How much of a variety of options "not enough" to invade Taiwan adds up to enough for China to defeat Taiwan?
An author I respect is not impressed with China's civilian amphibious lift options for invading Taiwan. He's not wrong in his assessment of sea-based lift. But with a "thousand grains of sand" approach, "too little" capability in any single means across sea, air, and pre-war infiltration method can add up to sufficient lift to win. Especially if you define "win" differently than we in the West do:
I think China holding a significant bridgehead regardless of the trend signifies a Chinese victory. Eventually a ceasefire will take hold, whether or not it is official. And then China will build up its forces on Taiwan for months or years until it can resume the invasion. Or until the threat of a resumed overland invasion undermines Taiwan's resolve to resist their giant neighbor.I think China can throw troops across the strait with amphibious warfare ships, military-compliant civilian transports, old coast guard warships, paratroopers, airlift by planes, airlift by helicopters and other air transport, and pre-war infiltration.
Taiwan needs to get its small active army ready and sent to fight at the Chinese beachheads and airheads. But a good number will need to be held in reserve in case initial landings are diversions. Just as the Germans did not employ their early numerical advantage in France to defeat the D-Day landings when the invasion force was small and vulnerable.
And I suspect most Taiwan reservists are useful only for rear area garrisons with perhaps some good enough to replace losses in the active forces.
And when you add up the rate of putting Chinese troops on Taiwan and compare it to the number of active duty troops Taiwan can deploy, Taiwan is not safe from China building up a reasonable superiority in the north to drive on Taipei, the capital.
And if Taiwan prevents China from capturing Taipei, even that may be insufficient to deny China a victory. If China establishes bridgeheads and airheads, the proper calculation of relative combat power is whether Taiwan has enough troops to drive the invaders into the sea. That, as I argued in Military Review, is the key to defeating China.
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