It seems to me that a dividing line is developing in eastern Syria that marks the effective border of Assad's Syria on that side of the country.
But Assad isn't totally on board that notion, it seems:
Syrian troops crossed to the eastern side of the Euphrates in Deir al-Zor on Monday, state media and a monitoring group said, increasing their presence in an area where U.S.-backed militias have also advanced.
The rival forces are conducting offensives against Islamic State and have generally stayed out of each other's way, with the river often acting as a dividing line.
Will Russia deny their ally support across the river? That restraint is looking doubtful:
Russia on Thursday issued a stern warning to U.S. forces and their allies in Syria, saying it has deployed Russian special forces alongside Syrian government troops in the battle for the oil-rich Deir el-Zour province and that Moscow would retaliate if the Russians come under fire.
Something has changed for Russia. In the summer I would have bet that Russia was uninterested in fighting for Assad's eastern provinces, content to have Russian bases in the west and willing to prevent Iran from getting a land bridge to Hezbollah.
What has changed? Has Russia concluded that Iraq will cut that land line of supply, making it unnecessary for Russia to play the bad guy with Assad and Iran on this issue?
Is Russia more determined to confront America and force us to back down?
Or is this just part of talks to define the line more precisely?
Colonel Ryan Dillon, a spokesman for the US-led coalition battling the Islamic State (IS) group in Iraq and Syria, said the officers this week met face-to-face "in the region" to exchange information about Deir Ezzor province, where US-backed local forces are operating ever closer to Russian-backed Syrian regime troops.
"The discussions emphasized the need to share operational graphics and locations to ensure... prevention of accidental targeting or other possible frictions that would distract from the defeat of ISIS," Dillon said, using an alternate acronym for IS.
With the battle for Raqqa in the end stage, America will have choices to make about supporting those in Syria who helped us defeat the ISIL caliphate in Syria. Do we abandon them to Assad's tender mercies or help those local allies resist the Russian-assisted offensive?
What will we do?
UPDATE: Pro-Assad forces are on the move:
On the desert road back from Deir al-Zor to government-held areas in the west, a stream of military convoys was passing, according to the Reuters journalists.
With war coming to the east bank of the Euphrates, the convoys were carrying amphibious armored vehicles, bridge parts and boats.
Is this just to operate in the city of Deir al-Zor and the associated air field, or is this for a general operation east of the Euphrates River?
Further north in Raqqa, American-backed Syrians are cornering ISIL and preparing to wipe them out.
UPDATE: America-backed forces took a gas field in the province. Which will help their finances in the long run. But there are risks of clashes:
Syrian troops supported by Iranian-backed militias have also crossed to the eastern side of the river, increasing their presence in an area where U.S.-backed militias have also advanced.
Perhaps the pro-Assad forces are crossing just to take the city and airfield.
UPDATE: American-backed Syrians are working for province-level governance:
U.S.-allied militias in northern Syria announced on Saturday the formation of a civilian council to govern the oil rich eastern province of Deir al Zor where they are racing with the Syrian army to capture territory held by Islamic State.
Will Syria fight these people? Will we back them? Will Russia back Assad?
