I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
All for one and one for all: "Sweden will contribute up to three warships to a NATO effort to increase the alliance's presence in the Baltic Sea as it tries to guard against sabotage of underwater infrastructure, the government said Sunday."Plus coast guard vessels and some aircraft.
But will it be decisive? "The army in Sudan says it has captured a key city in the country's east, one of its biggest gains yet in an almost two-year-long war against rebel forces." All I know for sure is that abandoning colonial borders and splitting off South Sudan didn't end conflict.
Yeah: "While Iranian offensive capabilities have been neutralized, they have
not been eliminated. Iran can rebuild. There can be no peace in the
Middle East as long as Iranian interference continues. ... interference
stems from Iranian internal problems as well as Iranian efforts to
dominate the region." Cut the knot.
A growing pile of dead North Korean soldiers isn't changing the basic situation in the Winter War of 2022: "Unlike World War II, the Russians invaded Ukraine and are losing. Russia’s ability to continue the war is clearly less than Ukraine’s provided NATO and US support continues." Probably "less than".
There seems to be something wrong with our bloody flag officers today. The design for the Navy's next destroyer lacks even a single still-vital dual purpose 5" gun as well as adequate windows for the Mark I eyeballs as the situational awareness of last resort.
Well that's a positive change: "The Army is already nearly halfway to meeting its ambitious goal of recruiting 61,000 active-duty soldiers during this fiscal year, according to internal data reviewed by Military.com." Pre-boot camp training is given the credit.
The California National Guard is needed to cope with Los Angeles fires.
Oops: "The Polish defense minister dismissed a high-ranking general who is allegedly responsible for losing anti-tank mines eventually found in IKEA warehouse, Polish news outlet Onet reports." Sadly, nobody could reassemble the mines.
I worry our bureaucracy takes a cheap weapon and makes it a needlessly expensive one: "The Army is scouring industry for unmanned aircraft systems to launch from medium- or high-altitude platforms that would perform tasks like intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance[.]"
As I often say, the soldier is the weapon--not what the soldier carries, even a spoon.
The proto-empress is fine! Mind your own business, peasants! "The European Commission denied on Monday that it had tried to cover up the state of health of its president, Ursula von der Leyen, after the head of the EU’s executive branch was hospitalized with severe pneumonia." She'll go back to work soon.
I think this is a fair evaluation of Ukraine's Kursk incursion. Could Ukraine withdraw if it saw the costs exceeding the benefits? Or is holding the ground the end rather than the means at this point?
Spilling oil rather than blood: "Ukraine’s battlefield experience reflects a shift toward unmanned systems that augment or attempt to replace human operators in the most dangerous missions, and against an enemy willing to send more and more manpower into large-scale frontal assaults."
Yeah, calling it "hybrid war" obscures the "war" part: "When Russia targets other European neighbors, though, the West resorts to its own euphemisms to avoid directly acknowledging what Putin is doing." Basically, Russia attacks a country while denying it is doing so. And the West goes along with that lie.
Via Instapundit, a "former" Russian mercenary apparently from Kazaksstan was caught crossing into America illegally across the Mexico border carrying a drone. That's odd. Why bring in a drone when he could buy one here? And it is unclear if he was released or not.
Well, it's preparation of a sort: "American troops recently joined a 12-nation parachute drill near Tokyo to hone skills needed to recapture remote islands." It's not even as good as racing China to an island to get there first.
Denmark's "peace dividend" became a vulnerability debt. Tip to Instapundit.
Decoys: " Italian defense firm Leonardo recently developed BriteStorm, a more capable disposable air-launched decoy to protect aircraft from enemy aerial and ground based air defenses."
Listening to senators who oppose Hegseth as DOD secretary wrongly--or dishonestly--claim his opposition to lax standards for the small percentage of combat arms that allow more women to qualify means he opposes women in the rest of the military. It is frustrating to watch this disinformation.
Russia's war on Ukraine is wrecking Russia's ability to project power around its borders. Which also mean to defend Russia's long borders, I judge.
I'm never sure if these are tests are just using expiring missiles for propaganda: "North Korea fired several suspected short-range ballistic missiles off its eastern coast Tuesday morning in its second day of testing so far this year, according to the South’s Joint Chiefs of Staff."
Go Blue. Go away Red: "The University of Michigan will no longer partner with a Chinese university whose former students face federal charges after they were allegedly caught photographing a military base."
I cited the non-NATO Joint Expeditionary Force, which is made up of NATO members, as having a role in defeating a Russian "little green men" invasion of Estonia that takes the border city of Narva in this Army article. Here's more on JEF. It's basically a framework for a British-led coalition of the willing.
Singing to the TDR choir: "The EU is a far bigger threat to democracy than Musk[.]" Seriously.
Oh? "Peace seems to have broken out between India and China." It's a ceasefire. China took a step back. Perhaps to reload. Perhaps to focus on the western Pacific where the Philippines feels pushed "to the wall." But peace? No.
Weird: "The Idaho National Guard deployed 10 UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters and more than 80 soldiers to Ft. Belvoir, Va., on Jan. 10 and 11 in support of the Joint Emergency Evacuation Plan mission in the National Capital Region." Why the Guard? It's good training. But it isn't a defense or disaster mission.
The Navy is pondering how to arm its next destroyer class. And it needs a lot electrical power. Which has a lot of uses for future warships. Please include guns.
The Navy has fired over 400 missiles and shells for air defense missions in the Red Sea region: "120 SM-2 missiles, 80 SM-6 missiles, 160 rounds from destroyers and cruisers’ five-inch main guns, as well as a combined 20 Evolved Sea Sparrow Missiles (ESSM) and SM-3 missiles."
Germany will provide Ukraine with RCH 155 self-propelled howitzers and Boxer infantry fighting vehicles, both wheeled and based on the same chassis. Germany has stepped up to aid Ukraine. But it needs much more if it is to field more than three army divisions.
So-called "hybrid war" is nothing new: "A lot of what is proclaimed as new is just another case of old wine in new bottles. If you want solutions, look to the ones that worked in the past. Many still work or will with a few tweaks to account for new technology." Hybrid war isn't magic--it's denials all around.
Russia beefs of defenses in far-north Murmansk because: "Ukrainian drones are increasingly reaching their targets deep inside Russia. That means Russian economic and military facilities far from Ukraine are suddenly under attack."
The Marines gutted their close combat capabilities to field sea mobile anti-ship units. The Marines don't have the missiles or ships to do that. But at least those close combat capabilities are gutted! As I wondered about the Marines, "Don't sink. Don't shoot. What do you do?"
I do not deny that drones haven't had a large impact on the war in Ukraine. But I believe their success is in part driven by lack of counter-measures. Russian failures add to that but I don't know the scale of that. When counter-measures are developed, more expensive drones will be part of the combined arms effort.
The latest CRS report to Congress on the Marine Littoral Regiment created under Force Design.
Yeah: "The geopolitical consequences of Ukraine’s defeat would reverberate across the global system in disastrous ways for U.S. security." Russia strengthened; enemies encouraged; allies discouraged; the need for much more defense spending; and nuclear proliferation, for example.
Developments is South Korea's political drama. Weird martial law coup attempt, political dispute run amok, pre-civil war, or ... what? It could damage South Korea's democracy if not addressed and resolved. Rule of law is valuable and fragile, people. Tip to Instapundit.
Russia's isolated outpost in the Balkans--Serbia--doesn't think fellow Slav Russia is its protector: "As international sanctions continue to pressure Moscow, Belgrade is now shopping for military gear in other countries, such as Israel and China, but also in the West."
SM-3 production capacity will be increased.
Israel has cleared a path to strike Iran from the air through Syria. With an assist of the collapse of the Assad regime and Iran's retreat from Syria. Further, de-fanging Hezbollah eliminates Iran's primary retaliation option.
Sure: "Japan and the Philippines will convey to President-elect Donald Trump the urgent need for the U.S. to remain committed to help uphold the rule of law in an Asian region where security concerns have become 'increasingly severe,' Japan’s top diplomat said Wednesday."
Good: " Britain’s government confirmed Wednesday that it will not finalize a deal to hand over sovereignty of the contested Chagos Islands to Mauritius until President-elect Donald Trump’s administration is consulted." We need that base. If Britain needs backing, provide it.
Good: "India’s navy on Wednesday simultaneously launched a submarine, a destroyer and a frigate built at a state-run shipyard, underscoring the importance of protecting the Indian Ocean region through which 95% of the country’s trade moves amid a strong Chinese presence." A lot of China's trade sails there, too.
The Navy wants more affordable commercial ships than the LAW/LSM could provide to move Marines around the Pacific. Our heavily protected warships need to be careful in that contested environment. So good luck Marines at the ass end of nowhere.
Good experience for facing off against Chinese aggression in the South China Sea: "The United States Coast Guard arrested human smugglers who crashed into their patrol boat during a getaway attempt and attacked them, according to court documents."
This complaint is BS: "Reported Trump ‘loyalty tests’ for national-security officials draw criticism[.]" The issue is staff loyalty to the Constitution and following lawful orders of the president. The problem was that too many were loyal to those out of power who opposed Trump the last term. I managed this in my career.
Yes: "Islamic terrorism is more of a threat to Moslems than anyone else, including the United States and Israel." This is why I've often described the West's war with Islamists as basically collateral damage in an Islamic Civil War to decide if normal people--who need our help--or bloody fanatics define Islam.
Via Instapundit, Putin's Potemkin Steamroller: "The most important thing Russian President Vladimir Putin tries to impress on Ukraine’s western friends is that he has time on his side, so the only way to end the war is to accommodate his wishes." His economy is not as resilient or successful as he pretends it is.
Canada must become an Arctic superpower. Endorsed!
The West is using the interest from Russian deposits frozen in the West to help Ukraine resist Russia's invasion. Given that Russia is selling wheat harvested from Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory, couldn't the West identify that trade and subtract the value of that from the principle to send it to Ukraine?
How Putin betrayed American hope for change. Putin is one of many suit-wearing thugs who Westerners see reflecting their own fantasies of cultivating a man "we can do business with" and turn a foe into a friend. That never turns out well.
A call to exploit China's ASW weaknesses and sea trade routes by using undersea weapons, including mines, to operate close to China with less risk than air or surface assets to deter China. There are no silver bullets. But exploiting our advantages and enemy weaknesses is surely a good way to start.
This article notes that in the former Soviet "stans" of Central Asia, China has greater economic interests while Russia has greater security ties. Sure, Russia is not weakened as much as the West would like. But I believe this asymmetrical balance gives China the advantage because the flag will follow trade.
Another former imperial state with centuries of being a colonial ruler seeks to restore its Ottoman era imperial glory: "The Mediterranean has always been a theater of rivalries, shifting alliances, and calculated gambles, and Turkey has once again thrown its dice."
Sort it out, ROK! "The South Korean authorities discovered a 164-foot tall and wide steel framework installed by the PRC within the Provisional Measures Zones (PMZ) of the Yellow Sea in December 2024. This installation is part of the PRC’s ongoing efforts to assert territorial control over the disputed [sea.]"
As Russia continues its war on Ukraine, sanity, and needed good relations with NATO, let's go back a dozen years to my frustration with the path Russia had embarked on to reach this era of (hopefully) Peak Strategersky.
Ottoman glories beckon! "The Turkish navy is wrapping up the weeklong Mavi Vatan 2025 exercise this week, a large-scale operation meant to showcase Ankara’s strategic maritime ambitions in the region and beyond." Ambitions for influence or dominance in former realms.
Rising sun: "While Japan’s Cabinet has approved a record defense budget for 2025, the 13th growth year in a row, Tokyo’s military posture vis-à-vis regional threats remains a work on progress, according a U.S. analyst." China shot itself in the foot regarding Japan.
American warships in the Red Sea are gone for weeks to reload. It's a "challenge" there. Against China, every swinging hull in the fight would matter every day.
The 100-year pact between Britain and Ukraine isn't a mutual defense treaty. But it is a very wide-ranging pact for cooperation that strengthens Ukraine.
Germany's plan that I mentioned before to create a reserve internal security army division.
Patriot air defense batteries are combat proven and many nations--including Ukraine--have them. The replacement will need to be mobile to survive new threats. With a digression (because they can!) into sanctions-related potential unrest in Russia.
As Secretary of Defense Austin ends his uninspiring tenure, I must say that I have massive and enduring respect for his command of Third Infantry Division, which set the Middle East land speed record during the Iraq War invasion. Best of wishes.
Tension: "The Philippine navy said on Friday its ships were holding drills near a contested shoal in the South China Sea, a day after Manila and Beijing agreed to seek common ground and find ways to cooperate despite ongoing disputes."
A Navy ship's helicopter--a first for the Navy--shot down a Houthi drone in the Red Sea. Was it a machine gun, guided 70mm rocket, or a Hellfire missile--or something else? I recall that in the Falklands War, helicopters were the last-ditch passive defense for British warships. Egad, eh?
A Russian S-400 air defense system locked on to a French maritime patrol craft flying over international waters in the Baltic Sea. Russia counts on a plane crew not being worried enough to fire off an anti-radiation missile to take out the radar.
Good: "The U.S. Navy carried out a crash program last year to enable Freedom class littoral combat ships (LCS) armed with radar-guided AGM-114L Longbow Hellfire missiles to fire those weapons against uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) — in other words, drones." But now offensive missions take the back seat.
The Battle for the Red Sea drags on.
Drones versus warships. Ukraine is certainly effective in using them as anti-access/area denial weapons. But they rely on NATO recon and targeting data. Anti-ship missiles would be much more effective with that data. It seems Russia pulled back because the cost wasn't worth the benefit of challenging the threat.
The Axis of Countries Getting Their Asses Kicked forms: "Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the Russia-Iran Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement on January 17." Does China want these anchors pulling it down? They are alerting--not distracting--the West.
Well, the best Detroit Lions regular season ever ended prematurely. One can say our injury-ravaged defense finally caught up with us. But we've coped up to now. The sad fact is that we turned the ball over too many times. The Commanders voted too, and defeated us.
For some class of Westerners, the primary worry is always the backlash rather than the actual lash.
Industrialized Taiwan can't feed itself. Taiwan has prepared for a blockade by China: "Currently Taiwan has stockpiles of food that can feed the population for about seven months." And I noted the "dead-man's switch" Taiwan holds to get help before the food runs out.
Strategypage again notes the rise of drones in the Winter War of 2022, but also notes what I've long noted, that it was accelerated by a shortage of artillery. Ukraine ran low on artillery ammo and Russia ran out of gun barrels. When things settle down, small drones will be a valued part of combined arms operations.