Thursday, August 24, 2023

A Line in the South China Sea

The Philippines is trying to get out of the vice that China placed on it and has been squeezing. Sierra Madre is ground zero right now.

The Philippines clearly wanted to resist China's subliminal aggression in the South China Sea:

The immediate focus is likely to be on resupplying the beleaguered BRP Sierra Madre garrison, which the government has indicated it intends to do soon—for practical as well as political reasons.

You recall Sierra Madre. I had wondered if the Filipino coast guard would resupply it to keep the struggle in the white hull (coast guard) arena rather than using grey (navy) hulls? 

Their navy? If so, perhaps the Philippines seeks to dare China to respond to Filipino use of minor force by escalating to war and risking conflict with America and other allies over a small patch of land.

I've suggested the Berlin Airlift-East to minimize the risk of war while avoiding defeat. But the Philippines succeeded with a surface mission

As a United States Navy plane circled overhead, two Philippine boats breached a Chinese coast guard blockade in a dangerous confrontation Tuesday in the disputed South China Sea to deliver food and other supplies to Filipino forces guarding a contested shoal.

The resupply boats were civilian vessels and the Filipino coast guard was there to watch over them. Reporters were aboard the Filipino vessel, too. Which I've mentioned.

And as America had signaled, it stood behind the Philippines in the air.

Ultimately the Philippines needs to pour a lot of concrete to replace or reinforce and expand that beached ship serving as a scarecrow outpost. Make it permanent and perhaps China will give up on outlasting the Philippines.

Or perhaps build a new ship designed to be grounded and used as a base. 

And do that before China decides to try out its shiny amphibious warfare ships and marines to assault and take the shoal.

UPDATE: U.S. Navy:

Vice Admiral Karl Thomas assured the Philippines of U.S. backing in the face of "shared challenges" in the region, saying: "My forces are out here for a reason."

UPDATE: Yeah, that might be useful to practice:

Australian and Filipino forces, backed by U.S. Marines, practiced retaking an island seized by hostile forces in a large military drill Friday on the northwestern Philippine coast facing the disputed South China Sea.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.