Ukraine seems to be winning slowly. But Russia is buying time to run out the clock on the campaigning season. Can Ukraine crack open the Russian lines before we're looking at preparing Ukraine for a 2024 offensive? And if that happens, can Russia regain the initiative with a new influx of recruits and older weapons? And if that happens, will the West sustain Ukraine's war effort? Will Ukrainian morale falter as victory looks too far away to endure more war?
The human toll on the Ukrainian battlefield:
"The Russians have lost about 350,000 troops, of whom 100,000 are dead, missing, prisoners or deserters, and Ukrainians casualties are about 200,000 of whom 50,000 are killed, missing and captured."
This gives me hope that the Ukrainians might crack the Russian defenders:
"[Ukraine] uses its superiority in weapons, training and leadership so the Ukrainians are defeating the Russians in many smaller battles, where the Ukrainians make sure they have the advantage before attacking. This takes advantage of the poor morale, leadership and training most Russian troops have."
And:
"Who is winning is mainly about money and access to lots of modern weapons. The Ukrainians have a big edge here, having received nearly a hundred billion dollars in aid from NATO countries so far."
I wrote last summer that Russia's larger size than Ukraine (three times the population and nine times the GDP) didn't necessarily mean Russia could out-die and out-produce Ukraine in a long war:
"Like Iran, Russia has a 3:1 advantage in population. But Russian morale as a conqueror, that is clearly not liberating people from Nazis, is not superior. This could break Russia before Ukraine. Just how do we define the transition from the short run to the long run?
What about GDP and defense spending? You'd think Russia clearly has the edge with a 9:1 GDP advantage.
But Russia is under Western sanctions that will harm Russia's ability to go to war production levels. Russian Soviet-era stockpiles will run low in time--or reach the material and ammo almost more dangerous to Russian users than Ukrainian targets.
And Ukraine is being supplied by the West, which has an immensely greater GDP advantage than Russia's advantage over Ukraine. So you can't just count the value of the arms and services provided to Ukraine when comparing the economic advantage. You'd have to count the research and development and logistics value on Ukraine's side of the ledger that provides the weapons, supplies, and services.
So when you compare the scientific, industrial, and military effort on both sides, is Russia really superior in material?"
Ukraine is starting to penetrate what may be the most formidable Russian defenses around Robotyne. But does Ukraine have enough time before weather and NATO resolve run out? And what political forces are maneuvering inside Russia out of clear sight that might undermine Russia's war effort?
I just don't know who is capable of fighting longer. And if we reach 2024 we will begin to see who falters under the three-year rule that marks the beginning of American public war fatigue in even the most just war. That may affect the Ukrainians and Russians, too, eh?
UPDATE (Saturday): Strategypage:
One reason why the current Ukrainian offensive in southern Ukraine has been so successful is the poor morale of the few Russian troops still around to defend Russian occupied territory.
They seem overly optimistic. Yes, Ukraine is hollowing out the Russian defenses. This is a success. But Russia is buying time to escape the campaign season with minimal territory losses. Russia could divert troops from the east, where Russia is still attacking, to string the counteroffensive out. And then Russia has another winter to rebuild its ground forces.
Of course, if a big chunk of Russia's army collapses soon and Ukraine dashes to the Sea of Azov, this will look brilliant. That's been my hope for a while that Russia has been defying.
Ukraine seems to be expanding its apparent main effort and pushing the Russians back a bit faster the last several weeks. Perhaps this is a sign that the Russians are significantly weakening on the southern front.
NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
