Brexit isn't the cause of British defense shortfalls. Give Britain time as it recovers from the whiplashes of winning the Cold War, the War on Terror, Brexit, and Russia's renewed imperial ambitions.
This author rightly notes that America can't ignore Europe to deal with Asia:
Although China remains the primary long-term challenge to American interests and security, it’s equally clear Russia will remain a spoiler in Europe at least through the end of this decade and possibly longer. Moscow’s conflation of security and subservient buffer states is likely to continue running headlong into the West’s vital interest in sovereignty and self-determination. The deal to send tanks to Ukraine should remind Washington that it must continue to exercise leadership in both theaters vital to the American way of life, carefully balancing the resources necessary to do so in each.
I concur. Bravo. But not because of the issue of supplying tanks to Ukraine shows Germany is wary of acting without America. Germany has its own issues that it hopes immersion in the purifying pacifism of the EU can wash away.
So that's something to quibble with. But then the author went and ruined the ride by saying Britain is reducing its military because of Brexit. Nonsense. This is the record since the tail end of the Cold War of British defense spending:
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Britain voted to leave the European Union in 2016 and didn't actually leave until 2020.
In the year after Brexit, British defense spending dropped. Then rose. And Putin's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 will likely push spending higher.
If you go to the source of that chart for a longer look, you'll also notice that British defense spending declined after the Cold War and then shot up after the 9/11 Islamist terror attacks, peaking in 2007, before dropping to a plateau until 2014, and then dropping fast.
I don't see the Brexit slump alleged. And Britain's government has pledged defense spending increases.
That clearly biased pro-EU statement undermines the author's credibility. How many continental European states in the EU have more capable military force than Britain?
And what problems exist are due to both the price of transitioning, the pandemic and lockdown, and the ongoing European Union effort to punish Britain for leaving the EU lest other peasants get dangerous ideas. Indeed, the proto-empire forces inside Britain are undermining Brexit with bad predictions and neglecting the value of breaking the ankle chains.
Is Britain's army a hot mess? Yes:
A senior U.S. general has recently warned U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace that the British Army is no longer considered to be among the world’s top-tier fighting forces, according to a Sunday report.
But this demotion of the army was a feature and not a bug of post-Cold War Britain that made even more sense post-Brexit.
You can credit pre-Brexit naval investments in large carriers that made the Royal Navy's surface fleet little more than a pool of escorts for a carrier task force for finishing off the big-war British Army.
Until Russia called that policy into question in 2022. I think the British Army will be revived.
Britain will change course to revive the quality of its army if not its quantity very much. The Brexit transition will end and free Britain from the anchor that held it back. And British trade relations with the continent will revive under new terms as the EU finally tires of punishing a NATO state much needed to help Europe protect itself from Russia as America pivots to Asia.
Britain will muddle through and be fine, I dare say.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
