Tuesday, September 12, 2017

The DCZ Thickens

The Deconfliction Line in Syria seems to be getting more substance:

As the Syrian government forces, backed by allied militias and Russian airstrikes, continue to advance against the Islamic State group in Deir el-Zour, Syria, the U.S.-led coalition says it is monitoring the army to ensure it does not cross a deconfliction zone established across the city. ...

The deconfliction zone in Deir el-Zour was established between the U.S. and Russia in late 2015 to separate their areas of operation in Syria and prevent inadvertent clashes between the two sides.

The vast line starts from the town of Tabqa, roughly 45 kilometers west of IS's self-proclaimed capital, Raqqa, and extends parallel to the Euphrates River that runs across Deir el-Zour toward Al-Bukamal town bordering Iraq. It has divided Deir el-Zour province and city into two parts; SDF operates north and east of the line, and the Syrian government troops and their allied militias are in the west and south.

Will Syria stick to their side despite obviously not really respecting it? Will Iran comply? Will Russia pressure their allies to stand down?

And will America and our allies vigorously strike Syrian or Iranian forces that poke across the line being drawn?

I've noted that we seem to be getting a new DMZ (DeMilitarized Zone, as between North and South Korea) in Syria, although perhaps it is better termed the DCZ (DeConfliction Zone).

The city of Deir el-Zour is divided by this line. I await notice of the construction of Checkpoint Zhar al-Lee to control access between the two parts.

UPDATE: It looks like Deir el-Zour will be on the Assad side of the DCZ:

U.S. Army Colonel Ryan Dillon, a spokesman for the U.S.-led coalition fighting Islamic State, told reporters that the battlefield was already congested and the plan was for the SDF to move down the middle Euphrates River Valley.

"I'll just tell you that the plan is not to go into Deir al-Zor city but there (are) plenty of ISIS fighters and resources and leaders that continue to have holdouts throughout the middle Euphrates River valley," Dillon told reporters in Washington through a video briefing.

The Euphrates River sure looks like the basis of the DCZ path.

UPDATE: Yeah, looking like a partition:

U.S.-backed Syrian militias will not let government forces cross the Euphrates River in their bid to recover eastern Syria, setting a red line for President Bashar al-Assad as both sides converge on Islamic State in Deir al-Zor, their commander said.

Militia commander Abu Khawla said a civilian administration would be set up to run areas of Deir al-Zor province being captured from Islamic State by his fighters, including its oil fields. The Syrian government was "not fit to lead and rule the people", he said.

Am I wrong to assume the coalition would militarily support that line along the river?