Coping with Surprise

Surprise is valuable for an attacker, but if the defender has reserves of strength, the surprise attack won't be decisive.

One of the reasons I don't like putting more than small and less valuable naval and air units in advanced positions close to potential enemies (like the Persian Gulf) is that the enemy is tempted to target such forward-deployed units in a surprise attack and may hope that the attack will win the war.

I'd rather not dangle vulnerable ships and planes sitting on runway ramps in front of a potential enemy.

I'd routinely only put smaller and less valuable ships forward--which is why I like the LCS in the South China Sea based out of Singapore. Sorry guys, we can afford to lose you more than a carrier or capable missile destroyer.

And keeping all but a small number of our more valuable stealth planes well out of the potential combat zone is my preferred basing strategy.

And then focus on redeploying war-winning forces in a crisis or actual war to the front.

Ground units and ground-based air defenses are a better fit for forward deploying significant forces prior to war. Although even in this, the Marines are redeploying significant strength

I'd rather an enemy surprise air and naval attack hit mostly empty air, and preserve our reserves of strength to wage a war that denies an enemy a quick win.