Out of Area

It is good to see that NATO is evolving to operate out of area on short notice. As others have noted, the Cold War largely disguised the fact that European nations no longer were powers with real global power (other than the British, that is). The continent’s role during the Cold War was to be a huge tough immovable block of concrete that the Soviets could not shove into the English Channel. The fact that this very local responsibility had global consequences hid the lack of real global power. The inability of the Europeans to mount an invasion of modest proportions in the Balkans in 1999 and their equally embarrassing lack of air power, finally laid bare this truth. Keeping NATO relevant has been the post-Cold War era dilemma. During that age it never did get a real answer. Now, in the new post-post-Cold War world, the Age of Terror, NATO has a reason to exist.

America is giving them the reason. On the heels of the obviously out-of-reach European goal of creating an entire corps capable of deploying out of area independent of NATO and America, the Europeans are embracing a more modest American proposal that a 21,000-strong force be capable of moving out of area in a week’s notice. Apparently, even the Europeans can see that defending themselves can no longer take the form of being a massive concrete block. The Red Army is not coming. Suicidal maniacs who hatch their plans in distant backwaters and then fly in on economy class do threaten them. The only option to defend Europe in this case is to have a small concrete block that you can carry around the globe and then drop on the heads of the offending party.

This is a welcome change. First of all, it allows Europe to actually help us with new power instead of just substituting for our troops. Now, since we have to carry them and supply them, the Europeans are more window dressing. Don’t get me wrong, their help even under these circumstances is welcome and useful, but it is a far cry from having allies who transport and feed themselves, in addition to fighting. Second, this modest force may decrease the urge to appease. If European weeniness is indeed a rational product of their inability to do anything militarily, perhaps some muscle may get them to think more like us when threats arise. If they have the choice of being very, very quiet so that nobody notices them (and attacks) or actually stomping on somebody that issues a threat, maybe, perchance, the Europeans will say, “Hey, we can kill them.” In an age when such threats do not usually require large forces to defeat, and when America is still here when they do, Europeans unwilling to actually pay for defense can still buy a military that can fight and win. Allowing countries to contribute niche capabilities will make this even more appealing and affordable when Europe can avoid duplicating capabilities across all the NATO members. Third, by embracing a small power projection force, within NATO, Europe will abdicate some ridiculous pretensions that they could become a rival military power to “balance” America. That notion was so insulting (as well as being practically silly; are they really saying that they would fight us when they can’t seem to muster moral outrage and martial ardor against actual thugs?) that it will be nice to see it die. And with niche capabilities, the need for consensus before the force can deploy will mean America will continue to lead NATO. Unless we pull them along, will the Europeans actually muster the agreement to fight alone outside of NATO? When one or two nations who pull their unique capabilities will leave a gaping hole in the force if they disagree with the goal of the war? That is one weakness of the force. Although it may be capable technically of going in a week, will the Europeans all sign on in that amount of time? Still, having a force able to go within a week of getting a “go” order is useful even if it takes months to get the order.

Our allies might start acting like real allies. It would be nice if I could go back to thinking of them as friends as I once did.