Is Russia's invasion of Ukraine a wake-up call for European defense preparation? But don't you dare confuse the European Union with "Europe". The distinction is important to America, to defending Europe, and for actual European democracy.
The Europeans have been struck with the clue bat over the last year of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. And they now realize how low their military capacity has sunk:
And though they are in better shape than the Bundeswehr, the armies of the United Kingdom and France — Europe’s traditional key players when it comes to defense — are struggling as well: The British army is burdened with old equipment and needs real investment in equipment modernization and training, while the French armed forces, though adept at small, expeditionary campaigns, urgently need modernization as well. As France’s former chief of staff remarked recently, the French army “does not have the means for a high-intensity war.”
And yet, calls for European “strategic autonomy” persist, despite glaring evidence that without the U.S., the Continent’s armies lack the equipment, training and, most of all, the logistical capacity that’s made supplying Ukraine possible in the first place.
In light of the changing distribution of power in Europe, as flank countries rally to address the Russian threat by working closely with the U.S., talk of an independent European military capable of projecting significant power now sounds like a quaint echo of a bygone era.
Even though Russia has proven to be a less-than-impressive military power, Russia has proven capable of continuing to fight despite heavy casualties. This kind of effort would have ruined any European state.
After claiming to see no threats on the horizon, continental defense may be a priority for Europeans again, as I wished--despite my short post-9/11 detour on the issue. Although in my defense I was hoping Europeans would interrupt their post-Cold War military slide by building even some military power relevant to the war on terror.
And not that America didn't do the same thing until reality could not be ignored any longer.
My view is that "Europe"--that is, the European Union (which is different than "Europe")--has pursued "strategic autonomy" not to build defense capacity but to undermine NATO. Which would reduce America's influence in Europe.
And less American influence will mean less European democracy.
Is Russia's war on Ukraine going to shock the nations of Europe into building up their military capacity within NATO to create actual military capacity?
Or will the proto-imperial European Union continue its quest to strip away the prefix with any excuse--including defense against predators?
UPDATE: Another call to encourage the EU to take control of European defenses:
If Europeans do not reform their fragmented defense forces and procurement systems now, they will soon be back where they started before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The opportunity to transform European defense is slipping away.
I can understand why the EU apparatchiki and their imperial fanboys (and girls) want to end the "fragmented" forces and systems.
And I can understand why Americans want Europeans--and again, don't conflate Europeans with the EU--to build up their defense capabilities. Those capabilities have fallen to dangerous levels. And building them up within NATO is good.
But at some point, Americans have to be very careful of what we wish for.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
