Israel's army will begin Tuesday a massive exercise simulating conflict with Lebanese movement Hezbollah in the country's north, military sources said, in what would be the largest drill in nearly two decades.
Israel needs to practice given that they screwed the pooch 11 years ago in the last round.
I've said that Israel has incentive to hit Hezbollah in Lebanon when the war in Syria seems to be dying down to maximize the death toll on Hezbollah (2,000 dead so far fighting for Assad) before Hezbollah can redeploy back to Lebanon.
That day seems to be in sight.
And the reasons to hit Hezbollah when they are most vulnerable with so many troops in Syria are strong.
Until these exercises, the story was that Israel was preparing for a conventional opponent way down the line.
This exercise brings that time frame back to right now.
As I've long expected, if there is another war Israel will go into Lebanon in force and in depth all the way to the Bekaa Valley in order to tear up Hezbollah infrastructure and kill as many gunmen and leaders as possible.
And if Israel is smart, they focus as much as possible on Hezbollah while avoiding harming Lebanon's infrastructure and otherwise avoid harming non-Hezbollah people in Lebanon. That approach will make it easier for Arab countries to support Israel while reducing Iran's ability to wage a propaganda war on Israel and on Arab states for backing Israel.
Or will Israel give Syria time to recover and give Iran time to build a new Hezbollah-like force in Syria and reinforce Hezbollah in Lebanon?
