Saturday, September 02, 2017

How the Mighty Have Fallen

In a blast from the past, Strategypage notes the Zapatistas in Mexico:

The EZLN (Zapatista Army of National Liberation) has officially renounced violence. This isn't exactly news. In 2014 leader Subcommandante Marcos indicated that the EZLN's long-running, low-casualty confrontation in Chiapas was over. That confrontation began New Years Day 1994 with a spectacular raid by masked Mayan fighters. Marcos also announced he was changing his nom de guerre to Subcommandante Galeano, to honor a deceased Zapatista fighter. The EZLN has now made common cause with the National Indigenous Congress and intends to work with it in electoral politics. Earlier this year the EZLN endorsed Maria de Jesus Patricio Martinez in the 2018 presidential election even though Mrs. Patricio is a member of the EZLN. She is a left wing activist and an indigenous healer from the Nahua ethnic group (a Mayan group). The EZLN still controls several small villages in the vicinity of San Cristobal de las Casas (Chiapas state).

I'm old enough to remember the media reports in the 1990s swooning over the subcommandante. He took college courses and has an email address! It's netwar! How will he ever be defeated?

Ah, "netwar." Recall the first celebrated practioners of netwar--the Mexican Zapatistas in 1994. You remember them, they netwarred their way into power, seizing Mexico City. No? Then they succeeded in creating an independent state. No? Then they convinced the Mexican government to spend more there. Wow. This example of so-called netwar was a guy with a colorful name, some college education, an internet connection, and a bunch of ill-armed indigenous peoples following him. Add an adoring press and presto! Netwar!

Apparently netwar morphed into netnonviolence. After 23 years, the Zapatistas control several small villages. Tomorrow? The world!

And keep in mind that Mexico under siege by their own corruption and drug cartels that have become virtual insurgencies and substate actors defeated the Zapatista netwar.

Remember this the next time somebody claims that some technology will radically change warfare and allow us to ignore centuries of military history in understanding how we will fight.

When you Twitter a king, kill him.