bank) are seen as unfit to rule by over 70 percent of Palestinians."
Until you appreciate Democratic love for mullah-run Iran, this makes no sense: "Israel, along with Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the other Arab Gulf Oil states are very angry with the Americans because the U.S. is not only offering Iran a revival of the 2015 sanctions treaty, but also a modification of the terms to make it easier for Iran to develop nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. Billions of dollars in frozen accounts would be returned to Iran and if the Americans went ahead with taking the Iranian IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) and its Quds Force off the list of known terrorists there would be a lot more violence in the Middle East."
I did not know this took place: "Russian troops are now patrolling the Syria-Israel border along the Golan Heights. ... This is part of an effort to enable the Syrian government, still a dictatorship run by a Syrian Shia Arab Assad group, to abandon decades of dependence on Iranian military and diplomatic support."
Seriously, Air Force? "The American F-35 stealth fighter is very popular with pilots, both American and foreign, who fly it. Despite that the aircraft continues to have readiness problems because of unexpected problems with the F135 engine that powers each aircraft. These problems were predicted after the air force decided to save money by only having one source for the engine." Lack of an alternate engine supplier was unsettling to me. Although I didn't predict problems. Not quite my lane. But my worry was justified. Also, ALIS and software updates are problems. These issues are in the Air Force's lane. This will all be worked out, eventually. But it costs money.
This is BS. The Army needs to focus on and excel at winning wars on the battlefield. We have an entire huge civilian government, too. Let the other parts do the non-fighting things to "win without fighting." It's early in the day, but I need a drink already.
It is a little disturbing that Russia's invasion of Ukraine has already forced America to revise our national defense strategy. Strategy is long term and big picture. It already should have taken Russia' potential to launch a war in Europe into account. If it didn't, it is not a strategy document. It is a procurement justification document.
Wow, the active duty Army will shrink to a size that's pretty much where it was right before September 11, 2001. But it "plans" to expand end strength within 5 years. Good luck with that. Well, something has to give and it won't be the Navy or Air Force.
I've long been in favor of staying in Europe, contrary to whatever Trump might have done in a second term (he seemed more focused on getting out of Germany). But this is nonsense: "The Trump-era strategy effectively abandoned the idea of a U.S. military that could fight in two major regional wars simultaneously in favor of squarely putting the U.S. focus on a possible future conflict with China." Trump did not abandon the two-war strategy. It has been at least 25 years since America had a "two-war" strategy. One of my earliest publications argued about the danger of abandoning that standard while adopting the amazingly worded ability to fight two wars "nearly simultaneously."
From the "Why Wasn't There a Sense of Urgency Much Earlier" files: "As tensions ramp up in the Pacific, the Missile Defense Agency is stepping up its funding for protecting U.S. forces in Guam, according to agency officials."
President Biden's commitment to supply natural gas to Europe was not made in consultation with the actual liquefied natural gas industry. Oh well. It was a nice propaganda statement to look like he is taking concrete action. Tip to Instapundit.
The Marines won't get their first light amphibious warship until 2025. You know what I think of them.
Canada's military has reverted to something more able to take on trucker protests. But I will say Canada stepped up by buying the F-35. That will help North American air defense.
Our media sucks, and I want to scrap it and sell it for usable parts. Let the vast majority who are untrustworthy and frankly mediocre jerks go to work directly for their political party of choice--or learn to code.
Fraud like this destroys faith in government and a willingness to play by the rules: "They came into their riches by participating in what experts say is the theft of as much as $80 billion — or about 10 percent — of the $800 billion handed out in a Covid relief plan known as the Paycheck Protection Program, or PPP." And that's just the start. Why act lawfully when so many others don't and get away with it? That starts to look like being a sucker rather than being a good citizen. The federal government needs to spend far less just to reduce the scope of graft. Tip to Insanity Wrap.
Wait. What? Ancient women gave men the "beer goggles?" Tip to The Morning Briefing.
Or maybe the more masculine you say you are the less likely you are to whine about your life. Tip to Instapundit.
Hunger is coming to North Korea.
Opportunity: "The nine Freedom-class Littoral Combat Ships currently in Navy service –
the youngest of which commissioned in 2020 – have been marked for
disposal as part of the Department of Defense’s Fiscal Year 2023 budget
proposal, USNI News has learned." The Marine Littoral Regiment could use them. If they can be fixed so they don't break down at sea, of course.
The road to Hell is paved with (self-proclaimed) good intentions.
Fighting the labor shortage with ECON 101. But it might as well be magic for many of our credentialed moron officials. Tip to Instapundit.
True, Russia can always bow lower: "[China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi] said China was ready to take their relationship [with Russia] 'into a new era' and 'to a higher level'." The longer Russia's war against Ukraine goes on, the lower Russia will have to bow to China.
It started out 5 years ago with "punch a Nazi"--with mysterious definitions. And now we're down to "slap a guy who says something you don't like--after remembering you shouldn't have laughed at that something."
Are sanctions really going to wreck Russia's economy? Via Instapundit. I admit I was skeptical that sanctions could seriously harm a large country in the long run. We'll see if a long war is even an option for Russia, I guess. But if sanctions are really that effective, Russia might decide nukes are the only weapon to end them. Have a super sparkly day.
Lavrov sucks up to Wang. I regret nothing.
Russians only hear that their army invaded Ukraine to save it from Nazis. So the polling is not shocking: " As of March, polls in Russia showed 58 percent of Russians back the invasion of Ukraine while only 23 percent oppose it." I think Russians should be shown exactly who has died in the Russian army. That gets the cost highlighted and indirectly undermines the notion that Ukrainians welcome Russia. When the war is over and the surviving Russian troops go back home, their war stories will be inconvenient for Putin.
Oops: "Ukrainian forces have captured a lot of modern Russian weapons and military equipment and made these discoveries available to Western countries that are supplying Ukraine with modern weapons and economic and diplomatic pressure on Russia."
Indeed: "If you read between the lines in the administration’s proposed defense budget, though, it seems policymakers don’t really grasp the value of land power in places like the Pacific, and don’t realize sea power would be largely irrelevant in places like Eastern Europe." He's preaching to the choir here on the Pacific. But not about Europe, although I think our NATO allies can exert control of the Baltic Sea without major American naval support.
Greece holds major air force exercises: "Israel is using Inochios 2022 to rehearse some of the combat capabilities it would need to conduct strikes against Iran’s nuclear program." The Saudis are observing.
An American official: "We have information that Putin felt
misled by the Russian military. There is now persistent tension between
Putin and the [Russian Ministry of Defence]." But is it tension that threatens Putin? That's the only kind that really matters. And I don't rule out that a replacement for Putin could be worse from the West's perspective.
Well, yes. I've long said it is a crime against language to believe "liberal minded" is a synonym for "open minded." Tip to Instapundit.
From suppressed thought crime to old news in just two years. Our media is horrible. Democracy dies in darkness, indeed, Tip to Instyapundit.
You have to wonder how the Chinese Communist Party can maintain the Mandate of Heaven as the Xi Jinping Covid-19 virus--and the government response--continues to ravage China.
Russia is in competition with China for influence in the former Soviet republics in Central Asia. But Putin's invasion of Ukraine demonstrated Russia's willingness to attack to bring escaped states back into the empire. And Russia has exposed its military as weaker than advertised. Will Central Asian states look more to China for protection as a result?
Not exactly a sniper, but far from "spray and pray": The M110A1 squad designated marksman rifle will equip one soldier in each Army squad.
I don't blame them: "The presidents of the three Baltic nations agree the time of providing “tripwire” forces to NATO’s eastern front is over and must be replaced with a strengthened “forward defense” to deter future Russian aggression in Europe." But don't be shocked if the rest of NATO isn't eager. Let's not get cocky because Russia screwed up planning and executing their invasion of Ukraine.
People are finally recognizing what I've said for years: Putin is no strategic genius.
The "I can't believe it's not nuclear!" subs.
Putin is failing to get the Soviet-era power and territory back. But he is getting the brain drain. How long before Putin has to rebuild a Berlin Wall to keep people in? It's a package deal. Tip to Instapundit.
Have Russian elites rallied around Putin? Could be. But the bravado may fade as sanctions endure and propaganda is exposed. And then perhaps their positions may change. Or maybe not. Even Maduro and his elites remain in power despite Venezuela collapsing around him and his elites.
I remain shocked that the Russian people have accepted the casualties of the war in Ukraine. But then again I don't know if the Russian people know what the cost has been already.
But is this practically significant? "Putin's inner circle, which once appeared to be in lockstep about the
war and the officially declared reasons for it, is split quite
dramatically between those who want to cut Russia's losses and run and
those who want to fight until the bitter end, to deliver Ukraine in its
entirety to the Russian people." It doesn't sound like "rallying" around Putin. I'm sure it is complicated by competing fears.
Russia freely issues nuclear threats. Putin is the boy who cried "nuke!" And this is a tradition there. I honestly ignore him. Perhaps I shouldn't. But it's their standard operating practice. In the incident mentioned in the first link I would not rule out Russia flying with inert nuclear weapons for the threat without the risk of accidental launch.
OPEC countries won't go along with Biden's requests (via Instapundit): "The oil-producing nations have resisted pressure from the U.S. to pump
more crude as prices soar, exacerbating already sky-high inflation." Maybe if America acted like more of an ally to Arab oil producers instead of gazing googly eyed at Iran's mullahs, Biden would have gotten a different response.
EU hopes spring eternal: "China's reputation is at stake if it helps Russia to evade international
sanctions, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has
warned[.]" Yeah, China hasn't cared about its reputation for its policies on Uighurs, Tibetans, Falun Gong members, the Catholic Church, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Pacific territorial waters, North Korea and its nuclear program, Third World debt bondage, espionage, propaganda, or even millions of deaths after releasing the Covid-19 pandemic globally. But this is what China will care about. The fantasy land the EU lives in lingers on.
Early on, I suggested India as a broker for a peace deal. I'd like India to have Russia's gratitude in order to help India split Russia--long-time arms provider to India--from China. That diplomatic avenue is growing: "India’s relationship with Russia, and its diplomatic balancing act could turn it into an unexpected broker."
Releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is supposed to be for war time when war cuts America off from imported energy. It is not supposed to be used for making up for a president's decisions to lower American fossil fuels production and imports from Canada. Refusing to produce more energy and reducing our strategic reserve. It's like our enemies designed our energy policy.
I'd like to point out that the Soviet Union had to import wheat because it could not produce enough. But Russia is the leading wheat exporter of wheat while Ukraine--formerly enslave inside the USSR--is the fourth. Is there a more damning piece of evidence of the economic absurdity of socialism?
So far Russia's propaganda is working on its own people: "Five weeks into President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, there are signs that the Russian public’s initial shock has given way to a mix of support for their troops and anger at the West."
Russia lost their chance in 2014 to capture a pro-Russian region: "These areas may be broadly Russian-speaking, but they are no longer pro-Russian. 'Mariupol was one of the most pro-Russian cities in Ukraine and to level it is beyond my comprehension,' says defence specialist Konrad Muzyka, head of Rochan Consulting." Russia might reverse that over time, of course. But it is no liberation now.
Australia is preparing to fight China if necessary. But you have to recruit the personnel.
Is America flinching? "A U.S. intercontinental ballistic missile test that was initially postponed in early March to avoid 'misinterpretation' by Russia was recently canceled, the Department of the Air Force said Friday." Or does America know we have little to fear?
The Air Force plans to retire the oldest fifth of its F-22s. The plane is great but old. The money saved could update the rest. And the planes were really just useful for training pilots. Although the least capable combat planes will be needed for that. But then again, a replacement for the F-22 will be developed.
CENTCOM wants more 30,000-pound GBU-57 “bunker buster” bombs. Somebody doesn't trust Iran to decline to produce nuclear weapons.
I did something fun last week. I did my taxes. On paper. It was a real pain this year with college funding issues to figure out. So that wasn't the fun part. I decided to walk to the post office because I didn't want to risk my state returns getting sent back for insufficient postage. When I got there, the entry signage for wearing a mask was ill-maintained. I took that as significant so figured I'd go in mask-less and wait to be told to put one on. I had one in my pocket. After waiting ten minutes in line, the quite friendly young woman at the counter took care of me and even asked if I wanted a receipt, which upon reflection was a nice idea since it showed where my mail went and what date. I smiled, thanked her, and left. Without being told to put a mask on. And without a self-appointed mask deputy customer--everyone else was masked--nagging me. Or do federal buildings no longer require masks?
Sure. Until China makes it accept a base: "Amid a regional backlash, the Solomon Islands said it would not allow a Chinese military base in the Pacific islands nation despite its plans to sign a security pact with Beijing."
Will Google search die? Well, it has been a long time since I've used it. I don't trust the results and I don't trust what Google does with the search data it collects.
Despite the worry about yet another variant, this sounds like victory: "As of Friday, just 2.15% of hospital beds nationwide are in use for COVID-19 patients, according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services." Tip to Instapundit.
I have no doubt that the Biden administration will cave in to this Iranian demand to get the Iran nuclear deal restored: "Talks on restoring the Iran nuclear deal, on pause since early March, remain in a state of limbo over the issue of the listing of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) on a State Department terror black list." I particularly enjoyed how our State Department doesn't count Iranian terrorism if it isn't directed at Americans in Iraq. Also, how did Iran expand a nuclear weapons program that Iran claims not to have?
America decides what stays and what goes. I still think the A-10's role has to be when enemy air defenses aren't present. That can be counter-insurgency, it can be attacking enemy armored units breaking through friendly lines, it could be attacking airheads from enemy airborne insertions, or it could be in pursuit of an enemy in disorganized retreat.
I assume the Chinese are busy figuring out what Russia-based military equipment they have that Russia lost on the battlefield, which is now being examined by NATO countries.
The media only falls for and amplifies certain ... ah, politically convenient ... rumors and conspiracy theories. Tip to Instapundit. Ef our media. And the donkey they rode in on.
