Ukraine still stands in 2025. That is an achievement despite the loss of lives and territory and despite the disappointing but much-heralded summer 2023 counteroffensive. One thing the lengthy Russian war to conquer Ukraine despite its own massive casualties should teach the West is that Russia wants land and people more than it wants Western friendship. Stop pretending the right deal will satisfy Russia's imperial ambitions and make Russia our friend.
The war goes on in Ukraine as 2025 begins. The basic story hasn't changed much for many months. Russia bombards Ukraine's cities while on the ground it grinds forward at the cost of huge casualties and equipment losses while its economic machine is also leaking fluids and popping rivets; while troop-starved Ukraine attacks Russian logistics from the air (mostly drones) and at sea (mostly with sea drones).
Ukraine's brief admittedly impressive counteroffensive into Kursk in the latter part of 2024 evolved into one more part of Russia's costly ground grind. Ukraine seems to have renewed their attack, but so far the scale, objective, and intended duration are unclear:
Ukraine has launched a fresh offensive in Russia's Kursk region, the Russian defence ministry says.
As the completion of three years of war nears, war weariness is growing. It is most evident in NATO and Ukraine, but have no doubt it exists in Russia, too. The West should seek to increase the weariness in Russia to gain victory to stop Russia in Ukraine before it moves further west. Stop Russia hard enough, now, and maybe Russians will be willing to face up to the real threat to Russia's survival as a great power rather than conceal its appeasement of China by threatening NATO, which was no military threat until Russian aggression provoked a response.
NATO did not provoke Russia's centuries-old imperial ambitions:
The Russian Federation is a top-down imperialist power. In its current form, the systemic nature of this empire offers no path forward for the West to reach a lasting modus vivendi with Moscow. Russia can be blocked and contained, as it was during the half-century of the Cold War, but until a fundamental systemic change occurs inside Russia that would begin to transform its political culture, the idea of turning Russia into a responsible stakeholder in the international system by satisfying its current demands will remain a pipedream.
And remember there is no logical limit to Russia's ambitions in the west. Let's focus on America's need for a buffer in Europe. A buffer built not on conquest but on the willing cooperation of partner countries who fear Russia's brand of a buffer of crushed vassals.
Russia's armed forces were once parked on the Elbe River within striking distance of the Rhine. It may seem crazy to think Russia could advance that far through NATO when its first step could be very small. But Russia's empire was built over centuries. Just because much of Russia's empire was lost in only two years doesn't mean the revival of that threat can only be measured in that short time frame.
For some parting advice, this author states it well:
For now, we must kill the idea that Putin is “winning” the war. It has been a colossal failure. The tragedy is the West may be about to reward Putin with enough territory for him to claim otherwise, turning defeat into victory.
Who will decide--whether by choice or events--it is not up to another lap of war into 2026?
UPDATE (Monday): I'm not sure of the scale of Ukraine's attacks in the Kursk salient. The initial August 2024 attack seemed much smaller than it was. But that may have been disinformation based on counting just the initial assault elements of a much larger force poised to join the attack.
UPDATE (Monday): Minds greater than mine have no idea what Ukraine is doing in the Kursk salient, what the objective is, or what else is planned.
UPDATE (Tuesday): Thoughts on ending the war and preparing for when Russia resumes its invasion.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War and the related Syria events in this post.
NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
NOTE: I made the image with Bing, after rewording the request to get around whatever "unsafe" image they thought I was asking for. God save us from the algorithms.
